You must be a USA hater with your unrealistic expectations and terrible takes. You get on Hoppel’s case for running 1.65 seconds slower than his best but not on Wanyonyi’s for running 2.12 seconds slower? Who “fell off” more?
Wanyonyi, unlike, hopper has in 2024 consistently ran ~1:41 in both the high altitude of Kenya and various DL events in Europe before, during and after the Olympic Games. Hopper only managed to do so once, during the OG and immediately regressed to the (his) norm of ~1:43. You mentioned that he was closer to Wanyonyi most recently and this is because Wanyonyi had to ran, as you mentioned, ~2:12 seconds slower for him, hopped, to be closer. You were trying to put a positive spin on his recent performance 🎭 in Poland which I simply called out.
Your calling out of my "positive spin" is ignoring the bigger picture point I made about Hoppel's consistent placings his last few races. Did he really fall off if his last three race finishes were fourth, fourth, and third with several of the same competitors in each race?
As for Hoppel's times this season, any fair assessment would take into account two things: 1) he front ran a 1:42 at the US Olympic Trials. That alone should tell you he could have gone faster with people running ahead of him. 2) He withdrew at the last minute from the Monaco meet where six guys ran 1:42 or faster. Had he been in that race as planned, it's very likely he would have run 1:42 low (Ben Pattison, whom Hoppel defeated at the Stockholm Diamond League meet earlier this year, ran 1:42.27). With those two things in mind, his 1:41 at the Olympics doesn't seem like such a crazy outlier.
The other thing I'll point out is it's normal for an athlete's 800 times to vary by a second or two from their best within a season. Three weeks after David Rudisha ran his 1:40.91 world record at the 2012 Olympics, he ran 1:42.81 and was beaten at the Zurich Diamond League meet. Three weeks after Wilson Kipketer ran 1:41.11, he ran 1:42.98. According to his World Athletics profile, Sebastian Coe's 1:41.73 was the only time he broke 1:42 and one of only two times that he ran under 1:43 in his entire career. Such variation is not only normal, it's understandable. We're talking about humans running in various conditions, not robots in a controlled setting.
the kenyan trials aren’t the end all be all. if wanyonyi gets 8th place at the kenyan trials he still gets chosen for the team. if hoppel gets 4th at the US trials he’s SOL. they need to both manage two peaks and now were expecting them to be able to perform after that. it’s an unfair expectation
I didn't say the Kenyan trials are "the be all and the end all". But the standard of competition will be no less than the US Olympic trials.
But the excuses here are risible. Americans have had trials for decades of Olympics. In these Games they achieve their best overall performance and then fall off a cliff promptly after - unlike previous eras. There's only one credible reason for that.
"Unlike previous eras". The U.S. had few notable distance runners (defined by Olympic and WC medals) from ~1984 to ~2016. So, there are no meaningful data points from these "previous eras" from which to observe / not observe a fall off.
There's also the emotional high of winning a medal at the olympics. A lot of the Americans mentioned did better than expected at the olympics. Running a fast time at some diamond league doesn't mean much after that. But runners who did not perform as well as they wanted at the Olympics are probably fired up to get another opportunity to show what they can do.
I didn't say the Kenyan trials are "the be all and the end all". But the standard of competition will be no less than the US Olympic trials.
But the excuses here are risible. Americans have had trials for decades of Olympics. In these Games they achieve their best overall performance and then fall off a cliff promptly after - unlike previous eras. There's only one credible reason for that.
"Unlike previous eras". The U.S. had few notable distance runners (defined by Olympic and WC medals) from ~1984 to ~2016. So, there are no meaningful data points from these "previous eras" from which to observe / not observe a fall off.
That is ironic. The US had few distance runners in previous eras who were any good so we didn't see a sudden collective decline because there weren't enough of them, but now there are enough of them for us to observe a collective fall off in their subsequent performances.
There is a WADA rule of thumb, that if a group of athletes - like a national group - suddenly collectively improve their performances that is indicative of their doping. Conversely, a sudden collective decline indicates the same - but that they are coming off doping.
There's also the emotional high of winning a medal at the olympics. A lot of the Americans mentioned did better than expected at the olympics. Running a fast time at some diamond league doesn't mean much after that. But runners who did not perform as well as they wanted at the Olympics are probably fired up to get another opportunity to show what they can do.
