Will they have pacers? Even if they do, at some point there are a few guys who will hook on to the "Ritz Train". Fam, Lane, and Asmeron can all run solidly and hang for a while. But realistically, Webb and Craigg could let Ritz pace a 27:25-27:35 and if all 3 are together with 800 to go, the odds don't favor Ritz.
Anthony Famiglietti is in the race...is he pacing?
stipe wrote:
Will they have pacers? Even if they do, at some point there are a few guys who will hook on to the "Ritz Train". Fam, Lane, and Asmeron can all run solidly and hang for a while. But realistically, Webb and Craigg could let Ritz pace a 27:25-27:35 and if all 3 are together with 800 to go, the odds don't favor Ritz.
This is what is irritating about it. Webb and Craig should take it out hard, and, with fair competition, Ritz would likely run a very fast time. But odds are that they will let him do most of the work.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
Flagpole Willy wrote:Ritz will beat Webb (or at least he should).......
HA HA HA......Webb even has Flagpole Willy scared for his boy D-Ritz!!! Now THAT has got to tell you something about Alan Webb's ability, when even Flagpole (the man who thinks Ritz walks on water) has some doubts about Ritz beating Webb AT A TEN K !!!
My how things have changed. Flagpole, last year you were on here guaranteeing that Ritz would whip Webb in a TWO MILE......and now you are not 100% sure Ritz can beat Webb at over three times that distance! Funny, funny stuff.
All I know is: if Webb beats Ritz at 10k, then you, Mr Flagpole Willy, will have to forever cease and desist in saying that these two young men are "equally talented." You will just have to stop that, ok? Because that would mean that Webb could beat Ritz at EVERY SINGLE DISTANCE ON THE TRACK.
(Flagpole Willy is gonna be having a nervous couple days to say the least....)
Sir Lance-alot,
Brother, my comment here about Ritz just shows I am able to learn (which so many of you say is not possible). Let me point some things out to you:
1) Prior to that 2-mile, I did believe Ritz would beat Webb, but Webb proved to be stronger than I thought he was, THUS RAISING UP IN MY BOOK; this did nothing to diminish Ritz. He's proven even further how strong he is with that 13:10. While I still think Ritz will beat Webb at 10,000, Webb has proven to be world class all the way up to 5,000 (if just barely), so who knows how far his range goes up? I think just as highly of Webb as I do Ritz, just in different events, but I haven't had to hold him up because he's already achieved a serious level in his best events that Ritz has not yet.
2) To be clear, my doubting Ritz's talent will never wane. I believe him to be as talented at 10,000 as Webb is at 1500. I still have great confidence in his ability too (talent and ability being different things). Over 10,000 meters, I believe Ritz to have greater talent than Webb. At one mile and even two miles, Webb has greater talent. They may be equal at 5,000 (Webb's faster PR there, doesn't yet prove anything as I'm certain Ritz can run sub 13:00, so 13:10 should be easy).
3) Ritz is not "my boy". Like I said, I think he can run 27:18 at Stanford if the weather is right and he doesn't hold back. I do not think Webb is capable of that time -- not now, and likely not ever. If Ritz has a very bad day and runs slower than 27:50, Webb could beat him. If so, big deal. Doesn't say anything about Ritz in the long run -- it's only one race.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
Coach Bigfoot wrote:I've heard of track 20Ks, I'm positive Ritz would beat him there. We all know Ritz is a stronger cross runner anyways.
Oh, give me a break. 20k on the track?? How often is THAT raced? Like hardly ever. I mean sure, people run ultra-marathons on tracks. Obviously I was talking about TRADITIONAL track races. Stop making pre-excuses for Ritz (loweing expectations for him). And if Ritz's race is cross, then why did he not fair so well in his last two BIG cross races (world cross '05, USA nationals '06) ?
If Ritz can't handle Webb at 10k, we learn one of two things, or a combination of both:
1) Ritz is NOT the track runner some still conceive of him someday becoming, and he should really hasten his move to the roads/marathon where maybe he CAN be the superstar some believe him to be.
2) Webb is indeed the once in a lifetime track runner the USA has been longing for, and many believe him to be, and will be under 3:47 mile and 13:00 5k in no time.
You're not seriously saying this based on this one race are you? Still early in the season, still only Ritz's SECOND REAL attempt at 10,000 on a track, still Ritz isn't 100% following injuries and illness, and he's still a very young guy! One race does not say anything about someone's career, unless of course that race is a World Record or an Olympic medal, and even there, neither of those things are EVERYTHING.
Best case -- 27:18 for Ritz
Worst case (assuming no DNF or injury) 27:35
Best case for Webb - 27:50
Flagpole Willy wrote:
They may be equal at 5,000 (Webb's faster PR there, doesn't yet prove anything as I'm certain Ritz can run sub 13:00, so 13:10 should be easy).
