Imagine what it would be like to have competent anti-doping agencies that actually catch the dopers so that we wouldn't have to speculate and could instead just assume that anyone who didn't get caught had a 99% chance of being clean.
Not sure why this is getting downvoted. Are people actually against the idea of having anti-doping agencies that reliably and consistently catch dopers?
Your post implies that there is uncertainty around the dopers they do catch. To be clear Shelby is a cheat
2 years into her ban, I'm over this fence sitting.
you're still not sure? Look at her progression as a runner, especially from 2018-2020.
I don't understand the judgement of her progression. Starting from when she was 20 and began taking the 1500 seriously, she had a steady progression at ages where runners are expected to improve:
4:13 (at 20) 4:10 and NCAA champ (21) 4:09 (22) 4:03 as first year pro (23) 4:06 (24) 3:57 (25) 3:54 (26)
Sure, if you myopically look at 24-25 you might think it was a huge jump. But you have to look at the 4:03 at 23. The year after that was an aberration in her times. She probably could have run 4:00 that year in the right circumstances. That was the year she won her first US championship in the 5000. Had she been in the right race and run 4:00 like she probably could have, then her progression looks like this:
4:13 (at 20) 4:10 and NCAA champ (21) 4:09 (22) 4:03 as first year pro (23) 4:00 (24) 3:57 (25) 3:54 (26)
About as steady as can be!
This is not steady progression at all. If it was we’d see a lot more people running sub 355. Shelby’s random 2018 jumps were a clear cut sign of doping. And she kept improving. Cheater be gone.
Yes - unless it's USATF-certified (or in other countries by their federation etc.). That said - I feel bad for the clean participants beaten by this banned doper.
The next person was a male almost 5 minutes behind her….. if anyone in this race is upset about placing one position lower because SH ran the race, they need to reconsider their life
Not sure why this is getting downvoted. Are people actually against the idea of having anti-doping agencies that reliably and consistently catch dopers?
Your post implies that there is uncertainty around the dopers they do catch. To be clear Shelby is a cheat
No, it doesn't. My clearly stated complaint is that they do not "catch the dopers," leaving people to speculate as to who is clean and who is not, and I literally said that I want to know that people who don't get busted are clean (not the other way around) with reasonable certainty. It's the sensitivity, not the specificity that I take issue with, and I did not imply otherwise.
I want anti-doping agencies to catch enough of the dopers that we do not have to speculate about who is clean and who isn't.
the road race probably wasn't governed by the rules. imo, she should be allowed to run any race that allows her, but because she is a known cheat, she should be disqualified from any prize money and top finisher place.
Yes - unless it's USATF-certified (or in other countries by their federation etc.). That said - I feel bad for the clean participants beaten by this banned doper.
Feel sorry for someone who would have won with a 37 minute time? Not exactly a competitive race. Its like me feeling bad for signing up for a 5K local charity race and winning, when half the field walked
Yes - unless it's USATF-certified (or in other countries by their federation etc.). That said - I feel bad for the clean participants beaten by this banned doper.
Feel sorry for someone who would have won with a 37 minute time? Not exactly a competitive race. Its like me feeling bad for signing up for a 5K local charity race and winning, when half the field walked
It doesn't matter how competitive or not competitive they are, it's still weird for her to show up at these places and compete.
It is not a sense of vengeance. Just complete exasperation. What the heck has to happen for some of the commenters here to admit doping? Get a positive test with no credible explanation? No. Be directly associated with known dopes? No. Run times that are clearly suspect which historically only dopers have run? No. Have a progression that makes no sense for a clean athlete? No again. Houlihan has all of these red flags, yet some people here will accept nothing short of an outright confession, and even then would find a way to minimize it. I mean, "if it is legitimate"? My goodness.
