I wrote a post but then got permanently (temporarily) banned, I think due to me mentioning a certain asset class that ends in "coin." I think? Apparently if we say that word on here we get banned.
Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point? Not me. The market is at all time highs and so is gold. Meanwhile even as someone who makes reasonable okay money, I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten... There are people out there making 18-25 dollars per hour. How are these people even surviving? I can't imagine this can continue a whole lot longer.
“Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point?”
I believe there are a few genuine skeptics. The general investing public is on autopilot. Sure, they may pay lip service to the bubble narrative, but do nothing to mitigate the risk.
The market tanked 4 or 5 years ago during Covid and look at how quickly it rebounded. I think even if the market dropped 30 to 40% you would have many buying up shares to take advantage of the low prices. The market just seems very resilient these days.
The S&P500 Total Return Index went nowhere for almost 2 years ( 1/03/2022 to mid December 2023) with a greater than 25% draw down. The same for the NASDAQ 100 ( QQQ ) except it had a 35% draw down!
The market tanked 4 or 5 years ago during Covid and look at how quickly it rebounded. I think even if the market dropped 30 to 40% you would have many buying up shares to take advantage of the low prices. The market just seems very resilient these days.
The S&P500 Total Return Index went nowhere for almost 2 years ( 1/03/2022 to mid December 2023) with a greater than 25% draw down. The same for the NASDAQ 100 ( QQQ ) except it had a 35% draw down!
FOMO vs. risk adversity.
I don't really track these things too closely, but is it largely a matter of lack of viable alternative investment vehicles now driving investors to the stock market?
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
versus, verses, vs. - who can keep this stuff straight?!
Since we're talking prices and Costco, last June we had friends from the NE visiting and I purchased Prime boneless ribeyes there for $14.99 a lb. That Oct the price went up to $17.99 a lb, but $2 less than HEB. When we were back in NJ, I purchased some for Father's Day and early Aug when my cousin and his wife visited from Nevada. The cost at Costco was $19.99 a lb and the local grocery stores were $25 or higher. This Oct Costco is now $27.99 a lb, $2 more than HEB! I actually bought 2 tomahawks, $23.99 a lb and one boneless at HEB. You only turn 75 once.
Told my wife if beef prices stay elevated, instead of prime rib roast I'll do a pork roast instead for Xmas.
I started seeing the cost to fill up the tank of the rental car with gas in Iceland and I started suspecting some kind of conversion rate rip-off that you hear about, but that wasn't the case. It was just really expensive, like the meals.
A friend is planning to run a half marathon in Iceland next year. When she went to pay her registration fee she saw a number in Kroners and worked it quickly to be about $1000 US. She was shocked at the cost and thought about backing out but her sister reminded her the trip was already paid for, and she’d been making a big deal of this destination race. So she decided damn with the torpedoes she’d pay the damn fee and run the damn race anyway. Then she happened to mention to a Norwegian friend the outrageous cost and politely inquired what kind of Kroners she’d used to convert the cost. It turns out the google default is Norwegian kroners, which are worth more than 10 times an Icelandic kroner. Turns out the race costs less than $100 US. Which is a huge bargain considering she was willing to pay a grand. 😀
“Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point?”
I believe there are a few genuine skeptics. The general investing public is on autopilot. Sure, they may pay lip service to the bubble narrative, but do nothing to mitigate the risk.
The market tanked 4 or 5 years ago during Covid and look at how quickly it rebounded. I think even if the market dropped 30 to 40% you would have many buying up shares to take advantage of the low prices. The market just seems very resilient these days.
I have noticed and inferred this also. Look at the dip we had this spring from Trump's tariffs. It was a blip for all tents and porpoises. If you weren't paying attention, you missed it. I think we will see a drawdown of 20% or more in the next 9 months, but I don't think it will last. We would have to have some sort of real crisis for true capitulation, something where lots of people are losing their jobs, etc.
I started seeing the cost to fill up the tank of the rental car with gas in Iceland and I started suspecting some kind of conversion rate rip-off that you hear about, but that wasn't the case. It was just really expensive, like the meals.
A friend is planning to run a half marathon in Iceland next year. When she went to pay her registration fee she saw a number in Kroners and worked it quickly to be about $1000 US. She was shocked at the cost and thought about backing out but her sister reminded her the trip was already paid for, and she’d been making a big deal of this destination race. So she decided damn with the torpedoes she’d pay the damn fee and run the damn race anyway. Then she happened to mention to a Norwegian friend the outrageous cost and politely inquired what kind of Kroners she’d used to convert the cost. It turns out the google default is Norwegian kroners, which are worth more than 10 times an Icelandic kroner. Turns out the race costs less than $100 US. Which is a huge bargain considering she was willing to pay a grand. 😀
Nice story. A member of my running club ran a marathon last year, and she said it was in the upper NE section somewhere, if I recollect correctly.
She said it was good.
What i mostly remember, though, was how nice the people were. The airlines lost her luggage including race attire and running shoes, but people there lent her stuff in order to do the race. Unbelievable!
The people we met were really nice, but I never got a sense there were a whole lot of people, besides all the tourists.