If Chaptegei and Aregawi make a fast paced race i think Jakob won't be able to follow them. They can ran the 5.000 in 12.35-12.40 while Jakob never ever have run that fast on that distance. Never even closely.
He ran 12:48 winning easily two years ago. He could run 12:40 tomorrow.
I could not disagree more. Watching paced time trials is interesting sometimes, but if every race was a time trial the sport would lose a huge amount of its intrigue. How you can say that men racing mano a mano is not “real” racing is beyond me. You have it backwards if anything.
Edit: Regarding your note on Seb Coe - sure, it’s a nice bonus for his legacy that he got his 3:29, but it’s not being one of 8 men to win Olympic gold and break 3:30 that makes him a hands-down top-3 1500 runner of all time, it’s being the only man to win two Olympic golds in the event.
Completely agree with this take. Track is fundamentally about racing, with all the uncertainty in tactics, skill and strength. Time trials are a different thing entirely--seeing the limits of human capabilities. Both have their place, but Diamond League is about racing and so time trials should be secondary.
If Chaptegei and Aregawi make a fast paced race i think Jakob won't be able to follow them. They can ran the 5.000 in 12.35-12.40 while Jakob never ever have run that fast on that distance. Never even closely.
Of course he can run that fast or nearly so, but it doesn’t matter. Do you think the winning time in Budapest is going to be 12:35? No chance. Try maybe 12:55 or 13:05 or even slower. Jakob will be well prepared to close the others down in such a race.
I hope you're right but keep in mind that Jakob will have only 4 days of recovery between the 1500m final and the 5.000m final (23 August-27 August) while the 10.000m runners will have 7 days of recovery (20 Aug - 27 Aug). So they will be more fresh and brillant than Jakob.
In light of the Chebet withdrawal, next question for you….what’s the deal with Hassan? Why does she absent herself from all of these races while her rivals are fighting it out and posting fast times? She opened nicely in Hengelo, but then Stumptown?? Is she savvy, scared, just doing her own thing??
She is scheduled for London DL 5000 against McColgan. Hope she doesn't withdraw as I am planning on going!
Inside information I am privy to - expect Gidey to make an attempt to wrestle back her 5000m record in London.
I very much like pacers and lights! And Jakob will much likely need pacers to beat El Guerrouj (who also got pacers)… But I also like your idea of front running stellar times (without lights, pacers and so, yes maybe in old shoes / tracks, even! -I’m not joking). -Rudisha’s run in 2012 was of course memorable and stellar (of course no pacers) as Cheruiyot’s Doha 2019, and even Jakob’s Two mile (pacers not that important).;And I like xc competitions (both hilly and flat ones), and so much more… And I too is “A Wise Old Man”, and sometimes a little stupid… What the heck -it’s exciting and joyful to speculate, and disagree, and stumbling along in this strange English language…
Are you the poster previously known as est un autre, by chance?
The old school 1230m pacer a-la William Tainui. I will check with some sources and see if there is any heat to that. If this was true then it wouldn't be unreasonable to think they would want him to run under 2.46 through 1200 which would mean Jakob is looking to run in the low 27's
Understandable that Jakob keeps chasing times, but you’d think at least once before Budapest he might like to try a 1500 against quality competition with no pacers. Is it like a rule that every DL distance race must be paced? It’s sort of boring after a while. Who decides about the pacers? Can the athletes, or an athlete of Jakob’s stature, say no pacers this time out?
would love to see some of these races without pacers, agree.
If Chaptegei and Aregawi make a fast paced race i think Jakob won't be able to follow them. They can ran the 5.000 in 12.35-12.40 while Jakob never ever have run that fast on that distance. Never even closely.
I recommand you to do your homework properly before you come with a postulate as the above.
Jakob hasn´t run a fast (time trial) 5000m since DL Florens 2 years ago. As you possibly know he beat a strong field easily, including the WR holder Josua Cheptegei. Many serious observers (including myself) assume he at least could have run 12:45 that day.
Jakob´s recent 2 mile WB equals to a 12:34 in the 5000m according to World Athletic´s point system.
Aregawi´s recent impressive 5000m time at 12:40 equals a 3000m time at low 7:23 (1282 points) but Jakob ran 7:21 in the last 3000m of his 2 mile race!
And Jakob´s 2 mile time equals a high 7:19 in the 3000m (1304 points).
I don´t disagree that Aregawi (perhaps together with Cheptegei, Kejelcha, Kiplimo and Girma) might be able to run close to 12:35 in the 5000m. But so can Jakob judging from his 2 mile WB as shown above.
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The 5000m final in Budapest:
Nobody can run away from Jakob according to my above argumentation. So he must still be the major favorite since he probably still is the fastest on the last 1000m (and the last 100m).
But nothing is certain and if the above mentioned top runners and other top runners in Ethiopia, Kenya and elsewhere all bring their A game is might be closer than last year in Eugene.
I hope you're right but keep in mind that Jakob will have only 4 days of recovery between the 1500m final and the 5.000m final (23 August-27 August) while the 10.000m runners will have 7 days of recovery (20 Aug - 27 Aug). So they will be more fresh and brillant than Jakob.
Dude, he'll do a session in between the races so he doesnt go stale. How many days do you think it would take for one of the fittest humans ever to recover from the 1500m final?