Because he has a fairly extensive history on this very thread of spouting the same thing and being proven terribly wrong, time and time again.
Well, you, Sally and agip also have extensive histories of spouting the same thing over the life of the thread. The advantage you have is that the bull case is always the more likely outcome. Until it’s not.
It fascinates me to see evidently seasoned investors ignore the possibility of a very significant correction or crash. But I can’t see getting myself worked up about that; your opinions and estimation of the odds of various investing outcomes don’t offend me. I just find them interesting, and something to chew on.
I was looking at a chart on Morningstar for VADAX, Invesco's equal weighted S&P 500 index mutual fund's total return since the end of 1987. I compared it to VFINX, Vanguard's S&P 500 Index fund's total return. In August 2000, VFINX was 53.65% higher than VADAX. Currently, VFINX is 23.15% higher. They usually track each other closely with VADAX sometimes running higher ( GFC to Covid ).
Well, you, Sally and agip also have extensive histories of spouting the same thing over the life of the thread. The advantage you have is that the bull case is always the more likely outcome. Until it’s not.
It fascinates me to see evidently seasoned investors ignore the possibility of a very significant correction or crash. But I can’t see getting myself worked up about that; your opinions and estimation of the odds of various investing outcomes don’t offend me. I just find them interesting, and something to chew on.
I was looking at a chart on Morningstar for VADAX, Invesco's equal weighted S&P 500 index mutual fund's total return since the end of 1987. I compared it to VFINX, Vanguard's S&P 500 Index fund's total return. In August 2000, VFINX was 53.65% higher than VADAX. Currently, VFINX is 23.15% higher. They usually track each other closely with VADAX sometimes running higher ( GFC to Covid ).
When you talk about a "very significant correction or crash" - are you meaning 30% or more? I think if it falls 30%, it falls 30%. Won't get too worked up about that. I also think the market will bounce back fairly quickly from that. More than 30% ... that might a bit more troublesome. I had friends who worked at Enron and lost everything. NVDA fell quite a bit during Covid and look where it is now.
"Big Tech firms’ increasing investments in artificial intelligence show that even if the stock market is in a bubble, equities still have room to run higher before it bursts. Last week, Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Meta (META) hiked their capital expenditure forecasts for their 2025 fiscal years, while Microsoft (MSFT) reported higher-than-expected spending for the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year. “We're still in such a massive growth phase that the bubble still has a good ways to go before we're at risk of the massive correction,” said Futurum Group analyst David Nicholson. Amazon said it expects to see its full-year capex hit $125 billion, up from its previous outlook of $118.5 billion. Alphabet lifted its guidance for expenditures for the third straight quarter to $92 billion at the midpoint from $85 billion. Meta also upped its capex forecast range for the third time this year to $71 billion at the midpoint from $69 billion. Meanwhile, Microsoft reported capital expenditures of roughly $35 billion for its fiscal first quarter, ahead of the $30 billion expected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg. The company said its spending will rise at a faster pace in the 2026 fiscal year, which ends in June, than it did in 2025."
The DGTD thread started August 27, 2013 my first post on this thread was March 2015. I doubt you will find anything that reads do not buy stocks. My very first post was about the value of cash in a portfolio, basic portfolio construction. Interesting now measured with Buffett’s record cash holdings. You mostly talk about the NASDAQ stocks.
The OP thought the market would go down. His nemesis hated him for his Israel/Palestine views. One or the other thought I was he, stole my handle at one point, harassed me here and on other threads.
There is no missed opportunity. You buy things you like. My slant to the thread is to present my valuation view of markets. Clearly I am not moved by many of the opinions here, and you of mine.
Igy
Igy, I will grant you that you do not advocate for being fully out of the market, and when asked specifically, you generally advise for at least a small percentage invested. Frankly, I wouldn't care if you advised for being fully out, but that is neither here nor there.
That said, you have in general made the case on numerous occassions to reconsider investing in certain stocks/ETFs/cryptocurrencies and you go so far as to say, in some of these instances, that you will even lose money.
I started this line of discussion by bringing a few of those to light, and I simply asked how your projections worked out. I don't think you specifically addressed any of these. And I brought this up because your projections that you continue to make were the same ones you made 7 and 8 years ago, and ever since. So I thought a little track record insights might be helpful and enlightening.
From what I see, with the advantage of hindsight, the subsequent performance of the investments is very enlightening.
The DGTD thread started August 27, 2013 my first post on this thread was March 2015. I doubt you will find anything that reads do not buy stocks. My very first post was about the value of cash in a portfolio, basic portfolio construction. Interesting now measured with Buffett’s record cash holdings. You mostly talk about the NASDAQ stocks.
The OP thought the market would go down. His nemesis hated him for his Israel/Palestine views. One or the other thought I was he, stole my handle at one point, harassed me here and on other threads.
There is no missed opportunity. You buy things you like. My slant to the thread is to present my valuation view of markets. Clearly I am not moved by many of the opinions here, and you of mine.
Igy
Igy, I will grant you that you do not advocate for being fully out of the market, and when asked specifically, you generally advise for at least a small percentage invested. Frankly, I wouldn't care if you advised for being fully out, but that is neither here nor there.
That said, you have in general made the case on numerous occassions to reconsider investing in certain stocks/ETFs/cryptocurrencies and you go so far as to say, in some of these instances, that you will even lose money.
I started this line of discussion by bringing a few of those to light, and I simply asked how your projections worked out. I don't think you specifically addressed any of these. And I brought this up because your projections that you continue to make were the same ones you made 7 and 8 years ago, and ever since. So I thought a little track record insights might be helpful and enlightening.
From what I see, with the advantage of hindsight, the subsequent performance of the investments is very enlightening.
“The Nasdaq has only hit a new all-time high with declining issues outnumbering advances by more than 2 to 1 twice in its 54-year history. The only other time this occurred was on November 18, 2021 – one day before the Index peaked. The bear market that followed saw the Nasdaq… pic.twitter.com/ui3Dyl6ElN