Official 2014 Boston Marathon Race Discussion Thread

rojo · 2014-04-21T07:59:52-04:00

It's Patriots Day in Boston and race day is upon us. It should be thrilling. A few comments. We asked our wind expert - John Kellogg (JK) - to comment on the weather. Yesterday morning, when the wind forecast was for a SSW of 7-8 mph, we asked JK how that would impact the race. The course runs mainly West to East but it does go slightly from the south to the North as shown here: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_YQsV8uA1vvU/S9G7NqwAawI/AAAAAAAAEJw/702xB5sGJCw/s320/boston-CourseMap.gif Here is what JK wrote: [quote][b]JK wrote:[/b] There should be a tailwind component of 4-6 mph for the race, which in theory would make the times about 55 to 85 seconds faster than they would be if there was no wind. A little bit about wind readings: Unless a weather report specifically indicates the readings are those at ground level, wind speeds can be assumed to be taken 10 meters above ground in open areas (e.g., airports), and the wind speed that runners experience at chest/head level usually ranges from 40% to 80% of the reported speed, depending on surrounding objects (open areas vs. buildings, trees, etc.) and elevation (low sections of road vs. hilltops or overpasses). That's why you'll often see wind gauge readings of 4 mps (about 9 mph) at track meets when current weather reports show a 20 mph wind and it sure feels like it's a lot stronger than you'd expect 9 mph to feel. The wind gauge is actually closer to the ground than the heads and chests of the athletes, so runners are typically experiencing abut 12 mph of wind on a 20 mph wind day (unless the race is in an extremely flat, wide-open area like a prairie or a coastline, in which case the chest-level wind speed could be up to 80% of the reported speed). But for practical purposes, we can usually just use the reported wind speed to make time comparisons against calm conditions. Those comparisons can never be perfect because of the quirky nature of wind and the effects of terrain and surrounding objects. The real world isn't a wind tunnel, so take any prediction about the time benefit of a tailwind as a ballpark estimate.[/quote] The forecast has changed since he wrote that. It's expected to be more of a southerly wind. Last night, it was supposed to be out of the South but now still says SSW and then S. If it was straight out of the South, JK said on the phone it would probably help around 30 seconds versus there being now wind. In summary, the conditions are there for a fast day if the runner's decide to run fast. Temps will be in the 50s and sunny. A little warmer than ideal but a perfect day all told when considering what the spectators want. A few more intersting tidbits that I got from the press conference on Friday but haven't shared yet. I talked to top Ethiopian men's entrants in defending champ Desisa as well as 2:05:27 man Regassa who trains with Desisa. Both said they were in shape, but when I asked Regassa who was in better shape, he didn't hesitate at all. He pointed to Desisa. So the scuttlebutt is he's very much ready to defend. I also talked to Kenya's Kimetto who indicated he was happy with his fitness as well. In terms of getting seeing an American winner in Boston, here's one interesting scenario to consider down the road. Maybe the USA's best bet it to get a citizenship change. I asked LetsRun.com visitor Worku Beyi - the husband and coach of Deba - the Ethiopian woman who lives in the bronx - if they might become US citizens since they live here. He said, "Yes," and revealed he is actually getting his citizenship in October. I then asked if this meant Deba would run for the US in 2016. He thought she'd have to wait 5 years for citizenship (and said she was hoping to get a green card) but I told him I thought cirizenship could be expedited (wasn't it for Khanouchi). As for Desisa, he was outfitted in some sweet red, whie and blue adidas gear. I told him that looked like an American outfit and he said he'd love to get an American passport. Deba is obviously a real candidate. Desisa's mark seemed more like just a friendly statement. In the press room, they hopefully will have a split update each and every mile - much more than what you can get via tracking. I'll try to update them as I get them (and am actually going to be sending them via text to a top coach who asked for my help. If that American wins with a late surge, of course, we will be taking credit for it). I hope everyone enjoys the race - it should be awesome. In case you aren't up to date.

