Sports Scientist Ross Tucker breaks downs the Shelby Houlihan case for us

Rojo, you have to acknowledge there is some inconsistency to your hunches/thoughts. With Mo Katir, you strongly hinted that you rooted against him because you think he's a doper.

What is more plausible:
Barely supported athlete (who ran 3:40 at age 20), aged 22, shows some real promise during the Pandemic and runs 3:36.5 and 7:44. With those results, he's able to train at altitude where the Ingebridsten camp does, get a coach, put on the Asics supershoes and he has a huge age 23 season with some monster marks, but ultimately falls well short of an Olympic medal.

Athlete in her 4th pro season, age 25, after a high-profile college/HS career with strong resources throughout suddleny morphs from a US-level 1500 runner and a good enough to make the team at her better event (the 5K) morphs to a DL-winning one (3:57 with monster kick) at the 1500, and drops huge times including 14:23 without the superspikes. Chalks it up to slightly higher mileage (but she was running 60+ as a senior in college) and better nutrition (in retrospect funny).

Yes, I know you'll want to compare this to Fisher/Cranny, both of whom were HS phenoms at the 1500/mile (unlike Houlihan), and were purposely undertrained at Stanford. They also now are 5,000/10,000 runners, and while Fisher could * maybe * run 3:33-3:34 and Cranny has run 4:02, I don't see the Shelby-type massive drop at 1,500 which was honestly the most unusual part about her progression.

I could toss Josette Norris into this as well.The reality is few runners make huge jumps in the 1500 meters in their mid-20s and later. It is a large red flag unless there is a huge injury history. It's not a late-blooming event.

LOL - that's exactly what I said about Houlihan since her first AR. And guess what?
My hunch was subsequently confirmed by a drug bust.

Don't forget Karissa Schweizer running that insane 14:26 5K

In a long deleted thread, rojo tried to compare the Shelby bust to George Floyd’s death. That was probably the site’s nadir..

Yes, but even Schweizer ran 4:06 in a win/8:41i/15:02 at age 22 right after graduating college in regular spikes before even joining Bowerman. Huge blue-chipper. Her story is more plausible than Shelby's.

Here's the deal from the brosjo perspective: Shelby is the "right" color - innocent, Paula is the "right" color - innocent, all Africans and African Americans are not the "right" color - guilty.

Could Rojo explain what he means by "an athlete like Shelby"? How is she different?

Sorry, man, there is no equivalence between Shelby and Radcliffe. Shelby is a proven doper, the case against Radcliffe is that she ran one race super fast and a bunch of others very fast. She raced her marathons in the post-EPO era and never tested positive. You don't get to equate the two even if you have your suspicions about Radcliffe

I thought that q&a piece was really good. I’m reading opinions on here that interpreted it as the same question over and over, but I disagree. The length and detail tucker addresses this topic in should prove to any reasonable person that Shelby is deserving of the four year ban. My only disagreement with tucker is that I have no sympathy that she is missing two Olympic cycles. Make it life as far as I’m concerned.

The reason the questions read as pro Shelby is because that’s how you do a Q&A like this! This structure ensures Tucker gets an opportunity to refute every possible counter argument.

From the brosjo' mind, Paula and Shelby are equally innocent and Shelby is by no means a "proven doper." Paula is the most outrageously blatant doping cheater in the history of all sports, yet she will always remain a brojo darling.

ofa lon teh

It’s not as simple as this but Shelby’s race plays a factor. whiteness helps with bias, and it’s a part of the story along with accessibility, relatability, and likability. before this happened people felt like Shelby could be their friend, their daughter, or them. So it hit them hard that she could be a cheat because it meant people close to them could be too, so they were far more compassionate than they’d ever be if it were someone non white, non American, or someone who was cold or abrasive. Race is a big part of this equation but not the whole thing.

When you look at the case and not at Shelby, there’s just no way you can conclude she didn’t cheat. Even the whole mistaken supplement story reeks of bias. Would you believe it if this were a Kenyan athlete and people were saying it was just a mistake?

Dude, read the room. She is guilty as all getout!
FFS - enough already!!!!

In the age of extremes there are no shades of gray. sometimes people are just weak or selfish or they lie, without being a “psychopath” or a “narcissist” . I think Shelby intentionally doped, and it’s perfectly possible she cheated without having a personality disorder. I think she probably felt a little entitled, and a little scared of losing her sponsorship if she didn’t perform well. I think she made excuses to herself about how “everyone dopes anyway” and probably felt alright with it because she wasn’t doing the heavy stuff like EPO. It was a bad thing to do, and she is selfish and weak for doing it but it doesn’t make her a psychopath.

She probably is at least a borderline psychopath and narcissist, but it probably also is mandatory for all nike athletes to participate in their doping program.

Yeah, likely above average narcissism. Few pro athletes lack it.