The '76 final would have involved extra rounds than the 1500m in Christchurch, which had only a heat and a final. If Bayi had been in Montreal and gone out as hard as he did in '74 he would have risked blowing up. He had done so before. However if he didn't push the pace fast enough he wouldn't have taken the sting out of Walker's superior kick. That would have been his dilemma.
I think that by late '75 and '76 Walker was the better runner. His mile record was considerably faster than Bayi's and his 2000m record was astonishing for that era. At 4.51x he took nearly 5 seconds off Jazy's record and it was only just beaten by Cram a decade later. Indeed, Walker ran the last 4 laps of the race in 3.52, which was only a second slower than Bayi's former world mile record. So, by Montreal, Walker had both the endurance and the speed to take Bayi.
If Bayi had been at Montreal I think the final would have been run in around 3.32-33, run to a similar pattern in Christchurch but not quite as quick over the first two laps, with Walker regaining contact with Bayi in the third lap (like Bannister reeling in Landy in Vancouver in '54) and emerging the convincing winner, with Bayi second and Coughlan - another miler - some way back in third. The race would have been too fast for the 800 guys like Van Damme.
But Bayi’s 1500m WR is superior to Walker’s mile WR time (3:49.4)
3:32.16 equates to 3:49.13 using the x 1.08 conversion that is generally used for comparing times between the 2 distances. The fact Bayi had no drafting in that Comm final also makes it even more impressive. Probably would have been a second faster had he a rabbit drafting him directly in front to 1000m, even given same pace distribution. I do agree with you however, that by 76 Walker was the better runner. He was also more suited to 3 rounds in a championship scenario imo. That extra round makes a world of difference in the final.
Conversion tables are only an estimate and approximate. Over that distance it cannot be ascertained to the degree you suggest, of tenths of a second. We see from other record-holders for both distances - like Elliott, Ryun and El Guerrouj, that the differential could be anywhere between 17-19 secs. The fact remains, Walker's mile record was far better than Bayi's best mile time. His 2k record of 4.51 in which he ran the last 1600 in 3.52 is also far better than any performance (in terms of time alone) than anything Bayi ran.
Nor would I agree that Bayi would have run faster in '74 if he had been drafted. He never ran faster than when he led. I do however think Walker would have beaten him at Christchurch if he (and the field) had been prepared to stay closer to Bayi. I don't think Walker at that stage of his career believed he had a wr run in him - he was a comparative novice over the distance - and like the rest of the field probably thought Bayi's pace was suicidal - for him.
But Bayi’s 1500m WR is superior to Walker’s mile WR time (3:49.4)
3:32.16 equates to 3:49.13 using the x 1.08 conversion that is generally used for comparing times between the 2 distances. The fact Bayi had no drafting in that Comm final also makes it even more impressive. Probably would have been a second faster had he a rabbit drafting him directly in front to 1000m, even given same pace distribution. I do agree with you however, that by 76 Walker was the better runner. He was also more suited to 3 rounds in a championship scenario imo. That extra round makes a world of difference in the final.
Conversion tables are only an estimate and approximate. Over that distance it cannot be ascertained to the degree you suggest, of tenths of a second. We see from other record-holders for both distances - like Elliott, Ryun and El Guerrouj, that the differential could be anywhere between 17-19 secs. The fact remains, Walker's mile record was far better than Bayi's best mile time. His 2k record of 4.51 in which he ran the last 1600 in 3.52 is also far better than any performance (in terms of time alone) than anything Bayi ran.
Nor would I agree that Bayi would have run faster in '74 if he had been drafted. He never ran faster than when he led. I do however think Walker would have beaten him at Christchurch if he (and the field) had been prepared to stay closer to Bayi. I don't think Walker at that stage of his career believed he had a wr run in him - he was a comparative novice over the distance - and like the rest of the field probably thought Bayi's pace was suicidal - for him.
Everyone runs faster if they are drafted! It's Physics.