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12 years ago 04/21/2014 6:17pm EDT

re: apollo creed

I really feel for Flanagan. After all, she grew up lest than 25 miles away from the marathon course finish; her parents were marathoners; she felt chuch and long run were everyone's Sunday; she was a H.S. athlete that always had Patriot's Day off from school and may have gone to watch the race. She ran in 2013 and vowed to do better in 2014 - she did better, much better with a great PR.

She had all these things on her shoulders and wanted to win in the worst way. Unfortunately, she bumped into the best woman in the world, who was also ready to set records. Real tough situation for Flanagan. Great PR and she will be back another day to run faster. There will be another American women champ soon.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 6:57pm EDT

re: rojo

I say congrats to Ryan Hall for toughing it out and finishing the race. The easy thing would have been to step off the course.

It was not a great race for Ryan to say the least, but man it showed a lot of heart to run the whole race. A classy move. My hat is off to you Ryan. You are a total bad ass.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 7:14pm EDT

re: V1per41

V1per41 wrote:
Did anyone notice that Joan Samuelson, Female winner in 1979 & 1983, ran a 2:52:11 at age 56. Good for an age grade of 100.64%

Faster than the WR for W55. (Rae Baymiller 2:52:14, 1998 Chicago.)

Christine Kennedy was right behind with 2:57:44. At age 59, I think she is the oldest woman ever to run a sub-3.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 7:22pm EDT

re: akaaaaaaaaaa

akaaaaaaaaaa wrote:
Recognizer of Brilliance? wrote:Nope. Meb came in 4th at the 2012 Olympics for crying out loud. There is no chance that these guys would just write him off. None.
So you think it's more likely that there was a massive bribery conspiracy where a dozen top runners and their agents were bribed to throw the race instead of the top runners underestimating a 38-year old with the 15th slowest PR in the field who last ran a 2:23 marathon?

I do like your use of the word "massive". Makes your argument much more convincing.

In fact I cannot be sure of the truth. Neither can you. The race did look incredibly suspicious the way it played out. And the timing for this was absolutely perfect. If there was a conspiracy it would have been a small one - quite easy to hide. And with quite a substantial upside for the media and corresponding ad dollars.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 7:32pm EDT

re: Recognizer of Brilliance?

Seriously, I hope you are realizing what a huge fvcking idiot and dooooshbag you look like. No one who watched that race play out would think of the flat out stupid things you did. I really hope you are on drugs, because that is the only valid excuse for your posts.

Recognizer of Brilliance? wrote:
akaaaaaaaaaa wrote:
So you think it's more likely that there was a massive bribery conspiracy where a dozen top runners and their agents were bribed to throw the race instead of the top runners underestimating a 38-year old with the 15th slowest PR in the field who last ran a 2:23 marathon?
I do like your use of the word "massive". Makes your argument much more convincing.
In fact I cannot be sure of the truth. Neither can you. The race did look incredibly suspicious the way it played out. And the timing for this was absolutely perfect. If there was a conspiracy it would have been a small one - quite easy to hide. And with quite a substantial upside for the media and corresponding ad dollars.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 8:53pm EDT

re: Women's rights

Ugh, so insufferable. Someone gag her with an Oiselle singlet.

Kara tweeted this an hour ago:

So excited for meb, but just a quick correction. The last American winner was not Greg Meyer in 1983, it was Lisa Rainsberger in 1985.

I really hope she was tweeting from a kitchen.

12 years ago 04/22/2014 1:46am EDT

re: Recognizer of Brilliance?

Recognizer of Brilliance? wrote:
Nope. Meb came in 4th at the 2012 Olympics for crying out loud. There is no chance that these guys would just write him off. None.

This. And he is still strong and absolutely focussed. Great, great performance.

On the other hand: is it unfair to think that sympathy and pity had a say in the movie script of the day, considering all circumstances?

