My 5 biggest overachievers and underachievers in athletics at the Paris Olympics

Tim definitely lost a few unpacked racew in that period, Commonwealth's and either Kenyan champs or African champs, I forget which.

The thing with both Wightman and Kerr is that t didn't matter that they hadn't run 3:28 because, so the argument went, they just needed to be strong enough to stay with Jakob in unpacked races and they'd have enough to kick by him. No one was ever arguing they could win from the front, and I'm assuming no one is arguing that Hocker could do that either.

Hocker's top end will always be his superpower, but I would bet quite a lot that it won't always be there when he wants it or he won't always be in position to make it count. The list of people who have beat Hocker this season alone is quite long. So, I don't expect him to have it all his way through to Tokyo. There's too many good guys. This time last year it didn't look like Kessler would be among the very best in the world, but here we are now, he's arguably the 5th best. A lot changes season-to-season. Except that still none of these guys has run sub-3:30 in a race without Jakob since 2020.

Yes he lost the Commonwealth Games and African Games 1500m Champs in 2018 to Manangoi, and then the Doha DL in 2019 (which was many months before the World Championships) to Manangoi. But Manangoi of course was injured for Doha and then would've been out of a 2020 Olympics due to his whereabouts failures had they been held in 2020. He was the one guy of the 2017-2020 range who had any shot vs. Tim, and he had his number in unpaced races.

Anyhow, I understood the logic for Wightman but it didn't seem as viable because Jakob ran a slower race than anticipated in Eugene and Jake quickly looked really beatable at Comm Games. I understand the logic, but the reason people bought into Kerr was really this winter season 3K and then Pre. And rightfully so as he did get a lot better.

The question for Hocker is like the question for Kerr. Will he hit a new level or return to being a competitive, but mid-pack DL guy who can elevate? You seem to think the latter, but I'm not sure you're right.

That hasn't been the case for Kerr at all. He now is expected to finish top 3 in any 1500-2mile race and not just in the global champs. Hocker meanwhile hit a far different level at USAs (3:30 with a 52 last lap), and he might be at a new normal. That doesn't mean 3:27 every time out, but it does mean being a step ahead of the secondary group of Kessler, Laros, Nordas, Habz, Reynold, Gourley, Hoare et al. for now. I guess I'm putting him where Yared has been, where you expect a top 3 or 4 finish at worst in most Diamond Leagues.

Wightman losing Commonwealth's was a bit of a surprise, but he said himself it was just too soon. He hadn't really come to terms with his World Champs win and struggled with being the favourite - he said that's why he took the lead earlier than he would have liked.

I may not have been clear about how I feel about Hocker going forward: I don't think he'll take a step back at all. I think he's now among the Top Four in the world with Jakob, Kerr, and Nuguse. He's stepped up and will now run with the confidence of a champion (I think, could be wrong). But he's not unbeatable. I can see a path to Jakob winning in Lausanne and I wouldn't put any money at all on who will win in Zurich when all four are in the race.

The thing Hocker will have to deal with now is that everyone will be concerned with what he's doing in the race. He's a marked man.