Why can't Ritz run sub 13?

LOST wrote:

1. First off, you only started saying that when some initital posters wrote that sub13 would be possible if he didn't focus on the marathon. You went back and qualifed your statement further. Inititally you were saying that regardless of marathon he could break it. Pick a point and stick with it.

Wrong. Ever since I started saying he would break 13:00 (a couple years+ now) I said only if he didn't move to the marathon early and then just focus on that.

Um, yeah, I can't really respond because I could not get all the way through your post.

I can see once again that some of you are not capable of making points without getting mad and doing the name calling thing. "That other guy said something that I disagree with, so I'm going to call him a name!"

Well, my goals were reached in this thread (except for the part where no one would slam anyone -- I couldn't care less if you all slam me, but that doesn't provide any insight at all).

SOME good points were made by others who hold a different opinion than mine, but not all were good points. I will summarize the reasons that were give why Ritzenhein can't break 13:00:

1) Ian Dobson has a faster 5,000 than he does.

2) Alan Webb beat Ritz in a 10,000.

3) Even though Kennedy's mile PR was just 3:56 (about the level Ritz could throw down now), he likely could have run it in 2:19 if he ran it when he was in peak shape, and angels would have sung and he would have levitated above us all (and all of us would be hoping he would bless us rather than smite us).

4) Ritz is "dirt slow".

Ok. Thanks.

P.S. Don't get your panties in a bunch over #3. It's just a joke for crying out loud.

? wrote:

Um, yeah, I can't really respond because I could not get all the way through your post.

Start with Dick and Jane books and work your way up.

5) Sub-13 is much, much harder than you realize and it's exceedingly rare for a white man to do it without all the stars lining up for several years.

FW, arguing with you is impossible because you selectively ignore any point that has you stumped or beaten. And in that list you just compiled you take the weakest points made by people (and some you massaged yourself) and present them as if these are the best arguments out there. Go back and read my post. Particularly the last paragraph. I am sorry if you can't debate it, or maybe this is just your way of accepting that you are wrong.

Finally, look at my last post and cut and paste where exactly I called you a name FW? Seriously. Do it right now. This I want to see. Again you make stuff up. Amazing.

And guess what, you still haven't come up with a definition of "talent" but I guess this doesn't surprise me coming from a guy who distorts his own argument. So FW, some basics about debate, or journalism or simple discussion - come in with a point that has been fleshed out first.

LOST wrote:

FW, arguing with you is impossible because you selectively ignore any point that has you stumped or beaten. And in that list you just compiled you take the weakest points made by people (and some you massaged yourself) and present them as if these are the best arguments out there. Go back and read my post. Particularly the last paragraph. I am sorry if you can't debate it, or maybe this is just your way of accepting that you are wrong.

Ok. Just to appease you, your last paragraph says this, "As for me. DO I believe Ritz has a shot at sub13? Sure."

Ok then, you and I are in agreement.

LOST wrote:

Finally, look at my last post and cut and paste where exactly I called you a name FW? Seriously. Do it right now. This I want to see. Again you make stuff up. Amazing.

I never said that you did.

But that's not the point, you're saying it is a certainty AND he is clearly the only with a ton of talent AND it would be rare for other US 5000m contemporaries to do the same. I do not agree with all three statements. My point is:

1. It is possible, but not CERTAIN. As you make it out to be. This is the third time I have had to say this pointblank. Stop taking my sentences out of context and learn how to read.

2. I believe, as do many on this thread, that he has talent, but so do many other guys now. You say he is the most talented runner and far away more talented than 99% of other US runners now and in the past. I, as well as many others, take issue with you saying he is far and away more talented and others are not. This is just ridiculous to me. It's especially ridiculous when you make that comparitive statement and STILL cannot come up with a definition of talent.

3. I really believe if he goes under 13, he won't be the only other American who does, there are a bunch of others with the capability.

So no, we are not in agreement.

I don't think Ritz can run sub-13. Like Marius said it's hard to improve from the 13.10-level.

Take Marius as an example. He ran 13.22 after deciding to become a longdistancerunner, after 5-6 months of 180km and 4-6 LT-runs, 21 years old. Then a year later 13.11..then...13.09...13.06....13.07.

Only guys like Mottram, Webb and Baumann can take huge jumps from 13.10 to 12.50 because they got 48 speed for the 400m and can run a super-fast mile. How can a guy like Ritz compete with them?.....they all got pretty similar endurance. 51-52 speed isn't enough here...will end up with 13.08

Ok then.

FW...I understand your "arguements" against Dobson and Hall reaching the same level as Ritz. What about Broe...Broe has run times in the 5000 meters similar to Ritz and run times faster than Ritz in shorter distances with LIMITED training. Obviously the problem with Broe (and likewise with Ritz) is staying healthy...if he does, I don't understand your arguement that he's less "talented" than Ritz and less likely to run sub 1300. I understand that he is older, but he shouldn't have peaked yet. In addition, I don't understand the arguement that Teg racing too infrequently is a negative at this point in his career. He just beat Ritz head to head while not racing sharp. He's almost as young as Ritz, so again, I don't understand how he's less likely to continue to improve and challenge Ritz. Please don't say that Ritz is more talented than Broe and Teg...I already know that you believe this.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

3) Even though Kennedy's mile PR was just 3:56 (about the level Ritz could throw down now

He might want to try breaking 4 first.

Ritz seems to understand that he'll never be competitive on the world scene in the 5000 and so is moving up to the marathon. There's nothing wrong with that -everyone focuses on the event they're best at.

Yes, I do believe Ritz is more talented than both (Broe is better at 3,000 meters though, but overall Ritz is more talented). However, Broe and Teg are the closest to Ritz than any of the other also rans that have been mentioned, and while I've closed the book on Broe, Teg surprised big time with that 13:15 of his, and since he likely wasn't as sharp as he could be, he just might do better than I think. If I had to bet though, I'd say Ritz will end up being more accomplished than Tegenkamp.

killsee wrote:

...Like Marius said it's hard to improve from the 13.10-level.

Take Marius as an example. He ran 13.22 after deciding to become a longdistancerunner, after 5-6 months of 180km and 4-6 LT-runs, 21 years old. Then a year later 13.11..then...13.09...13.06....13.07.

Who is Marius?

dunno

Thanks for the wonderful list. And just for the sake of completeness, you need to add Ritz's 27:45.xx at Hengelo.

Seriously Willy, Marius has it right on. There is a huge difference between 13:10 and 13:00, and he should know a helluva lot better than you or I. Kennedy WAS capable of running much faster than 3:38 in the 1500 when he broke 13:00. Ritz does indeed possess a ton of natural strength, which is why he is probably better suited to the 10k on up and has a legitimate chance at the AR in the 10k.

He may have the ability to break 13:00 if he reaches his FULL potential, but he has yet to give any indication that he's capable of it. He has not run a top flight 3000 and doesn't seem able to keep up with the likes of Webb, Goucher, etc. over this distance. Yes, he did run 13:27 as a freshman, but he was also putting in a lot of quality miles, more than most. I am rooting for Ritz, but the guys that break 13 are generally the ones that possess superior (not merely better than average) footspeed ~ 3:30-3:33 in the 1500.