Ok genuine question, I really would like to know the answer.
Why don’t all the racers go out there are race as close to their own PB as they can? I ask my wife this, and she keeps say, “that wouldn’t work”, but why?
If you turn up, run your fastest, and still come up short, you didn’t train hard enough. There was nothing you could have done more.
Why get sucked into all these tactics? You’re either fast enough or you’re not.
mentally, these guys know, that if they push it near a PB pace, there is at least a 50% chance they will break, and not even be in the hunt during the last few laps, while they are confident they can give themselves a chance to be in mix running it tactically.
so they are killing their shot at gold but giving a better shot at one of the other medals. you could call it cowardice
That's a fair point but...
A 12.42 5000m is average 61 seconds a lap (60.96) and there 12.5 of them.
The opening 1600m of that final was 4.24 (obviously averaging 66's), the next 1600 was 4.20 (65's), the 3rd 1600m 4.00 (60's) - and a lot of that was because the final 400m of that 1600m segment was 54.18 seconds
So okay you are right - it's a massive risk to go out and try and hammer 61's from the gun - especially no wavelight to make sure your rhythm is perfect and you never run a single 100m too fast or too slow. But why and how after an opening 1600 of 4.24 are you not able to at a minimum start running close to that kind of pace (61.0) given that you are capable of that for the full distance and almost 1/3 of that is already run and run at a pace not even close to that speed? Even worse is how the field got to 3200m in 8.44 (!!!!!) and couldn't muster any better than 2.35.4 for that next 1000m (62.1 pace!)
Honestly it's inexplicable and bizarre. Even if we attribute the 10000m Aregawi ran to his inability to lift the pace, what are the excuses for Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet who only ran the 5000? Is it possible both of them had just insanely off days and couldn't physically do so? They still ran under 54 for the final lap themselves so that shows there was something there on the day right? I think the answer is quite simply these guys are deers in the headlights when it comes to this particular level of racing without a nice little LED light telling how to run. And if you don't subscribe to that then the only plausible explanation left is that they are just stupid.
mentally, these guys know, that if they push it near a PB pace, there is at least a 50% chance they will break, and not even be in the hunt during the last few laps, while they are confident they can give themselves a chance to be in mix running it tactically.
so they are killing their shot at gold but giving a better shot at one of the other medals. you could call it cowardice
That's a fair point but...
A 12.42 5000m is average 61 seconds a lap (60.96) and there 12.5 of them.
The opening 1600m of that final was 4.24 (obviously averaging 66's), the next 1600 was 4.20 (65's), the 3rd 1600m 4.00 (60's) - and a lot of that was because the final 400m of that 1600m segment was 54.18 seconds
So okay you are right - it's a massive risk to go out and try and hammer 61's from the gun - especially no wavelight to make sure your rhythm is perfect and you never run a single 100m too fast or too slow. But why and how after an opening 1600 of 4.24 are you not able to at a minimum start running close to that kind of pace (61.0) given that you are capable of that for the full distance and almost 1/3 of that is already run and run at a pace not even close to that speed? Even worse is how the field got to 3200m in 8.44 (!!!!!) and couldn't muster any better than 2.35.4 for that next 1000m (62.1 pace!)
Honestly it's inexplicable and bizarre. Even if we attribute the 10000m Aregawi ran to his inability to lift the pace, what are the excuses for Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet who only ran the 5000? Is it possible both of them had just insanely off days and couldn't physically do so? They still ran under 54 for the final lap themselves so that shows there was something there on the day right? I think the answer is quite simply these guys are deers in the headlights when it comes to this particular level of racing without a nice little LED light telling how to run. And if you don't subscribe to that then the only plausible explanation left is that they are just stupid.
I would like to see someone try to do this, simply because fast times are exiting. However, I think you are either not a serious runner, or are forgetting just how hard it is to mentally overcome the significant discomfort that happens when they accelerate to PR pace. There's a reason that these top athletes all have workouts specifically to get them better at "shifting." If the pace is comfortable or at least not razor close to being too fast (which is exactly what pr pace is), then its hard to leave that comfortable pace, and break away from the pack. really hard. So hard that nobody, not even racers considered to be great tacticians try it. Remember how the second Kenyan went out way to hard and got swallowed by the pack? He went for it, and paid dearly.
A 12.42 5000m is average 61 seconds a lap (60.96) and there 12.5 of them.
