London is a flater and faster course and Mo will be able to draft behind someone the whole way.
When Kenny ran Paris he was all alone after 25km which was difficult for him.
Taking in to consideration. mo passed out after running a 1:02 in Nyc, Mo will probably dnf or run no better than 2:06 and change.
No. I think based on the nature of Farah's tactics, he will probably not stray from the lead pack at all until the final 2 or 3 kilometers of the race. Thus, he will save himself for the end, as he normally does.
More importantly, will Mo FINISH the marathon? Does he have the nutrition aspects down and the discipline to know when to hold back when others surge (Mutai et al.)Forgive me as I can't remember the link, but I recall Arne Gabius saying that Mo had only just learned how to drink while running recently!He is in for a surprise...
mitchellmac2 wrote:
No. I think based on the nature of Farah's tactics, he will probably not stray from the lead pack at all until the final 2 or 3 kilometers of the race. Thus, he will save himself for the end, as he normally does.
Farah is debuting on a course, that until yesterday, was 3 minutes + faster. Farah should be able to debut at a 2:03:45ish.
He'll pass halfway in 1:01:10. Break the field at 35k and Farah will win.
Recap on my bold predictions:
1: Half way at 1:01:10
2. Break the field at 35k
3. Win debut
4. Run a 2:03:45ish
BobbyM wrote:
No.
Farah is a fraud of a champion winning championships with a kick against 2nd tier competition. Bekele is the real deal.
2nd tier competition including Bekele(2012 Olympic 10k FOURTH PLACER)???
If Farah beat the 2nd tier that is Bekele, he can certainly beat that 2nd tier, substandard, sub-elite time.
Farah might have won against 2nd tier comp, but Bekele LOST to 2nd tier comp.
Would Nike/London Marathon be willing to give extra money to racers still with Mo at 35km-40km? Mo is the golden child of British Athletics right now. And the birth child of Nike and Salazar... Can't lose face when so much was spent on an appearance fee/debut fee.
No. Flippin. Way.
My reason would probably be Canova's reason (well, one of anyway): Baldy lacks instinct. I'm not talking about that last 400m BS. Bekele does it too, but you can tell he REALLY gets pumped off that special moment when he slits all throats early on.
If anyone's been paying attention to KB's XC and most recently that BUPA HM, it's that he ANNIHILATES the competition with some kind of ballsy move where it counts. Then just DARES anyone to cover it.
That's the difference. That's the marathon. And that's the way it is. You have to reach down and go to that bad place. Sitting and kicking isn't going to cut it now when they start throwing in 4:20 surges midway through and still pulling off 2:06-2:04s!
Duh...! wrote:
BobbyM wrote:No.
Farah is a fraud of a champion winning championships with a kick against 2nd tier competition. Bekele is the real deal.
2nd tier competition including Bekele(2012 Olympic 10k FOURTH PLACER)???
If Farah beat the 2nd tier that is Bekele, he can certainly beat that 2nd tier, substandard, sub-elite time.
Farah might have won against 2nd tier comp, but Bekele LOST to 2nd tier comp.
But in London Bekele was coming off a nagging injury...so by his standard he was in 2nd tier shape. The fact he was so close despite inconsistent training is amazing.
Absolutely yes ... No wait ... No ....
MAUI_krazy8 wrote:
If anyone's been paying attention to KB's XC and most recently that BUPA HM, it's that he ANNIHILATES the competition with some kind of ballsy move where it counts. Then just DARES anyone to cover it.
That's the difference. That's the marathon. And that's the way it is. You have to reach down and go to that bad place. Sitting and kicking isn't going to cut it now when they start throwing in 4:20 surges midway through and still pulling off 2:06-2:04s!
I think this is a great point. Mo might well have had the ability to make solo breakaways in races before but the fact he has never done it means he will have no confidence to draw on from previous experience. He will be dragged into new waters on Sunday and it will be very interesting to see how it pans out.
mark b wrote:
Mo will run faster than Bekele. At this stage in their careers Mo is simply the better runner. Bekele has lacked full motivation for a while now and I think it's too late to expect a sensational marathon from him - very good , yes , but not sensational.
I just witnessed a sensational marathon from him. Where is the bar for you? Does he have to set the WR?
Type A Douchebag wrote:
More importantly, will Mo FINISH the marathon? Does he have the nutrition aspects down and the discipline to know when to hold back when others surge
You really think Salazar wouldn't prepare him for the most basic things in the marathon?
DNF predictors: has Mo ever DNFed a race? I don't recall it.
Put me in the camp that thinks he'll run fast, but that a near-WR caliber 1500-runner is very unlikely to be faster than Bekele at the marathon right now.
My prediction is 2:04:45 and I want this to be quote of the day when it happens.
i predict mo will go 205 in the upcoming london marathon.
but bekele's 205 is really worth a 204 low and without the hamstring cramping, probably puts his current ability in the 203 high range.. or better!
so i'm saying bekele would take out moe right now if they were to race at the marathon distance.
No. Competition in Paris was really comfotable for Bekele. He ran alone a huge part of the distance but it was his comfort zone and guarantereed him finishing in a good performance. I think that in London other athletes like Wilson Kipsang will achieve their dreams and the pace will be too hard for Mo. I wish him knowing his performance and not to go too fast, he has no chance against top marathoners in his debut race.
If Mo is "sitting and kicking" then he'll be doing off the shoulder of someone running 2:04. Using that logic he'll be faster than Bekele.
Mo will likely trip over himself again, bleed out on the pavement, pick himself up, and soldier on like a true Pommy. He'll finish a bit behind the winners and then pass out cold. Later his "team" will describe this as "normal" and nothing to worry about.
1.02 half marathon and passing out? give me some Mo!!
1st of all Mo doesn't want to run a Marathon but is there because he signed a deal.
He doesn't want to run the Marathon because of his 1500k-10k results.
They choose this marathon as its just after the Olympics. so he has time to comeback in good 5-10k shape.
Maybe the marathon will destroy him and is this the end of Mo in the world top
1.02 + passing out ( 2.40 sec)+ 1.02 = 2.06.40
2.06.40 : 2.05.03 = ??? not faster then big balled Kenny
Paris is a faster course, it just has slower elite runners as the money is not there. The field is better for the sub-elite with many more sub-3's each year.
I think Mo will break Steve Jones British record (2:07:13) creating national records at 1,500m and Marathon within 12 months, quite an achievement.
As for the time, if he can lose himself in the race during the last 5-7km then yes KB's time is in reach but I think it is more than likely he will lose concentration and touch with the leaders and finish in 2:06:23.