Come on, that's ludicrous. You're sure ritz can run sub 13? what in the last couple of years has made you think that? his pr is 13:22 and that's a long f-in way from 13:10, much less 13 flat. there's not a chance in hell ritz could break 13 when he's sporting a pr of 3:43 at 1500.
right now webb's pr does prove something. it proves that he's much faster than ritz over 5k. and it proves that he's a strong mf-er. if ritz is in AR shape, which i don't think he is, then webb won't beat him, otherwise, webb will win.
Webb 27:06 AR
You heard it here first.
I saw Webb doing a set of 12 1000m repeats w/60 sec float, and he was hitting sub 2:40 on all of them, looking really comfortable
Ritz goes 28:03
I'm picking Cragg.
27:27, NR.
I think you're probably right. Do you know if Spivey ever ran a competitive 10k? I'd be curious to know his time even if it doesn't come close to 28.
webb wins wrote:
Webb 27:06 AR
You heard it here first.
I saw Webb doing a set of 12 1000m repeats w/60 sec float, and he was hitting sub 2:40 on all of them, looking really comfortable
Ritz goes 28:03
If this is no bs, he is really in shape for a new AR.
The missing player here is Ryan Hall. I think that on a good day he can take them all down, and is not one to let things lag. This is a race that will be won in about 27:30-ish, a fitness level which Hall has shown more consistently than the other three in the last 9 months.
mr.superexpert wrote:
webb wins wrote:Webb 27:06 AR
You heard it here first.
I saw Webb doing a set of 12 1000m repeats w/60 sec float, and he was hitting sub 2:40 on all of them, looking really comfortable
Ritz goes 28:03
If this is no bs, he is really in shape for a new AR.
I have not seen that workout, but one very similar. He is in excellent shape, but is realistic about the race. He and his coach are hoping for a 27:45. At least, that's what a little birdy told me.
No, not a Hall fan wrote:
The missing player here is Ryan Hall. I think that on a good day he can take them all down, and is not one to let things lag. This is a race that will be won in about 27:30-ish, a fitness level which Hall has shown more consistently than the other three in the last 9 months.
I'm not a big Hall fan either, but I think potentially Hall is better than Ritz over the 10k, and I believe he will be a sub 13 5k runner - which Ritz will never be. At this time of the year, I doubt any of the major players are going to hit a PR with the exception of Webb who never reallys runs the 10k.
When in gods name is Teg going to debut at 10k? I know you can crack a good one Matt.
heat sheets are up on the stanford site both ritz and webb listed.
Webb will shit on Ritz's face
Then he will win the race.
27:15
how in the world is Webb going to run that time without a quality pacer?? Webb, with all the talent in the world, has had endless problems with pace if he has to go it alone, or if pace starts and stops.
Ritz has been shown to be a MASTER at the strategic surge. He will out race Webb and no one will get close to the AR.
Ritz at 27:25, Webb 27:55, Cragg 28:05, others low 28.
ruppy wrote:
how in the world is Webb going to run that time without a quality pacer?? Webb, with all the talent in the world, has had endless problems with pace if he has to go it alone, or if pace starts and stops.
Ritz has been shown to be a MASTER at the strategic surge. He will out race Webb and no one will get close to the AR.
Ritz at 27:25, Webb 27:55, Cragg 28:05, others low 28.
I'm not sure you can call Ritz a "MASTER" of anything at this point. So Ritz will win by 30 seconds? That's almost 200 yards. I highly doubt he is going to do that, if he wins it won't be by more than 5-10 seconds. A gap like that is very rare in 10ks on the track, especially if they are fast.
bmc pool strikes back wrote:
Flagpole Willy wrote:They may be equal at 5,000 (Webb's faster PR there, doesn't yet prove anything as I'm certain Ritz can run sub 13:00, so 13:10 should be easy).
Come on, that's ludicrous. You're sure ritz can run sub 13? what in the last couple of years has made you think that? his pr is 13:22 and that's a long f-in way from 13:10, much less 13 flat. there's not a chance in hell ritz could break 13 when he's sporting a pr of 3:43 at 1500.
1) People would have said the same thing about Kennedy when looking at HIS 1500 FRESHMAN YEAR OF COLLEGE PR too! Dude, Ritz ran that 1500 time years ago now. He's a much better runner (and no, his 13:22 PR from last year is not indicative of his current ability; and don't be smart and say no, he's only capable of 13:25 -- he's WAY better RIGHT NOW than that time indicates).
2) Ritz will definitely run sub 13:00 for 5k.
3) Just as ROJO said in that column of his a while ago now, I'm putting this all out there so that when Ritz does do it, I can say "I told you so", and none of you will be able to. No disrespect intended to Wejo, but if Wejo can run 28:06, then Ritz, with all his talent, drive (although the talent is the MAIN thing here) and financial support, then Ritz can be a minute+ faster than that easily.
webb wins wrote:
Webb 27:06 AR
You heard it here first.
I saw Webb doing a set of 12 1000m repeats w/60 sec float, and he was hitting sub 2:40 on all of them, looking really comfortable
Ritz goes 28:03
Are you shitting me?
Please don't be shitting me!!!!!