The opening 1600m of that final was 4.24 (obviously averaging 66's), the next 1600 was 4.20 (65's), the 3rd 1600m 4.00 (60's) - and a lot of that was because the final 400m of that 1600m segment was 54.18 seconds
So okay you are right - it's a massive risk to go out and try and hammer 61's from the gun - especially no wavelight to make sure your rhythm is perfect and you never run a single 100m too fast or too slow. But why and how after an opening 1600 of 4.24 are you not able to at a minimum start running close to that kind of pace (61.0) given that you are capable of that for the full distance and almost 1/3 of that is already run and run at a pace not even close to that speed? Even worse is how the field got to 3200m in 8.44 (!!!!!) and couldn't muster any better than 2.35.4 for that next 1000m (62.1 pace!)
Honestly it's inexplicable and bizarre. Even if we attribute the 10000m Aregawi ran to his inability to lift the pace, what are the excuses for Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet who only ran the 5000? Is it possible both of them had just insanely off days and couldn't physically do so? They still ran under 54 for the final lap themselves so that shows there was something there on the day right? I think the answer is quite simply these guys are deers in the headlights when it comes to this particular level of racing without a nice little LED light telling how to run. And if you don't subscribe to that then the only plausible explanation left is that they are just stupid.
I would like to see someone try to do this, simply because fast times are exiting. However, I think you are either not a serious runner, or are forgetting just how hard it is to mentally overcome the significant discomfort that happens when they accelerate to PR pace. There's a reason that these top athletes all have workouts specifically to get them better at "shifting." If the pace is comfortable or at least not razor close to being too fast (which is exactly what pr pace is), then its hard to leave that comfortable pace, and break away from the pack. really hard. So hard that nobody, not even racers considered to be great tacticians try it. Remember how the second Kenyan went out way to hard and got swallowed by the pack? He went for it, and paid dearly.
Thanks you made me laugh.
The middle part of your little synopsis here made very little sense but I was drawn to your last 2 sentences which basically told me all I need to know about your running knowledge.
The "second Kenyan" 's name is Ishmael Kipkurui. Do you know his PR? It's 13.05 - not even remotely in the same league of the vast majority of that field, 7 of whom have run under 12.50. By PR he was the second slowest in the field and was 13 of 17 in terms of seasons best.
You want to know why Kipkurui's "going out way too hard" didn't work? It's because he's not that good. He didn't even "go out hard" - he basically ran a 30 second 200m early in the race (actually it happened exactly after 2 laps) when the field was content running 33's. That wasn't going for it - that was the slowest guy in the race with basically zero international experience just running foolishly.
Don't talk to me about "serious running" when this is your level of intellect and analysis mate.
mentally, these guys know, that if they push it near a PB pace, there is at least a 50% chance they will break, and not even be in the hunt during the last few laps, while they are confident they can give themselves a chance to be in mix running it tactically.
so they are killing their shot at gold but giving a better shot at one of the other medals. you could call it cowardice
That's a fair point but...
A 12.42 5000m is average 61 seconds a lap (60.96) and there 12.5 of them.
The opening 1600m of that final was 4.24 (obviously averaging 66's), the next 1600 was 4.20 (65's), the 3rd 1600m 4.00 (60's) - and a lot of that was because the final 400m of that 1600m segment was 54.18 seconds
So okay you are right - it's a massive risk to go out and try and hammer 61's from the gun - especially no wavelight to make sure your rhythm is perfect and you never run a single 100m too fast or too slow. But why and how after an opening 1600 of 4.24 are you not able to at a minimum start running close to that kind of pace (61.0) given that you are capable of that for the full distance and almost 1/3 of that is already run and run at a pace not even close to that speed? Even worse is how the field got to 3200m in 8.44 (!!!!!) and couldn't muster any better than 2.35.4 for that next 1000m (62.1 pace!)
Honestly it's inexplicable and bizarre. Even if we attribute the 10000m Aregawi ran to his inability to lift the pace, what are the excuses for Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet who only ran the 5000? Is it possible both of them had just insanely off days and couldn't physically do so? They still ran under 54 for the final lap themselves so that shows there was something there on the day right? I think the answer is quite simply these guys are deers in the headlights when it comes to this particular level of racing without a nice little LED light telling how to run. And if you don't subscribe to that then the only plausible explanation left is that they are just stupid.
You are way off! It takes a lot of gusto to run hard from the front the first half of a race. Usually, the man who runs hard in the lead the first half of the race get sucked out the back end. I said for weeks on here, The Guys need to split 4000m sub-10:20 or J Ingebrigtsen was likely to win. I am sure The Guys knew the same. It's one thing to know something, it's another to do something.
