Brussels 2000m start lists out! Can Jakob break the world record??

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

There will never be proof of El Guerrouj cheating because even if he did the simple fact is, he got away with it.

As an 18 year old he ran 13.46 at the WJC in 92 and was third behind Geb and Ismael Kirui (this was the race before the infamous punch Kirui threw at Geb in the 1993 World Champs in Stuttgart) - so he was a pretty good junior but untapped over 1500m.Came onto the circuit as a miler in 94 and ran 3.33.53 over 1500m at age 20 and progressed nicely to 3.31 then 3.29 and 3.28.91 in 1997.

What happened in 1998 was well, given what we have seen over the last 25 years, quite seismic. It's one thing to drop your PR 2.91 seconds when you are a 3.40 runner or even a 3.33 runner. It's another to do it when you are a sub 3.29 runner and already the 2nd fastest in history (he went from 3.28.91 to 3.26.00).

In terms of how much he progressed the record it's not incredibly out of line - well, with respect to the 90's that is...

In 1974 when Bayi set the record in Christchurch NZ, he improved the mark by officially 0.9 seconds to 3.32.2 Coe then improved it by a tenth to 3.32.1. Ovett took 0.7 seconds and then Cram 1.1 seconds when he became the first to break 3.30. This was the largest drop seen in the record since Ryun broke Elliots record way back in 67.

But it's only when we get to the 90's do things really start heating up and especially so post 1992 (Barcelona) which coincidence or not, is when a certain endurance boosting drug starts become extremely prevalent in not just distance running but many endurance sports (cycling, XC skiing etc etc).

After running 3.28.86 in 92, Morceli smashes his WR by 1.49 seconds in 95 and El G rips a further 1.37 seconds off that in 98. Those are massive jumps and they are because you have to consider that this WR is now 25 years old and the only candidates within a second of the record were both implicated in doping use (Kiprop of course suspended and Lagat getting off on a technicality). Even with a mega-talent like Jakob and a massive performance aid in wavelight (that is almost impossible to quantify but which is really substantial), it seems unlikely this record is broken anytime soon. In fact out of nowhere, the 1500m is now the second longest record on the books after the 3000m - which now appears like it will be seriously threatened when Ingebrigtsen wants it within the next year or two. That matters because as we approach what now appears to be a genuine limit of human performance (a quarter century of really no challengers), the amounts by which this record should have been broken really should be much tighter and have far less dispersion.

In the 90's El G and Morceli alone combined for a 3.46 second drop in the record over 3 occasions in 5 years. Prior to that 6 athletes combined for a 2.70 second drop in the record over 8 occasions in 11 years. Honestly it doesn't really add up historically. Bottom line there is no hard proof but I think we would be remiss to not factor in the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence surrounding El Guerrouj and that era.

This is a very good post. One thing I think we should note is that pacemaking is a crucial part of this. Morceli's 3:27.37 is ridiculously impressive on rewatch because he only gets about 900m of pacing, and also has to fight through traffic and run a little extra on the bends before taking the lead. El Guerrouj/Jakob both got shepherded through 1100m of pacemaking in their best efforts, so it feels they are more optimal PB runs than Morceli's was. I would say Morceli despite a worse PB than Jakob is the larger outlier just like El Guerrouj considering the inferior pacemaking, spikes tech, lack of wavelight and so on. Like El Guerrouj, your first statement on whether he doped is true. You'd know more about me if in 1991 it is possible he had potential access to EPO because if that season was achieved clean, he was certainly in all-time (e.g. 3:29) level shape (3:31.0 SB, but more impressive WC performance than that with a 51.5 last lap in a 3:32.85 race) and then adding EPO/more training to that could definitely help constitute a jump to 3:26-level fitness by 1995.

EDIT: He also runs under 54 seconds the last lap (40.3 last 300)

Video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uBZKGsCC2c&t=...

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

I agree - it makes these performances of the 90's seem even more otherworldly. Out of the Mt Rushmore of 1500m performances (and I am omitting Kiprop here), Jakob's is by far the most optimally paced/run.

I mentioned this on another thread but it's crazy to me that Hicham in all his record attempts (I will say any time he broke 3.27 he was going after the record) he was never able to hit that 2.45.0-2.45.2 sweet spot that could have planted the record well under 3.26.00. He actually had a number of races splitting under 2.45 but that was clearly just beyond his limit as he could never muster the same power in the last 300. I don't think the most optimally run 1500m WR should have a 39.66 final 300m - to me that says the first 1200 was not close enough to that red line.

The Brussels race in 01 where Lagat runs 3.26.34 is the worst of all the super fast races - 53.65 at the front with El G and Lagat probably 54.0/54.1 - wildly inefficient, and you are right about the Morceli's WR from Nice (55.3, 56.5, 56.2, 40.3) which isn't that bad but as you said, only has pacing to 900m and for some reason he runs that first 800m competing with guys on the outside of lane 1.

Put it this way, with the advantages of today I'm certain Morceli runs 3.26.5 and Hicham 3.25.2/3.25.3. All this really does is amplify just how much these guys would be ahead of the best of the last 25 years and make that dispersion at the top of the event even more historically implausible/unlikely (unless you factor in "something else")

John Wesley Harding wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Just in response to your edit regarding Morceli closing in 40.3 - remember that Jakob closed in 40.2 in Silesia.

That said, I think part of the secret to Jakob’s (and Nordas’s) 1500m success is staying within themselves through the first 3 laps before finishing with all they’ve got, which results in maximizing their performance. Jakob ran ~3:30.1 pace from 100m-600m in Silesia, and that was completely his choice since he let the pacers gap him by a few meters during that segment. One might assume he could run a faster time by hitting faster early splits, but I’m not sure if that’s true in practice.

Anyone who doesn’t think Jakob received exceptional pacing help in Silesia is being greedy and unrealistic. Sure, the fact that he hung ~4m off McSweyn in the first 700m might cost him a tiny fraction, but that’s more than made up for by having McSweyn to run down in the following lap and race around the curve to 1200m—you can’t get that in just any 3:27 race. Plus, as I already alluded to, Jakob has an excellent sense of pace not just in terms of what’s on the clock but what he is physically capable of.