My Predictions for the US Men’s 1500 Olympic Team

Eric Holt makes the team. Toughest guy in the field. Knows how to race. Gutty, excellent race savvy, no media pressure, just one of the "other guys". But deadly.

Eric Holt has the distinct advantage of nothing to lose and everything to gain.

That being said, I still don't think he gets on. Even though he's gritty, everyone gets gritty at the mf Olympic Trials.

Would be a great story, but just sadly don't see it happening.

I can’t help but remember very clearly that some people were picking Holt to make the team last year in eerily similar fashion, and he finished last in the final before bouncing back and resuming winning immediately after the Champs. My gut tells me he’s one of those admirable underdog journeymen who unfortunately can never truly break through, but I’ll gladly accept being wrong on this.

I don’t imagine this race will go 57-57-59-kick like THOUGHTSLEADER postulated, nor that Nuguse will opt to gun for 3:30; I think it’s gonna go out no faster than 1:57. My guess is 1:59 at 800, then Nuguse leads the 3rd in 55.xx and then kick, probably 39s for the top guys. This is basically what transpired last year when Nuguse won and qualified rather safely, and I don’t know why he’d change what works.

I would acknowledge that Nuguse deserves to be considered the favorite but like many here I like Hocker for the win in the last 100m—with Nuguse still more likely to medal in Paris. Hocker looks ready, confident, the race should suit his strengths, and I think Nuguse will do more work at the front.

If AI can be super specific in its predictions, then so can I:

1. Cole Hocker 3:34.5
2. Yared Nuguse 3:34.7
3. Hobbs Kessler 3:35.2
4. Eric Holt 3:35.4
5. Joe Waskom 3:35.6
6. Cooper Teare 3:35.7
7. Colin Sahlman 3:36.0
8. Sam Prakel 3:36.2
9. Matt Centrowitz 3:36.3
10. Henry Wynne 3:36.9
11. Elliott Cook 3:37.2
12. Vincent Ciattei 3:37.6

Well my reasoning is the field is stronger this year. Kessler, Holt and Teare are a second-plus faster, Hocker is probably 2 seconds faster in terms of his form. Yared could afford to not push it much last year and Joe Waskom was the guy to make a move on him. No offense to Joe who was in 3:33 type shape last year, but I think that several guys are in better shape than he was then.

As for Holt, large difference between getting gapped by Kieran Lumb at the B heat of LAGP and coming hundredths away from beating Jake Wightman with a sub-53 last 400 in a 3:34 race. He’s got the races this year whereas last year he mostly had the workouts.

I think Nuguse will be a little sharper and less bogged down by heavy training. If he runs with the confidence he should, stays engaged and covers moves well, and does not make any big tactical mistakes, he should be on the team. He might play it a bit safe, which I wouldn’t fault him for.

Tend to agree with the consensus that Hocker is close to a lock. He has strength and speed and, importantly, the best acceleration in the field. There won’t be too many guys who can top that. On the other hand, he has not quite shown (IMO) the same fitness versus the world as he’s had at some points in the past - although he’s close to his best form and his strength is better than ever - and other guys have wheels too. If he ends up badly boxed with 200m to go, as he has sometimes, and then a gap forms to a few guys while he can’t get out and it’s a lowish 3:30s type race, that is by far where he is most vulnerable.

For Kessler it will all come down to whether he can run a solid race tactically and if he can stay calm under pressure. I think the consensus is way to pessimistic on him. Did everyone not watch indoor worlds? He took down some real guys there and that type of race is exactly the type of race you need to be able to be successful in when you’re competing at the OT. He seems to have a couple of missteps on tactics more often than not, so I’d guess their plan is to have him hang around the front, kind of like he did toward the end of indoor worlds. That has risks but he needs to try to take the risk of real tactical issues off the table, so it’s probably worth it. My gut is he makes the team. He’ll be most vulnerable if it’s slow and he spends too much time trying to get in position, adjusting where he’s at, and wastes energy. If it’s a 3:32 type race, he’s likely on the team.