He won the 5k because he's as strong as anyone else but has more speed than that field, which incidentally is the same reason he lost the 1500 (last year and this year).
Jakob needs to accept his weaknesses and work on them if he wants to do the double next year. Claiming he has a mysterious virus which impacts his 1500 but not 5k for the third year in a row would probably become tiresome.
I actually agree with this, not sure why it has so many downvotes. If he ran a few Diamond League 5K’s, I have to think that he’d be in world record territory. There’s no way that someone who ran 7:54 for the 2 mile would have a ceiling of 12:48
Don’t forget about the weather you can’t run 12:50 on a hot day period. Those two 1500m runners Jakob and Katir are a rare breed of runners. They both are fast and strong at both events. No many athletes can do that besides these two athletes I can only recall El G and Bernard Lagat. Fast or slow race under any conditions there’s no much you can do about it period.
All 4 are strongly suspected of being dopers of course. This tends to help the 1500 runner at 5000m.
So you think Jakob and Katir are doping but the Ethiopians are not?
He won the 5k because he's as strong as anyone else but has more speed than that field, which incidentally is the same reason he lost the 1500 (last year and this year).
Jakob needs to accept his weaknesses and work on them if he wants to do the double next year. Claiming he has a mysterious virus which impacts his 1500 but not 5k for the third year in a row would probably become tiresome.
I actually agree with this, not sure why it has so many downvotes. If he ran a few Diamond League 5K’s, I have to think that he’d be in world record territory. There’s no way that someone who ran 7:54 for the 2 mile would have a ceiling of 12:48
Based on his 1500 and 2 mile times he can run 12:35 probably right now.
I would like to see someone try to do this, simply because fast times are exiting. However, I think you are either not a serious runner, or are forgetting just how hard it is to mentally overcome the significant discomfort that happens when they accelerate to PR pace. There's a reason that these top athletes all have workouts specifically to get them better at "shifting." If the pace is comfortable or at least not razor close to being too fast (which is exactly what pr pace is), then its hard to leave that comfortable pace, and break away from the pack. really hard. So hard that nobody, not even racers considered to be great tacticians try it. Remember how the second Kenyan went out way to hard and got swallowed by the pack? He went for it, and paid dearly.
Thanks you made me laugh.
The middle part of your little synopsis here made very little sense but I was drawn to your last 2 sentences which basically told me all I need to know about your running knowledge.
The "second Kenyan" 's name is Ishmael Kipkurui. Do you know his PR? It's 13.05 - not even remotely in the same league of the vast majority of that field, 7 of whom have run under 12.50. By PR he was the second slowest in the field and was 13 of 17 in terms of seasons best.
You want to know why Kipkurui's "going out way too hard" didn't work? It's because he's not that good. He didn't even "go out hard" - he basically ran a 30 second 200m early in the race (actually it happened exactly after 2 laps) when the field was content running 33's. That wasn't going for it - that was the slowest guy in the race with basically zero international experience just running foolishly.
Don't talk to me about "serious running" when this is your level of intellect and analysis mate.
Truly, your inability do come to logical conclusions besed on decades of evidence amazes me. Simply put, the reason that the best runners in the world don't run their best pace is because it's to hard mentally and far too risky. I know this because for the past decade, almost all, if not all championship 5 and 10ks have all come down to a final lap or final 1000 meters. If running at PR pace was doable for these top athletes, they would do it. The fact that no champions ever win by running sub 12:50 pace is proof that its not a sound strategy. Its true that Kipkurui made an rookie mistake, but Yomif Kejelcha would have suffered the same fate had he tried what Kipkurui tried. Your experience running 25 minute 5ks on JV does not compare to all time greats who have run 12:41.
When you have 2 runners who are 3:27 and 3:28. You don't run 13:15 lol
None of the 12:40-42 runners have a medal. Good job guys ! (ironic)
It's complicated. But I generally agree they need to be pushing the pace from the onset and be brave. We don't know what goes into their heads though, and we don't know their motivations or how they are feeling. I'm not going to assume they are just stupid though. But it does raise some questions.
The reason they don't push the pace is simple, they are Ethiopians and they never do, its not in their nature(bar Bekele 08 and Haile 03). I cant be certain but I'm sure it must be something that is drilled into them since youth because it's a defining characteristic of Ethiopians in Championship races.
This. I don't know what the reason is, but hardly any Ethiopians push the pace. (BTW, I think Geb '03 refers to the 10k, where Bekele beat him anyway, but had to close in sub-13 to do it).
Kenyans are NOT always like this, for example Ngugi '88 or Churuiyot '19.
