Ryan Hall picks London

The kid has the ability to run with these guys not only til half but to the final meters and has the abiltiy to win London without question.

59:43 for 1/2. Old equation for Prediciting a Marathon was double your current half form and add 3 mins. Hall has the abilty to run 2:04 to 2:05. Forget Alberto Salzar, Meb, Ritz, Culpepper, etc. etc. these guys don't come close to Ryan's ability in the 1/2. Ryan Hall should be out in 1:02:45 in London. He did a Time Trial in Houston. He is running well enough to win London!. He should take the bull by the horms and keep the pace at 4:42 to 4:45 a mile. This will elminate the Kenyans jerking the pace around from 4:40 to 5:00 pace and keep the minds working. Ryans a great rythmn runner and the best way to avoid interuption is to keep things steady and fast. F*** reputations! If I was coaching him I'd be telling him Half in 4:45's and keep hitting them til the well is dry.

jungleroy59 wrote:

I suppose you are right. In fact, if he's at 2:06 with 400 meters to go, he should stop and stretch for 5 minutes, just to make sure a fast debut doesn't spoil his career.

He won't be at 2:06 with 400 to go. I will surprised if he cracks 2:10:00.

I do believe, however, that he has the talent to run in the time range you specify. If I had my druthers, and I don't, I would rather see him go to a smaller marathon with the intention of running a 2:10-2:12, relieving himself of the unnecessary fastest "debut" crap, and then go to a London (or similar) and bust one out.

Europecallingagain wrote:

I don't think it's the wrong decision, he's gonna crack if he goes out with Gebre and friends at 2:04 pace but if he stays with guys like Baldini, 63:30-64min at the half, he is gonna make a decent debut.

Let's say he's in 59:40 shape on race day, he's not gonna burn much glycogen running 2:08 pace, if he is not doing any stupid acceleration too early(like Ritz did in NY), i believe he's gonna finish atleast in sub 2:10 and with good preparation sub 2:08.

The key in Marathoning is to keep your ego in check, if Hall can manage that...sky's the limit.

I like your reasoning. Good post.

Anyone know what Hall is getting for appearance fee?

Shane Lavell wrote:

The kid has the ability to run with these guys not only til half but to the final meters and has the abiltiy to win London without question.

59:43 for 1/2. Old equation for Prediciting a Marathon was double your current half form and add 3 mins. Hall has the abilty to run 2:04 to 2:05..

Yeah, LOTS of people win a marathon of that quality in their debut, when the year before they were 5k runners. Suuuure.... Hall is gonna do what NO ONE IN HISTORY has done in the marathon before (what you are describing). Let's see, Tergat was a 59 minute 1/2 marathoner and he debuted what......2:08/2:09 ?? Took him several times to get to his current WR. And Geb, pretty much the greatest of all time, has run UNDER 59 for the 1/2, and he has run a bunch of 2:06's and even run as slow as 2:09 (was it 2:09?) . But Hall, RYAN HALL, is gonna do better than those guys. HE is gonna debut in 2:04/5, maybe set a WR in his first try, and trounce the greatest marathon field ever....in his first try.

OK sure, whatever you say champ! At least Skuj believes it's possible!

Haha! Thanks Sir Lancelot!

I couldn't agree more with Shane.

OK, how about this, Sir Lancelot: Under no circumstances will Hall do a 2:05/2:06. There's absolutely no way in hell. It's impossible. Stop being dreamers. It definitely won't happen.

Does that make you happy, Sir Lancelot? :)

I think, debut and all, ANYTHING can happen, but likely, we'll see 2:08 ish. However, if he wins it in 2:05, I for one will not be asking for a course remeasurement.

Sir Lancelot, what was some of the great debuts? I'm recalling some 2:05/2:06s. Now we shouldn't all expect a win in 2:05 from Hall....but is it POSSIBLE?

SURE IT IS!!! (I know you like CAPITALS!) :)

Hall is gonna do what NO ONE IN HISTORY has done in the marathon before...

Is Sell running London?

And didn't Khannouchi debut at just over 2:07? And maybe I'm mistaken here, but I thought that Jones debutted with a 2:08 and change. Wasn't it a world record? Not saying that Hall will do a 2:07, let alone a world record. But why try to go and run 2:12, which is his half plus 6:20. Hell, If I ran my half time plus 6:20 for my marathon half splits, I'd call that a really bad day. And that's on 70-80 a week.