Waskom - never know quite which Waskom you’re getting (may not be totally fair as am not as up to speed on NCAA), but the guy always seems to execute when it counts. If it’s a 3:35 race, especially if it heats up late, he will be extremely dangerous. His speed and comfort navigating a field are Hocker-esque. I’d suggest he’s likely to, assuming he’s anywhere near the front, nip Kessler in anything 3:34.00 and up.

Wynne - underrated dark horse and is always a bridesmaid, he will want it badly

Holt - very fit, think he will be 5th or 6th, partly because he’s never run a super fast type, but given his performance in New York, you can’t count him out

Teare - previously won USAs, has had serious wheels at times, but like the group I don’t see a great path for him in the 15 (but seems highly likely he’ll make the team in the 5); best chance is a front run by Nuguse where Teare leverages his newfound strength to a PB, and makes the team with his buddy Hocker

Houser - will need to show something new to win, but it’s always possible for guys who are still developing

Green - same as Houser, very interesting to see how Waskom has been the one to really convert NCAA success to the big leagues, which is clearly easier said than done, although no reason to believe Houser or Green can’t do it

Gregorek - has had a great career and has some super fast times to his name + great performances, has always been good for the sport, but it’s hard to summon the necessary speed after a certain point; should make the final but things would need to seriously break his way for him to make the team

Centro - even if he’s healthy, feels like he’s running for 4th or 5th; would love to see him make the team, but do not see a path unless he’s been intentionally not racing to try to build an additional top off of fitness, which does not seem right

Engels - has gotten some bad breaks over the years but glad he made Doha, even if he deserved to make more teams based on fitness; unfortunately, the fitness is not there anymore but he’s had a very respectable career

Sahlman - not really sure, top end fitness and speed are great, but it’s been a long season, the trials are a different type of racing than most of what he’s done, etc.; gut is he will be better positioned in 2025, 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Ciattei - super consistent but not yet at the level of being a threat to make the team

Prakel - real threat, especially if it’s a bit slow, but most likely outcome is mid pack finish 0.30-0.50s off the team

Comber - no real view but probably a bit of a longshot if the race is typical in any way

In summary, the boring answer is probably the right one: its the favorites who will dominate. There is probably a 50% chance someone not named Nuguse, Hocker, Kessler, or Waskom makes the team (putting aside the standard and so on), but that’s not saying much in a championship 1500 with 3 spots available. Think about for example how everyone has competed on the world stage - these guys have by far shown the most, especially if we’re thinking about a race being held in summer 2024. So, even odds on those four comprising the entire team vs. someone else sneaking in. Less than 5% chance someone else picks up the W (and, apologies if anyone got left about above). Should be a great race no matter what.

1st round won’t be exciting unless a fall or some crazy DQ happens. Top 7 each heat plus the next three fastest. All the top player should make it out.

Centro has scratched per the site.

Damn not like this. Did we potentially see Centro’s last race ever at LA Grand Prix?

Ciattei is a quiet guy- probably why no one is even giving him a mention. He's a tough runner with a 3:50 indoor mile this year on his resume. He has not learned to race smart yet. He still sits on the rail way too much, then gets boxed in in the last 200 and just not quick ehough to get through a hole on the inside.

Sit on someone's shoulder in the top 3 or 4 , respond to a move and then open it up in the last 200. He outkicked Kerr in the NCAAs outdoors and Prakel in the NCAAs indoors so he has the speed. But he doesn't have the speed to run a sub 52 second last 400 and in this race that is needed.

Give em hell, Vince.

I don’t see Grant Fisher losing.

The field should be a little stronger this year but I wonder if you’re feeling a certain bias. At this point last year, the consensus was that with Nuguse/Hocker/Teare/Kessler/Green, it was a highly competitive event. Of course Teare went home devastated and Kessler looked disappointingly flat in the homestretch, and Waskom was able to surprise for 2nd, so she perception changed after the fact. A similar example is the 2022 Worlds 5k final, which looked like possibly the strongest 5k field ever assembled—until half the favorites bombed, Oscar Chelimo and Grijalva went 3/4…fast-forward a year and many people were saying “Oh sure Jakob won last year but the field will be much stronger this time.”

