Nutella1 wrote:
It would be crazy if Ritz broke Ryan Halls official PR 2:06:17.
I'm a fan of any American running well, so no disrespect to Hall ... but that would be AWESOME! Just think about the buzz that would create for the next few years
I think Ritz has the talent for it. I think he does a better job of putting it all together this time, but I think he'll still end up in the 2:07:50-2:08:10 range for 4th or 5th.
Nutella1 wrote:
It would be crazy if Ritz broke Ryan Halls official PR 2:06:17.
I'm a fan of any American running well, so no disrespect to Hall ... but that would be AWESOME! Just think about the buzz that would create for the next few years
I think Ritz has the talent for it. I think he does a better job of putting it all together this time, but I think he'll still end up in the 2:07:50-2:08:10 range for 4th or 5th.[/quote]
I think that's about right. Sub 2:07 would be a career day for Ritz in the marathon. 5-10% chance, but plainly no more.
Still, never say never. Maybe he'll get everything right this time. People occasionally do.
Ritz is the one who thinks 2:08 is ho-hum, I think 2:08:47 would be a great time for him.
If Ritz run runs faster than 2:08:47 he be the third fastest American ever
Wow! I had not checked the site for some time: What a result! Because I think he's still coming back from the injuries. I think he definitly could improve to sub 60.
If we use my equivalent times tables given different predispositions (on my website at
) we see the following possibilities for Ritz.
Given: 1:00:56 half marathon
Moderate Short Distance Predisposition: 2:08:00
Neutral Predisposition: 2:07:25
Moderate Long Distance Predisposition: 2:06:50
The neutral predisposition assumes a 4.5% slowing in pace (half vs full)
The moderate short distance predisposition assumes a 5.0% slowing in pace
The moderate long distance predisposition assumes a 4.0% slowing in pace
This also assumes that Ritz is equally as well prepared for the marathon as he was for the half marathon.
Since I don't train Ritz I can't make a judgement as to whether or not that is the case, but since his coach is very accomplished lets assume it is true.
Then his potentiall time will have alot to do with his natural physical and mental predispositions. Only Ritz and his coach are likely to know this completely accurately. But if we assume a neutral predisposition then I would estimate that under similar conditions (weather and course) he has the potential for a mid 2:07 performance in Chicago if his marathon prep is on par with his half marathon prep.
Mark,
Since you are doing this with a calculator and since we have a history of Alberto coached athletes previously running well for a half marathon (too close to their marathon), can you tell me what Kara should of run based on 68 low prior to Berlin or 69 flat prior to the tailwind Boston?
When doing this type of analysis there are three big factors involved: whether or not they are equally as well prepared for each race (their half marathon and marathon); if the course and weather conditions are the same or similar; and the the natural predispositions of the runner (physical make-up, personaility, etc).
So we would have to make some assumptions since I don't know all the courses, weather conditions and preparedness for all of the races in question.
But if we look at a 69:00 half marathon, under similar conditions and preparedness we get the following for the marathon, depending on predisposition:
Neutral Predisposition: 2:24:10
Moderate Long Distance Predisposition: 2:23:30
Moderate Short Distance Predisposition: 2:24:50
For a 68:15 half marathon
Neutral Predisposition: 2:22:40
Moderate Long Distance Predisposition: 2:22:00
Moderate Short Distance Predisposition: 2:23:20
I already have the math worked out and charts with these type times on them on my website:
on the Training Pace & Times page.
Caution: make sure you have taken into account all the variabes (preparedness, course, weather, predispositions) before trying to draw any conclusions. Also remember that not all race tactics will result in a maximumal time performance. But having said all of that, these charts serve as a very good guide to show you the possibilities given similar conditions and preparedness
Go dathan GO wrote:
http://arrs.net/AllTime/AL_Mara2.htmIf Ritz run runs faster than 2:08:47 he be the third fastest American ever
do you have a link for the USA top 1/2 marathon performances?
thanks
2:08:16
macmillian calc
No, if Ritz runs faster than 2:08:56 he'll take Abdi's spot and become the 3rd fastest American. (Kempainen's 2:08:47 was at Boston, which is not eligible for records).
he'll run 2:09:09
Does Ritz take thyroid medication like Mo and Galen and both Gouchers?