1997 Khannouchi debut 2:07:10 Chicago

1983 Steve Jones debut Chicago dnf

1984 Steve Jones Chicago 2:08:05 WR

1985 Steve Jones Chicago 2:07:13 (just missed the WR)

Yeah, no big boys in London this year. Robert Cherioyt is 28 this year and has been running marathons since 2002. He was 23 when he started. OMG! Felix Limo is 26 and has been running marathons since 2003. So he 23 was when he started. Thought marathons were for 35 year old "slow" pokes These two guys are at the top of the Marathon scene and they didn't get there overnight. And yeah a 13:10 5k is going to get you a lot of attention in the US. Not even 12:58 does. Williams tried to go marathon on his way out on the track and it didn't work out.Sandstorm option, do you have a poster of Pre right next to your Jergens and tissues?

sandstorm option wrote:

Disappointed Fan... wrote:

Huge management error.

Yep. He needs to run a few good years worth of fast races on the track. That's where the big boys are. The marathon is for guys on their way out on the track - usually.

London's a great race and a fast course. Ryan should be good for 2:07:15-2:08:00 if he clips through half way in around 64mins. Assuming he's done his homework![quote]londinium wrote:

Hi Jo,

Before I start first let me congratulate you on that great 2:27 in the NYCM. I did my 'maiden flight' in London in April 2006 as a veteran (master). It was humbling. Despite being 40 and with 30 years of experience in competition I went out too fast. At 20 I was running on an empty tank. I came home in 2:29:56 after collapsing onto the floor infront of the BBC cameras just outside Buckingham Palace. So when I saw you clock 2:27 I was impressed. VERY!

London's a marvellous course with a NYC crowd to match. And in 3 months I'll be back gunning for 2:25 (which is roughly what your NYC performance is worth in London).

IF Ryan is prepared for the distance then I see him clocking well under 2:08. But it's a big 'if'. Personally I think he's too young. But I hope I'm wrong. He should stick to track 10K and shorter raoad races for another 4 years then move up.

Paul

TOO EARLY! Opt out for a fall marathon and use the legs to win that World title in XC. Not a wise decision

Paul -- thanks for the kind words and sorry you hit the bricks ... on camera (ouch)... at Flora London. Soulnds almost exactly like my first marathon.

As for Ryan, well, you know it is impossible to accurately prepare a first-timer for how quickly and severely one can crater in a marathon...you just have to find out. Comments aboyu themhalf indicate he was awell ahead of goal pace early on but felt good so he just kept it; that is udually on would be crazy in a marathon. You end up just as dead whether you are bitten to death by ants or by sharks. This is where coaches come in...

I don't think Ryan would win the World Cross but it would help him learn the ropes just as Paul and Haile did....

I was watching Ryan Hall in Houston and he did a fantastic half marathon. No question he has the potential to be a great marathoner, but I think we should do Ryan Hall a favor of not comparing him to Geb or Tergat just yet. Geb and Tergat has many more years of high level training and have also ran a few marathons. Note that Geb has still not fully adapted to marathon, even though I think this year he will break the WR. I hope Ryan Hall is smart and use the London Marathon to gain experience in the marathon, and to sit back with a positive feeling after the race. That means he should start first half in no faster than 1:05, then run the second half a bit faster with a strong finish, coming in 2:09+. The worst thing that can happen is that he follows the more experienced marathoners to 1:02-1:03, and really hit the wall on the last half. That will damage he's confidence for the marathon and also some of the other races for a while.

...in my opinion

Run_faster wrote:

I hope Ryan Hall is smart and use the London Marathon to gain experience in the marathon, and to sit back with a positive feeling after the race. That means he should start first half in no faster than 1:05, then run the second half a bit faster with a strong finish, coming in 2:09+. The worst thing that can happen is that he follows the more experienced marathoners to 1:02-1:03, and really hit the wall on the last half. That will damage he's confidence for the marathon and also some of the other races for a while.

...in my opinion

I disagree. The best way to gain experience is to go for your best race. If Hall thinks he needs to run evenly or negative-split for the best chance to run fast, then he should do it. But if he doesn't go for his best race, but instead purposely tries for only a safe, decent one, then it'd limit what he can learn for championship competition later.

Ritz rigged at the end of his 26.2 and yes his confidence seemed shaken afterwards. But if he just ran 2:14 pace the whole way, he might not have learned that more work was needed to run sub-2:10. The approach you speak of would basically rob Hall of any chance at a 2:07-08, which maybe he can do.

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According to the Ray Flynn interview in RW online last week he is planning on running with the leaders. Ray Flynn sounds very naive to the way that the marathon is run. He sounds like a middle distance guy that thinks the marathon is just a longer race.