What it comes down to is controlled positive splitting. Suppose based on the conditions and lack of pacing, you are capable of front-running 2:35-2:35-2:35-2:35-2:30, for a total time of 12:50. Your problem is the kickers can probably hang with you and then close in 2:28 or faster.
But what about running 2:32-2:33-2:34-2:35-2:36? That 7:39 first 3k in the heat is going to burn off a lot of people. And if you hold it together the last 2k, they're not coming back. Sure, you might not drop Jakob, but you've blown the race open in a real way. (And if you can do 2:30-2:32-2:34-2:36-2:38, even better).
I think the challenge is that a lot of the top Ethiopians CAN'T do controlled positive splits like this. I've always found this surprising because a lot of pretty good high school and college runners run best times this way. And there are pros, especially Kenyans, who can do it. But I'm not sure the top Ethiopians can, or at least there isn't evidence of it. And it's risky to try and fail. If it's not your day, you'll run 2:32-2:33-2:36-2:40-2:45, end up in 12th place or something and people will say you ran stupid. If you're a bit too tentative, you'll run 2:32-2:35-2:34-2:36-2:33, won't burn anybody off, and will get swamped on the last lap.
Ok genuine question, I really would like to know the answer.
Why don’t all the racers go out there are race as close to their own PB as they can? I ask my wife this, and she keeps say, “that wouldn’t work”, but why?
If you turn up, run your fastest, and still come up short, you didn’t train hard enough. There was nothing you could have done more.
Why get sucked into all these tactics? You’re either fast enough or you’re not.
All those PBs came in paced races on the Diamond League circuit. Leading a race means you are taking the wind for everyone else and exerting more effort. When the top runners are all within a few seconds of each other, it pretty much means you are sacrificing your own race while the rest of the field gets towed along
There are no wind in those big stadiums. It is like running indoors.
Truly, your inability do come to logical conclusions besed on decades of evidence amazes me. Simply put, the reason that the best runners in the world don't run their best pace is because it's to hard mentally and far too risky. I know this because for the past decade, almost all, if not all championship 5 and 10ks have all come down to a final lap or final 1000 meters. If running at PR pace was doable for these top athletes, they would do it. The fact that no champions ever win by running sub 12:50 pace is proof that its not a sound strategy. Its true that Kipkurui made an rookie mistake, but Yomif Kejelcha would have suffered the same fate had he tried what Kipkurui tried. Your experience running 25 minute 5ks on JV does not compare to all time greats who have run 12:41.
There is a middle ground you are missing. From 1800 out, you can push at sub-PB pace (59.5-61) with the intent of taking out the kickers and making it as hard as possible for Katir/Grijalva/Krop/sick Jakob to hang on and be there for the final 400. You do not accomplish this by running reasonably hard, but not that hard in a way that has every legut contender in the race running sub-55 (and mostly sub-54.5) the last 400. Their strategy did knock out Nordas, Nur, Kipkirui, Chelimo while dulling Gressier's kick. In other words it took out the guys in 12:55 type shape or tired for whatever reason
The problem with pushing from further out is not that this is always such a bad idea, but rather it requires more courage/belief than just the half-assed tactics the Ethiopians do in the championship setting when it's hotter than ideal. They have no problem running with a little more courage in the Diamond League where time matters more and they can't afford to be comfortable the last 1600 meters if they hope to make the team.
This post was edited 32 seconds after it was posted.
Can you run 4:20 pace for two miles? I get what you’re saying but you don’t have to be an ass about it and call them stupid. Especially when you can’t feel the level at which these athletes run.
seriously. i have no idea what they are doing. you never pull a tactical against a person with a significantly higher PR than you in a lower distance race. these guys should've learned from all the years of lagat/elguerrouj dominance.
1) you have a faster PR than jakob in the 5000m
2) jakob has a faster PR than you in the 1500m
taking turns running 800s at 12:45 pace would've given them a chance at first place. trying to outsprint a person who is significantly faster than you in the 1500m is absolutely not a good idea.
Oh, that's all they had to do? Just run near world record pace in hot conditions without pacers a few days after a qualifying heat. The fastest championship final ever is 12:52 and that was Kipchoge, El G and Bekele. The Oly record is 12:57 by Bekele.
While I agree their tactics didn't leave them a chance of winning against the fast 1500m finishers, I don't think "run it like it's a DL race" or "just run 12;45 lol" would've worked any better.
The middle part of your little synopsis here made very little sense but I was drawn to your last 2 sentences which basically told me all I need to know about your running knowledge.
