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no longer banned in the loon star state gente wrote:
Also, a blast from the past. Was this the last time you were in NYC?
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Domestic large money managers are invariably benchmarked to the S&P 500. Even though the distortion of Mag 7 weightings forces those looking to beat the index to allocate percentages even higher.
The ultimate humble-brag for investors is "I beat the market." However, consistently outperforming the market’s average 10% yearly return is difficult. Even the best fund managers struggle to outperform the S&P 500 in consecutive years. According to SPIVA Scorecards, 89.5% of funds underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 10 years.1
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CG 3 wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
There is a lot to digest here. Like about enough to easily fill a book, which leads me to my first suggestion, and that is to read some books on investing. They are actually fairly interesting and you might enjoy them. I did read a few such as those written by Peter Lynch.
I think that you may be right and the number who beat the market even over the long terms is quite low, and that is because the vast majority of people don't have the time or focus to do it intelligently.
With all that said, jumping to my advice, it is that the best thing is this - start small, learn what works for you, and adjust accordingly.
As for actively managed funds not often beating the market, you have to understand the folly of comparing an individual investor's strategy and performance against that of an institutional investor. They are massively different. An individucal investor has so many advantages over institutional investors, it's like apples and oranges.
Lastly, I would highly encourage an individual investor to not put the bulk of their finances at risk. Retirement funds, emergency money, etc. are probably not something I would put at much risk.
Also, I have posted here a few years ago about my experiences in the dot.com days and described how the common talk on the street and in the gym was how so-and-so grabbed a pile of well-timed tech stock and doesn't have to work anymore. Saw some of those folks work out well and some that it came back to bite them.
Hope that helps.
Excellent article, btw, that those in our household came across yesterday that discusses investing and how to go about it. It might be behind a paywall but if you don't have a NY Times subscription, it may be worth searching out somehow:
I have read around 20 different books on either investing specifically or personal finance or economics. I feel I understand this stuff decently well, and my returns suggest that also since I have outperformed basically every actively managed fund out there over the last five years as well as beat the market every year as well. I don't know everything and especially don't know what it's like to work at a financial institution doing this since I'm just some quantitative scientist guy who has made investing a major hobby over the last 11 years. I will say, however, if things keep going how they have been, I will be able to retire by about age 41, if I want to. I don't want to, so I will keep working, but there aren't many people who could do that through their own work and strategizing.
To keep the dialogue going and to also learn more, if individual investors have such enormous advantages over institutional investors, why wouldn't institutional investors just try to be more like individual investors? I know that's a little bit of a silly question, but I hope you can understand the point of the question. If I'm returning an average of 18% per year, what's stopping me from getting 10 of my well to do friends giving me their money to manage and taking 1% of the returns? I'm still beating the market by a huge amount.
Someone else mentioned my 70% annual return in 2020. This is off of memory and is very likely not exact, but it was around there for my brokerage account. I don't touch my retirement account, so it performed the same as the market did that year. Since then I have outperformed the market by about 7-8% each year, on average. I am much better now than I was only a few years ago though, so I expect that figure to be higher moving forward. Given the US and World economy and society is kind of dancing on the precipice of collapse right now, however, I'm very aware anything could happen.
I lot of what you say is just not happening. Beating the market every year by 7 to 8% - just not happening. Getting a 70% return in 2020 - just not happening.
Put your portfolio here and we can ascertain if you actually did beat the market by 70% in 2020. You are sounding quite a bit like the highly esteemed Flagpole.
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no longer banned in the loon star state gente wrote:
no longer banned in the loon star state gente wrote:
Also, a blast from the past. Was this the last time you were in NYC?
Thanks Gente. Here is a picture of our team: Head Coach Ralph Tate, Larry Rose (first Oklahoma born sub-4:00 miler), Charlie Boatright (11th and All American next year), George Stewart (our #1, just missed All American), me, Peter Kaal (South African, 2nd AAU mile that summer), Tom Von Ruden (9th 1968 Olympic 1500m, indoor world record 1,000 yard, GA, and our coach). We raced in Williamsburg, Va. Our team was 14th that year, 7th in 1973 my senior year, and 5th the year after I graduated. I spent a lot of time NYC, sales training at Dean Witter for three weeks, became MSDW while I was there. Multiple meetings there. I would send a photo of the wife and I outside of the Bull and Bear Bar, but if she knew I would be toast. That was about 2016.
