S&P Sell Signal

Opposite George wrote:

So the timing of this signal was right?

Why are you belaboring a stupid and incorrect point? There is no system or trade the anyone claims can call an exact high or low. I have no idea how accurate the OP's system is, but people bashing any signal by saying it isn't batting 100% are just wrong and are probably making less money because they can't handle the fact you might strike out occassionally.

What you're saying is akin to saying a professional sports handicapper in the world's system is wrong if they only pick 55% of the games right or that a professional card counter's system is wrong because their advantage is only 1.5%.

Any system for making money in anything is about risk management and getting more hits than strikeouts. Unless you can see the future, that's the best anyone can do.

bump

I understand he cannot call an exact high or an exact low.

But he called nearly the exact lowest point of the year as a time to sell.

The Dow closed at 10,817.65 on the last trading day before his sell signal.

It has closed above that number every single day since and was lower for only 2 seperate days prior during the entire year.

Meanwhile, the high was a whole 2000 points higher.

That is opposite of optimal.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

BTW, try coming up with a list of LRC posters who have ever admitted they're wrong. It'll be a very short list.

I admitted on the Beard Question thread that I was wrong. And that I am a wus. However, since I can grow a pretty awesome beard, nothing else really matters.

i think therefore i am wrote:

Coach d,

Are you selling the S&P? looks like the 19&39 ema just crossed over? (I had to approximate with the 95 & 195 day ema, so I might be off a bit).

coach d shorting now?

Opposite George wrote:

I understand he cannot call an exact high or an exact low.

But he called nearly the exact lowest point of the year as a time to sell.

Since you are so convinced I'm wrong, I hope you took the opportunity to buy that day.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

BTW, try coming up with a list of LRC posters who have ever admitted they're wrong. It'll be a very short list.

Well I once thought I was wrong but in the end it turned out I was wrong about being wrong.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

Since you are so convinced I'm wrong, I hope you took the opportunity to buy that day.

I was already all in. But that's besides the point. I didn't start a thread about the direction of the market.

I am convinced that if you had money in stocks and sold on almost any other day than the next available day that you posted, you would have been better off for it.

If you sold two weeks earlier, you would have been better.

Two weeks later, you would have been better.

Two months earlier. Three months. Four months. Five months...

Now the markets may close today below your sell point.

It may dive below 10,000 in the next month.

But you still missed the top by 2000 points.

And there was nothing special about the day you received your sell signal. Not thread worthy anyway.

Ah, I see. I didn't sell at the top. Obviously I'm a moron for not accurately predicting the future. Did you get all in on March 9, 2009?

The top?

The top?

You were so far from the top that you would need binoculars to see the top.

You're holding hands with the bottom.

It would be like picking the Carolina Panthers to win the Super Bowl last year (they were 2-14).

What did Bob Ueker say in Major Leage when Vaughn threw that pitch to the back stop "Juuust a bit outside!"

Raplh Nader just missed getting elected President.

Didn't sell at the top?

The 2011 high was right about 12,900

The 2011 low was right about 10,700

You sold at 10,800

Missed the top.

Missed it by that much.

Opposite George wrote:

The top?

So you are saying this is the bottom?

Opposite George wrote:

Now the markets may close today below your sell point.

It may dive below 10,000 in the next month.

But you still missed the top by 2000 points.

And there was nothing special about the day you received your sell signal. Not thread worthy anyway.

He may have missed the top by 2000 points, but he'll be better off than you. That's the point - it doesn't have to be perfect at all, but if it beats buy and hold it makes financial sense for him.

You clearly feel threatened by somebody not following the buy & hold method you've been taught.

Historically, nothing beats buy and hold.

Bruce McNall wrote:

Historically, nothing beats buy and hold.

incorrect

Momentum outperforms the US market by 3%/yr. In the case of the FTSE, 8%.

Do you know who I am?

Bruce McNall wrote:

Do you know who I am?

Somebody who thinks they're someone special?

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

I can think of 2 times I admitted I was wrong on LRC.

.

It's quite telling that with all of the years you've been on here, with all the opinions you've stated, and all the debates you've been in, that you think that admitting twice to being "wrong" is an accomplishment of some sort. This just proves the other guy's point.

(and the irony is: when you were wrong before, I doubt you actually stated it that way, in a definite manner. But now, when it suits you towards winning a different argument, you are happy to declare that you've admitted to being wrong in the past. In other words: you are only admitting to being wrong in the past because it helps you construct an argument that you are right right now)

Bruce McNall wrote:

Historically, nothing beats buy and hold.

Which mutual fund company taught you that piece of wisdom?

always a bull mkt somewhere wrote:

Which mutual fund company taught you that piece of wisdom?

Vanguard.

"Over the next decade, Mr. Bogle said stocks are likely to generate an average annual return, including dividends, of around 7%. "Your money will double in 10 years," he said. "How bad is that? People ought to get over the illusion [of higher expectations] and realize that they may have to invest for longer time periods, start earlier and save more."