12 years ago 04/22/2014 7:06am EDT

re: Live not on eviL

Live not on eviL wrote:
jjjjjjjjj wrote:
This was exactly the kind of race where we would pick a healthy Meb to go for the win, out slow, 1:04:21/50, the win in 2:08/9, a big-time, hugely meaningful occasion (the anniversary of the bombing in this case, the Olympics in two other cases), and we know that he goes for the win whenever he has a shot at it, multiple times he tried to do that in NYC before winning it. Most important, he is tough as nails and does not drop off at a pace like this. He always overperforms. He does not have a shot in a 2:05 (nor obviously, 2:03) race, but this is his wheelhouse. He came up huge and for all of you anti-immigrant and racist types, he stepped up when there was an opportunity after the white guys never could. Think about it. Both Ritz and Hall could absolutely have run 2:08:37 and stolen one as well but they have never had the will to dominate, the gutsiness to break away like this. Of course, they've both had injury issues for years but the opportunity to do this has been there and why is it Meb's fault if he grabs it.
A great American who makes us proud and one of the nicest guys you will find anywhere. After Gasparilla this year he was out hanging out with the slower finishers and he will go on easy training runs with much slower guys that he just happens to meet on the way frequently. And look at what he did in running with Michael Cassidy at NYC on a day he just did not have it last year.
Spot on about Meb's gutsiness etc but you don't seem to realize how slow a course Boston is, absent a 30 mph tailwind. There has only been one sub-2:07 ever at Boston outside of that crazy 2011 race. Anyone who doesn't think Meb could go 2:05 on a time trial course right now is delusional.

It was a fast day and not just for Meb.

Jeptoo sub 2:19.

Sharlane went from 2:25 to 2:22 (and almost 2:21).

Desi ran her fastest time outside that wind aided 2011 race.

I'm thinking that Meb could run 2:08 low on a time trail course and Jeptoo could run 2:18 (but not 2:15).

12 years ago 04/22/2014 9:52am EDT

re: Recognizer of Brilliance?

Recognizer of Brilliance? wrote:
Not too bright, are you?
...this happens to be the anniversary of the Boston bombings. What a coincidence.

Look up "anniversary," you laughingstock of an Internet screechbag. The bombings took place on 4/15/2013. Yesterday was April 21nd.

12 years ago 04/22/2014 11:08pm EDT

re: Where did they go?

Where did they go? wrote:
akaaaaaaaaaa wrote:
Of course it makes sense. The rest of the lead pack underestimated an old guy whose with a slower PR who last finished the NYCM in 2:23. You don't chase a recent 2:23 guy and they figured Meb would come back to them. If Kimetto or Deisisa had gone, the other top guys would would have gone with them. They didn't give Meb the respect he deserved and it cost the.
This would make sense if Meb picked up the pace or put in a surge. The point being made is that Meb was running a steady effort and the pack of elites decided to slow down before halfway while running a pace that the majority of them should have been able to hold for several more miles.

Actually, Meb did surge from 20k to 30k.

Meb Chebet

5k 15:09 15:11

10k 15:20 15:20

15k 15:18 15:27

20k 15:18 15:40

25k 14:55 15:20

30k 15:10 15:33

35k 15:27 14:57

40k 15:12 14:29

42.2k 6:48 6:51

Chebet started cranking after 30k, but at that point he was 81 seconds behind Meb, and trying to make up time over heartbreak hill. It looked to me as if that little dip and rise through the underpass with 1000m to go did Chebet in.

I'm not convinced that the rest of the pack underrated Mab as much as others think. Most of the major marathons now unfold like track races; everyone rolls along until 30k or so, then someone starts to hammer and the race is on, not unlike a track race. So the pack collectively figured that they would run Meb down.

But Boston is different, and Meb ran a great race for that course. It was as if he asked himself WWBD, or maybe he actually asked Bill.

12 years ago 04/26/2014 4:48pm EDT

re: rojo

Thank you so much for the coverage of the Boston Marathon. Even the trolls and the big heads didn't spoil it.

It was great to read the build up, the live message thread and the post-race analysis. Props (whatever that means) to Shalane and Meb and you two.

I am British, live in England and haven't been to Boston since I ran there about 30 years ago and I really felt I was there on Monday.

Keep up the good work!

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