The "second Kenyan" 's name is Ishmael Kipkurui. Do you know his PR? It's 13.05 - not even remotely in the same league of the vast majority of that field, 7 of whom have run under 12.50. By PR he was the second slowest in the field and was 13 of 17 in terms of seasons best.
You want to know why Kipkurui's "going out way too hard" didn't work? It's because he's not that good. He didn't even "go out hard" - he basically ran a 30 second 200m early in the race (actually it happened exactly after 2 laps) when the field was content running 33's. That wasn't going for it - that was the slowest guy in the race with basically zero international experience just running foolishly.
Don't talk to me about "serious running" when this is your level of intellect and analysis mate.
Truly, your inability do come to logical conclusions besed on decades of evidence amazes me. Simply put, the reason that the best runners in the world don't run their best pace is because it's to hard mentally and far too risky. I know this because for the past decade, almost all, if not all championship 5 and 10ks have all come down to a final lap or final 1000 meters. If running at PR pace was doable for these top athletes, they would do it. The fact that no champions ever win by running sub 12:50 pace is proof that its not a sound strategy. Its true that Kipkurui made an rookie mistake, but Yomif Kejelcha would have suffered the same fate had he tried what Kipkurui tried. Your experience running 25 minute 5ks on JV does not compare to all time greats who have run 12:41.
Can you read dude?
Never once did I suggest that these guys go out and run their max pace from the gun.
But if a runner X is able to average 61 seconds a lap for a full 12.5, how is it possible that after running 6 or 7 laps at 64 seconds - clearly a markedly different energy cost, that they can't increase that pace for the remaining 5.5 laps to at a very minimum the pace they are capable running twice the distance at?
Are you mentally challenged? You can't see this?
I know I am right because we have seen it so many times before and I'll give you just one example. In 1997 Daniel Komen was a 12.39 runner so capable of running 60.7 seconds a lap at his absolute best. The 97 world 5000m final went out in 8.33 for the first 2 miles which clearly was very easy for Komen as he then was able to run the next 1600m in 4.04.02 - a "mile" with splits even slower than his average WR pace. In doing so he effectively ended any chance the "kickers" had in the race (notably Baumann and Bitok).
So why after an even considerably slower opening 2 miles, were none of the Ethiopians with comparable times to Komen over 5000m, able to not lift the pace to that level? You don't think those low 12.40 guys are physically capable of running a 4.00 1600m after running 8.13 for the opening 3000M?!!
You might be surprised at what my level of competitive running and involvement in the sport was my friend. Not everyone that posts here is some 25min 5000m "JV" runner - not that this is a requisite for knowledge in the sport so congrats on being a pretentious a--hole as well as having a complete lack of knowledge and understanding yourself. This discussion is over.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Truly, your inability do come to logical conclusions besed on decades of evidence amazes me. Simply put, the reason that the best runners in the world don't run their best pace is because it's to hard mentally and far too risky. I know this because for the past decade, almost all, if not all championship 5 and 10ks have all come down to a final lap or final 1000 meters. If running at PR pace was doable for these top athletes, they would do it. The fact that no champions ever win by running sub 12:50 pace is proof that its not a sound strategy. Its true that Kipkurui made an rookie mistake, but Yomif Kejelcha would have suffered the same fate had he tried what Kipkurui tried. Your experience running 25 minute 5ks on JV does not compare to all time greats who have run 12:41.
There is a middle ground you are missing. From 1800 out, you can push at sub-PB pace (59.5-61) with the intent of taking out the kickers and making it as hard as possible for Katir/Grijalva/Krop/sick Jakob to hang on and be there for the final 400. You do not accomplish this by running reasonably hard, but not that hard in a way that has every legut contender in the race running sub-55 (and mostly sub-54.5) the last 400. Their strategy did knock out Nordas, Nur, Kipkirui, Chelimo while dulling Gressier's kick. In other words it took out the guys in 12:55 type shape or tired for whatever reason
The problem with pushing from further out is not that this is always such a bad idea, but rather it requires more courage/belief than just the half-assed tactics the Ethiopians do in the championship setting when it's hotter than ideal. They have no problem running with a little more courage in the Diamond League where time matters more and they can't afford to be comfortable the last 1600 meters if they hope to make the team.
TL, we may have had our disagreements in the past - one thing I think we can agree on and I know that you can see it in this instance as well, is that this guy really has absolutely no freaking clue what he/she is talking about. My guess is our shared (correct btw) logic is going in one ear and out the other.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
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