I'm 50-50 on whether they really should barely be favorites or if, they combined (mostly Laros, maybe 60-40) should be heavy favorites. With Phanuel fading as he went into championship season and Hocker and Nuguse not in the race, who is a legitimate, credible threat to Laros and Kerr?
Laros has not lost at 1500 or mile all season, and ran a 3:28.8 equivalent at Pre. He's young but hasn't been beatable this year.
Kerr has only lost twice this year at 1500/mile, and Laros has never beaten him (albeit they haven't raced this year). His build has been slightly worse than last year, but better than any other year, including his 2023 gold year. Once was his debut many moons ago, and once to Phanuel in London. As I recall, they both made their move at the same time but Phanuel passed on the inside and Kerr on the outside and that was most of the difference. Kerr was clearly trying to win but held his form through the line in 3:29. Given his track record of peaking when it matters, that's a solid lead in for the most accomplished and consistent 1500/mile athlete of the last 4-5 years.
Could win on a magical day: Wightman (can lightning strike twice/will the race be slow enough?), Jonah Koech (I think his beginner's luck is about to run out based on that semi, but I'm wrong often -- didn't think he would beat Hocker, Nuguse, and Kessler at USAs)
Could sneak onto the podium, but won't win: Both Cheruiyots, Nader, Gourley
Hanging on for dear life: Pihlstrom, Coscoran, Ben, Farken, Tsh~!te, Riva