Like I said, Habz was dragged to that time in Oslo, it’s not comparable at all. Rome is the better performance and even it doesn’t explain his 3:27.49 with only 1k of pacing. How did he run faster than all 3 Paris medalists with far less help in spite of being an obviously inferior athlete? Cutting 8 meters doesn’t take you from B tier to one of the fastest ever.
Why should I believe Kerr has plenty of room to improve on his 3:27.79? It’s an enormous outlier on his service record. He had a chance at a fast 1500 last year and ran 3:29.3 for 2nd. Not convincing.
None of those guys were in the race and none would peak for it like Habz did. Will you change your tune if Hocker runs 3:26 at some point? I think your skepticism is warranted, but I do believe in Josh’s peaking/focus and I think last years London was a totally different scenario.
They peaked for Paris and ran slower than Habz even though they were paced way longer. That’s the point you aren’t getting. At the tender age of 31, a guy with zero pedigree suddenly drops a 3:27 looking like prime Jakob and I’m supposed to believe it? I’ll change my tune when it becomes commonplace for B tier athletes to run historically great times.
The race of Kerr’s life is worth 3:44 and he only has one other performance (Bowerman mile 2024) on a similar level. I brought up London because he called his shot last year and came up well short. There’s nothing you can point to in his career that makes 3:42 look remotely plausible.
I agree, I think he is trying to boost his mental confidence.
I think its crazy he talked a lot about the gear he is going to use, makes it sound like he is relying a lot on it. Which makes the world record more impressive. I predict someone else in the race will get it.
i think he's just a really focused spokesperson for the brand. i wouldn't read into it any more than that.
I've listened to a few of Josh Kerr's interviews over the past week, and here are my observations (not criticisms, although synical):
- Kerr himself doesn't really know if he can break the WR. In theory yes, but in practice he doesn't know. That unknown element is part of the excitement Kerr has engineered and why we are all here discussing it.
- And it doesn't really matter to Kerr, because Project 222 is first and foremost a marketing and money generating exercise. He speaks about having to present his pitch at the Brooks coporate office in Seattle - they are interested in return on investment, whether he runs the WR or not. GST was Kerr's cash cow last year, but since that has fallen through it is now Project 222 - a complete reversal in philosophy (racing vs time trialing) to increase earnings in 2026. Do you think Jakob has ever pitched a WR attempt to Nike?
- References to other gear and products is another marketing and money making opportunity for his sponsors via his YouTube series that will follow his training in the lead up to the race.
- Kerr is the first to announce this attempt; he got in before Hocker and therefore owns the hype and WR attempt, not his competitors. He has also announced this hot off his 3000m win over Hocker at World Indoors - a deliberate move while Kerr stocks are high. For context, Kerr understands he is now in the later part of his career and his stocks won't be high forever - he is a realist in this regard.
- Kerr is not afraid that this is an open Diamond League race, because there is no appearance fee money left for anyone else, like Hocker or Jakob. Kerr has negotiated a big fee to sell out the London stadium. Other Nike athletes might be tied up with Pre Classic, and you might get a few more Brits. It sounds like some work has gone into reducing the field size with the meet organiser off the back of previous London meets where falls have occured. Good luck getting into this race, says Kerr.
- On top of this, it sounds like some decent cash has gone towards securing gun pacers, which he has apparently locked in, but yet to announce in case they drop out due to injury etc.
- He has also stated that he doesn't care if it is raining or windy on the day, he will race to conditions. Which is further proof that by the time the gun goes off, the hard work making money has been done and the race itself is just a side show to the whole marketing exercise.
- It will further raise his profile and marketing potential going into a British Comm Games, while peaking athletically at the same time.
- Kerr will try his best, no doubt - he has skin in the game. However, it really is a win-win scenario for him, because if he falls short, people will just say "Oh well, that's just sport for ya", and he will still walk away with a PB or even European record if he is lucky (plus the money)...
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.