Just because Bayi never ran quicker than when he led, that doesn't prove that he wouldn't have. Bayi was a front runner, which is a chosen tactic that can work if you know that you are that much better than the rest of the field who can draft off you. Had Walker chosen to go with Bayi and draft off him in the 74 Commies then there is a good chance Walker would have prevailed. But he chose not to go with him. Had there been a rabbit in that race who ran just a few tenths faster than Bay to the bell, there is no doubt he would have had more left for the last lap and run a quicker time. You have to remember that in those days it was unheard of for someone to go off that fast in a major champs (unlike in the El G era or today, when there are several who adopt that tactic as it gives them a better chance of winning than 'sit & kick'.
Conversion tables are only an estimate and approximate. Over that distance it cannot be ascertained to the degree you suggest, of tenths of a second. We see from other record-holders for both distances - like Elliott, Ryun and El Guerrouj, that the differential could be anywhere between 17-19 secs. The fact remains, Walker's mile record was far better than Bayi's best mile time. His 2k record of 4.51 in which he ran the last 1600 in 3.52 is also far better than any performance (in terms of time alone) than anything Bayi ran.
Nor would I agree that Bayi would have run faster in '74 if he had been drafted. He never ran faster than when he led. I do however think Walker would have beaten him at Christchurch if he (and the field) had been prepared to stay closer to Bayi. I don't think Walker at that stage of his career believed he had a wr run in him - he was a comparative novice over the distance - and like the rest of the field probably thought Bayi's pace was suicidal - for him.
Everyone runs faster if they are drafted! It's Physics.
Just because Bayi never ran quicker than when he led, that doesn't prove that he wouldn't have. Bayi was a front runner, which is a chosen tactic that can work if you know that you are that much better than the rest of the field who can draft off you. Had Walker chosen to go with Bayi and draft off him in the 74 Commies then there is a good chance Walker would have prevailed. But he chose not to go with him. Had there been a rabbit in that race who ran just a few tenths faster than Bay to the bell, there is no doubt he would have had more left for the last lap and run a quicker time. You have to remember that in those days it was unheard of for someone to go off that fast in a major champs (unlike in the El G era or today, when there are several who adopt that tactic as it gives them a better chance of winning than 'sit & kick'.
All that aside, it was one of the most amazing races I have ever seen. For a runner to go out as hard as he did over the first two laps looked suicidal. The field was slowly drawing him in over the last lap and in the final straight it seemed Walker might take him, but coming from so far back it was a bridge too far. But for not just one but two runners to destroy Ryun's fearsome world mark - we saw that two great 1500m runners had arrived. It should have been a rivalry for the ages but sadly the African boycott and Bayi's health put paid to that. '74 was his single shining moment. In one sense we might say he was an unfulfilled talent.
Everyone runs faster if they are drafted! It's Physics.
Just because Bayi never ran quicker than when he led, that doesn't prove that he wouldn't have. Bayi was a front runner, which is a chosen tactic that can work if you know that you are that much better than the rest of the field who can draft off you. Had Walker chosen to go with Bayi and draft off him in the 74 Commies then there is a good chance Walker would have prevailed. But he chose not to go with him. Had there been a rabbit in that race who ran just a few tenths faster than Bay to the bell, there is no doubt he would have had more left for the last lap and run a quicker time. You have to remember that in those days it was unheard of for someone to go off that fast in a major champs (unlike in the El G era or today, when there are several who adopt that tactic as it gives them a better chance of winning than 'sit & kick'.
All that aside, it was one of the most amazing races I have ever seen. For a runner to go out as hard as he did over the first two laps looked suicidal. The field was slowly drawing him in over the last lap and in the final straight it seemed Walker might take him, but coming from so far back it was a bridge too far. But for not just one but two runners to destroy Ryun's fearsome world mark - we saw that two great 1500m runners had arrived. It should have been a rivalry for the ages but sadly the African boycott and Bayi's health put paid to that. '74 was his single shining moment. In one sense we might say he was an unfulfilled talent.
A silver in the 1980 olympic steeple was also a good moment.