Yes - a lot of American runners "did better than expected". I wonder why that could be? And then we suddenly see a reversion to their previous form. It's staring us in the face.
I can tell no one criticizing the americans supposed “underperformance” since paris has never run races after a planned peak. and then add that many of them have had to manage TWO peaks in the last 2 months, it’s unfair to assume any athlete should hold form after one peak let alone two.
I can tell no one criticizing the americans supposed “underperformance” since paris has never run races after a planned peak. and then add that many of them have had to manage TWO peaks in the last 2 months, it’s unfair to assume any athlete should hold form after one peak let alone two.
So we shouldn't expect American athletes to perform at a consistent level for any significant period? Yet that is exactly what we have seen with the great athletes in the sport - a consistent high level, year after year.
What do you mean by "Sydney's retreat to hurdles"? Sydney's primary event has been the hurdles since she was a teenager. Sydney ran 48.75 in the flat 400 on June 9th, well before her Olympic peak. I'm sure she could run faster and give Paulino a good battle if she focused on that event for one summer and peaked for it. Could Paulino likewise give Sydney a good battle in the hurdles? I doubt it!
I think what AwsiDooger is refering to is Sydney's decision last season to focus on the 400m flat, which was curtailed, and then switch back to the hurdles this season - when she could have continued with her 'unfinished business' in the the flat.
On times, Sydney & Paulino were closely matched last year, and some believe this may have contributed to Sydney's decision to target the hurdles again this year, rather than risk a close race or loss to Paulino in Paris. This decision was proven right, as not only did Sydney win by a big margin, but Paulino ran a time way faster than Sydney has ever done.
Some people on this board said Bol could never challenge Sydney, despite their PBs being 0.3 apart. Yet some of those same people seem to think that Sydney can still challenge Paulino, despite the latter's PB now being 0.58 better.
The gap between Paulino & Sydney's PBs on the flat is twice as big as the gap between Sydney and Bol in the hurdles.
What do you mean by "Sydney's retreat to hurdles"? Sydney's primary event has been the hurdles since she was a teenager. Sydney ran 48.75 in the flat 400 on June 9th, well before her Olympic peak. I'm sure she could run faster and give Paulino a good battle if she focused on that event for one summer and peaked for it. Could Paulino likewise give Sydney a good battle in the hurdles? I doubt it!
I think what AwsiDooger is refering to is Sydney's decision last season to focus on the 400m flat, which was curtailed, and then switch back to the hurdles this season - when she could have continued with her 'unfinished business' in the the flat.
On times, Sydney & Paulino were closely matched last year, and some believe this may have contributed to Sydney's decision to target the hurdles again this year, rather than risk a close race or loss to Paulino in Paris. This decision was proven right, as not only did Sydney win by a big margin, but Paulino ran a time way faster than Sydney has ever done.
Some people on this board said Bol could never challenge Sydney, despite their PBs being 0.3 apart. Yet some of those same people seem to think that Sydney can still challenge Paulino, despite the latter's PB now being 0.58 better.
The gap between Paulino & Sydney's PBs on the flat is twice as big as the gap between Sydney and Bol in the hurdles.
Thanks for explaining the "retreat" reference. I'm not sure that Sydney's experimenting with the 400 last year was a full-on event switch that meant she had retired from hurdling. I just thought Bobby was having his athletes try different things last year; remember he entered Mu in the 1500 at the US championships. As far as I know, the long-term plan was always for Sydney to run the hurdles at the 2024 Olympics (there was some questioning on this board about the possibility of her doubling, but I think it was generally understood that she would be hurdling in Paris). Please correct me if Sydney or Bobby ever said something different about their plans for Paris.
There are a couple issues with your data analysis:
You're comparing a time that Paulino ran at her peak to a time that Sydney ran when she wasn't at her peak. We have yet to see what Sydney can run for the flat 400 at her peak while focusing on that event. Even so, it's worth noting that Sydney had the world's fastest time in the 400 last year.
You're comparing a time that Bol ran at altitude to a time that Sydney ran at sea level. Bol's sea level PB is 0.93 slower than Sydney's. Additionally, Sydney's average margin of victory over Bol in their head to head 400m hurdles races is 1.3. Those are the reasons why some people on this board believe Bol cannot seriously challenge Sydney.
It will be interesting to see what Sydney does next year.
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