But anyway, I’m not convinced that a couple more guys being in 3:30-3:33 shape is going to force the hand of a sub-3:30 guy who’s a very capable kicker in a 3:34 race. And the splits you suggested—57, 57, 59, kick—I think could be worse for Nuguse than winding it up after a 1:59 800. It barely (if at all, given tenths) gets him to 1200m faster than going 1:59-55.5-kick, and does it in a style that seems relatively harder on him and easier for the field, who could gather themselves with a 59 3rd lap rather than being stretched out and hanging on with 150 to go. Surely if he does do the 57-57 from the front, he needs to keep it rolling, rather than say “OK boys I’ve put in some work, now have a breather and then see if you can outkick me.”

Holt is running better than last year, but part of the reason why posters were picking Holt last year was his nationally televised win at the NYCGP where he blasted the last lap to win by over a second, which was an impressive race in its own right (though not as impressive as his recent 3:34.05). And then 2 weeks after the Championships, he ran 3:34.50 to win over a field that included 5 guys who’d just beaten him in the U.S. final. If you’re gonna use a loss to Kieran Lumb at last year’s LAGP as your point of comparison, you should compare it to his 10th place at LAGP this year behind Centro, Wynne, Prakel, Ciattei, because that’s more apples to apples, isn’t it? It’s kind of silly to quibble because I put him 4th in my predictions, which is rather good—where do you think he’ll place?

R.I.P. Centro btw. One of my 1500 field gone, 11 to go.

Amen!

I'm all for Holtmania, but what about VinceMania? Ciattei is 4 of 5 against Holt in 1500/mile races this year (and 10 of 16 lifetime).

Where's the love???

Still this but take Centro from “keep dreaming” to “enjoy retirement”.

Maybe some post-race bias. But last year's field looked more competitive than fast. You had two 3:32 guys in Kessler and Teare, Hocker who had a 3:31 PB but was on limited training and only in 3:32-3 shape. None of the college guys had run a fast time really. I think Yared kinda knew he could afford to let it lag and save up for the last 200.

Interesting tactical thought, and you might be right in terms of how Yared should be thinking. I just have seen him run as a pro, and he seems to not mind a slow 3rd lap before a very hard run from home. Look at Millrose, and some of his other circuit runs without Jakob. He can close very fast (sub-26) and hit a fast time in this manner. I think running a slow 3rd lap from the front is very easy for him, and the field will be all queuing up and fighting behind him. A 3:32 run in this way is something only he and probably Hocker can do.

On Holt, fair point on his rough LAGP, but I just didn't care much about his NYCGP win last year as it was such a slow race. This year's was more like what we could see. 4th is totally fine, I just think he is way ahead of last year so I wasn't a fan of that comp. The field is better, but he is better.

Seeing a lot of Ciattei love and after thinking about it, he probably has as good or a better shot than Prakel or Wynne. Also forgot to toss Elliott Cook in there whos had a fantastic year and is a good 800m guy too; would be a big factor in a slower race (which I don’t anticipate)

"he’ll leave it all on the line" Don't we ALL always do that!

On paper these are the logical three. Things never go exactly like they do on paper. Last Olympic Trials, Craig Engles, the defending national champion, was everybody's favorite to make the team. He finished fourth. Kessler has the times, but we saw at Pre how bad he is at running in packs. I suspect he's vulnerable to bad positioning. In a tactical race, which the Trials always are, bad positioning can cost a place on the Olympic team.

Which means Engels is making it this year (I'm delusional but mullet + mustache needs to be in Paris)

Yeah I agree and that was the logic of my "Hocker is the biggest lock" position - even though full disclosure I have almost no doubt Nuguse makes it. And that's a nice way to describe it - "gain(ing) from the dynamics of a US Trials race".

I mean it could go 2.00 at 800m - it really could. Put it this way, I think it's more likely to go 2 flat than it is to go 1.54.

Re Kesslers "random" comment - I mean yeah, stating the obvious really. Some of history's most famous races and upsets happened because of this - the infamous 1992 final is the best example of this. Because sure, if in some world they get to 1300m in 3min15.0 then it's going to be a game of who is positioned correctly vs who is the best runner because a lot of these guys can run 25.X in the final 200m with their fitness levels.