It's not too hard to get people here to accept the things you list as proof of doping if the athlete involved is not American. It's human nature. About the only group of Major League Baseball fans who don't almost universally think Barry Bonds cheated are San Francisco Giant fans. If Houlihan was a Kenyan people here would want her drawn and quartered.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Clarification
I don't understand the judgement of her progression. Starting from when she was 20 and began taking the 1500 seriously, she had a steady progression at ages where runners are expected to improve:
4:13 (at 20) 4:10 and NCAA champ (21) 4:09 (22) 4:03 as first year pro (23) 4:06 (24) 3:57 (25) 3:54 (26)
Sure, if you myopically look at 24-25 you might think it was a huge jump. But you have to look at the 4:03 at 23. The year after that was an aberration in her times. She probably could have run 4:00 that year in the right circumstances. That was the year she won her first US championship in the 5000. Had she been in the right race and run 4:00 like she probably could have, then her progression looks like this:
4:13 (at 20) 4:10 and NCAA champ (21) 4:09 (22) 4:03 as first year pro (23) 4:00 (24) 3:57 (25) 3:54 (26)
About as steady as can be!
This is not steady progression at all. If it was we’d see a lot more people running sub 355. Shelby’s random 2018 jumps were a clear cut sign of doping. And she kept improving. Cheater be gone.
If you don't think that's a steady progression, I'd like you to show what is.
Feel sorry for someone who would have won with a 37 minute time? Not exactly a competitive race. Its like me feeling bad for signing up for a 5K local charity race and winning, when half the field walked
It doesn't matter how competitive or not competitive they are, it's still weird for her to show up at these places and compete.
Well if its not part of the ban, then she can race it. Simple
Shelby didn't plateau in 2017. She won her first national titles that year! She was a demonstrably better runner in 2017 than the year before. Even the letsrun crew noticed it and anointed her a star. They wrote: "Houlihan is establishing herself as one of America’s best distance runners." She was absolutely good enough to run 4:00 that year.
If she could absolutely run 4 flat that year why didn't she?
Good for her for winning the NT, but Shelby lowered her PR from 15:08 to 15 flat. Again steady non suspicious progression from her in 2017--But to lower your PR from 15 flat to 14:34 the following year is bonkers.
People don't run what they're capable of for lots of reasons. Training for other events, bad weather, get sick, bad pacing, championship style race, etc. Jakob hasn't run a 5000 faster than 12:48, but nearly everyone here thinks he can. You acknowledge that Shelby got better in the 5000 in 2017. Isn't it reasonable to think that improved strength would have helped her 1500?
If you want to honestly analyze her improvement from 15:00 to 14:34 from 2017 to 2018, then keep in mind her 15:00 in 2017 came in the heats of the world championships. It's a good bet she could have run faster in an all-out rabbited time trial.
This is not steady progression at all. If it was we’d see a lot more people running sub 355. Shelby’s random 2018 jumps were a clear cut sign of doping. And she kept improving. Cheater be gone.
If you don't think that's a steady progression, I'd like you to show what is.
Check out someone like Jenny Simpson. Jenny broke 4 in college and had been maintaining that ever since. Check out someone like Emma Coburns steeple progression. The only big jumps as a pro would be right when she left college. Check Nikki hiltz check heather Maclean
If she could absolutely run 4 flat that year why didn't she?
Good for her for winning the NT, but Shelby lowered her PR from 15:08 to 15 flat. Again steady non suspicious progression from her in 2017--But to lower your PR from 15 flat to 14:34 the following year is bonkers.
People don't run what they're capable of for lots of reasons. Training for other events, bad weather, get sick, bad pacing, championship style race, etc. Jakob hasn't run a 5000 faster than 12:48, but nearly everyone here thinks he can. You acknowledge that Shelby got better in the 5000 in 2017. Isn't it reasonable to think that improved strength would have helped her 1500?
If you want to honestly analyze her improvement from 15:00 to 14:34 from 2017 to 2018, then keep in mind her 15:00 in 2017 came in the heats of the world championships. It's a good bet she could have run faster in an all-out rabbited time trial.
That’s nice what happened in the final? If she has the strength why didn’t she go with the leaders. Her sus progression combined with the positive test, it’s very clear she cheated for those gains
She finished a lot closer to the leaders in the 2017 final than she did in the 2016 Olympic final. Again: the evidence shows she was a better runner in 2017 than 2016.
the more attention, positive or negative, you give Shelbo the more relevant she becomes and she doesn’t deserve to still be relevant in the sport as a convicted doper 🤷