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Gente, I am also very close to my OSU teammates. Tom Von Ruden recruited me, because they needed a fifth man. Tom left winter of 1972 to do an Olympic Trials build-up and coach at USC. We had no distance coach there my last year and a half. But we had a good group that trained well together. We still communicate in some form weekly. In contrast to the threads that rag on current Coach Dave Smith, he is very personable and gets the alumni together yearly.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Gente, I am also very close to my OSU teammates. Tom Von Ruden recruited me, because they needed a fifth man. Tom left winter of 1972 to do an Olympic Trials build-up and coach at USC. We had no distance coach there my last year and a half. But we had a good group that trained well together. We still communicate in some form weekly. In contrast to the threads that rag on current Coach Dave Smith, he is very personable and gets the alumni together yearly.
I remember Von Ruden. I seem to recall reading once he was an unofficial rabbit for a Jim Ryun mile world record.
Did you graduate high school in 69? You're a couple of weeks older than me, but I graduated in 68. I barely made the cut off to start school in NJ. They changed it 2 years later to Oct 1.
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no longer banned in the loon star state gente wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Gente, I am also very close to my OSU teammates. Tom Von Ruden recruited me, because they needed a fifth man. Tom left winter of 1972 to do an Olympic Trials build-up and coach at USC. We had no distance coach there my last year and a half. But we had a good group that trained well together. We still communicate in some form weekly. In contrast to the threads that rag on current Coach Dave Smith, he is very personable and gets the alumni together yearly.
I remember Von Ruden. I seem to recall reading once he was an unofficial rabbit for a Jim Ryun mile world record.
Did you graduate high school in 69? You're a couple of weeks older than me, but I graduated in 68. I barely made the cut off to start school in NJ. They changed it 2 years later to Oct 1.
I graduated 1968, started running with Mihaly Igloi in summer 1967. I met Tom von Ruden the next year when he was with the Army Team and training with Igloi. Tom was good friends with Jim Ryun, we warmed up with him before a cross country dual meet cross country meet at KU 1970, and again before the Kansa Relays mile in 1971.
Funny story Mike Manke, a freshman, made note of Ryun’s head roll after the warm-up. Tom remarked something to the effect “he looks pretty darn good when he’s passing you with a 54 last lap.”
Tom passed away several years ago. I went back for a reunion and he along with three of his teammates were into the OSU Athletic of Fame for World Record 2 Mile Relay. Tom graduated from Notus High School, Idaho. Class of less than two dozen. I stopped by the high school office, and no one knew who he was. I mailed them quite a bit.
Tom was big on a Sunday morning long run. We worked up to 16 miles, more continuous running than I was used to. He would also do a “pasture run.” Here you ran a direction, over barbed wire fences, ponds, or wind breaks. You came back dirty and scratched up. Tom was a character.
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Sally Vix wrote:
CG 3 wrote:
I have read around 20 different books on either investing specifically or personal finance or economics. I feel I understand this stuff decently well, and my returns suggest that also since I have outperformed basically every actively managed fund out there over the last five years as well as beat the market every year as well. I don't know everything and especially don't know what it's like to work at a financial institution doing this since I'm just some quantitative scientist guy who has made investing a major hobby over the last 11 years. I will say, however, if things keep going how they have been, I will be able to retire by about age 41, if I want to. I don't want to, so I will keep working, but there aren't many people who could do that through their own work and strategizing.
To keep the dialogue going and to also learn more, if individual investors have such enormous advantages over institutional investors, why wouldn't institutional investors just try to be more like individual investors? I know that's a little bit of a silly question, but I hope you can understand the point of the question. If I'm returning an average of 18% per year, what's stopping me from getting 10 of my well to do friends giving me their money to manage and taking 1% of the returns? I'm still beating the market by a huge amount.
Someone else mentioned my 70% annual return in 2020. This is off of memory and is very likely not exact, but it was around there for my brokerage account. I don't touch my retirement account, so it performed the same as the market did that year. Since then I have outperformed the market by about 7-8% each year, on average. I am much better now than I was only a few years ago though, so I expect that figure to be higher moving forward. Given the US and World economy and society is kind of dancing on the precipice of collapse right now, however, I'm very aware anything could happen.
I lot of what you say is just not happening. Beating the market every year by 7 to 8% - just not happening. Getting a 70% return in 2020 - just not happening.
Put your portfolio here and we can ascertain if you actually did beat the market by 70% in 2020. You are sounding quite a bit like the highly esteemed Flagpole.
I did not beat the market by 70% in 2020. My annual return that year was about 70%. And yes, that is a real figure. I beat by the market by about 11% last year, and I am currently beating the market by about 7% over the last 12 months as I type this. It would be higher, but I made some moves that were overly conservative.
I am very aware of how farfetched this all sounds... I started typing out a lot more, but I have decided I don't really want to share too much about myself here. I am totally fine with you not believing me and know that I would not believe some random poster on the internet either.
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CG 2 wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I lot of what you say is just not happening. Beating the market every year by 7 to 8% - just not happening. Getting a 70% return in 2020 - just not happening.
Put your portfolio here and we can ascertain if you actually did beat the market by 70% in 2020. You are sounding quite a bit like the highly esteemed Flagpole.
I did not beat the market by 70% in 2020. My annual return that year was about 70%. And yes, that is a real figure. I beat by the market by about 11% last year, and I am currently beating the market by about 7% over the last 12 months as I type this. It would be higher, but I made some moves that were overly conservative.
I am very aware of how farfetched this all sounds... I started typing out a lot more, but I have decided I don't really want to share too much about myself here. I am totally fine with you not believing me and know that I would not believe some random poster on the internet either.
That doesn't surprise me too much, though that one year with 70% ROI is big.
And I say that because, if i remember correctly, you've been in the market a relatively short amount of time and the recent years have been pretty good.
Many aggressive portfolios tend to outperform the market in the up years but perform much much worse in the down ones.
So, with that in mind, how did you do in 2022 when the SNP lost 13%?
I would not be surprised if you lost more than that, and therein gave back some of your gains.
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Case in point for the above:
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seattle prattle wrote:
CG 2 wrote:
I did not beat the market by 70% in 2020. My annual return that year was about 70%. And yes, that is a real figure. I beat by the market by about 11% last year, and I am currently beating the market by about 7% over the last 12 months as I type this. It would be higher, but I made some moves that were overly conservative.
I am very aware of how farfetched this all sounds... I started typing out a lot more, but I have decided I don't really want to share too much about myself here. I am totally fine with you not believing me and know that I would not believe some random poster on the internet either.
That doesn't surprise me too much, though that one year with 70% ROI is big.
And I say that because, if i remember correctly, you've been in the market a relatively short amount of time and the recent years have been pretty good.
Many aggressive portfolios tend to outperform the market in the up years but perform much much worse in the down ones.
So, with that in mind, how did you do in 2022 when the SNP lost 13%?
I would not be surprised if you lost more than that, and therein gave back some of your gains.
I've been investing since 2012, so about 13 years now.
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CG 2 wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I lot of what you say is just not happening. Beating the market every year by 7 to 8% - just not happening. Getting a 70% return in 2020 - just not happening.
Put your portfolio here and we can ascertain if you actually did beat the market by 70% in 2020. You are sounding quite a bit like the highly esteemed Flagpole.
I did not beat the market by 70% in 2020. My annual return that year was about 70%. And yes, that is a real figure. I beat by the market by about 11% last year, and I am currently beating the market by about 7% over the last 12 months as I type this. It would be higher, but I made some moves that were overly conservative.
I am very aware of how farfetched this all sounds... I started typing out a lot more, but I have decided I don't really want to share too much about myself here. I am totally fine with you not believing me and know that I would not believe some random poster on the internet either.
Your annual return in 2020 was 70% while the annual return for the S & P was about 16%. Yeah, that is really believable. You say you don't want to share too much about yourself here. You haven't shared ANYTHING with us except your returns. You haven't shared your name or your investments or anything else. You are sounding a heck of a lot like Flagpole who never told us his investments or even how he calculated his annual returns. Give us 20 of your random investments and we can very easily determine if you actually got a 70% return in 2020.
90% of funds underperformed against the S & P over the last 10 years but you every year beat it by around 8% each and every year and expect to beat it by even more in the coming year.
Oh, beating the S & P by 55% in 2020 ... LOL.
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Sally Vix wrote:
CG 2 wrote:
I did not beat the market by 70% in 2020. My annual return that year was about 70%. And yes, that is a real figure. I beat by the market by about 11% last year, and I am currently beating the market by about 7% over the last 12 months as I type this. It would be higher, but I made some moves that were overly conservative.
I am very aware of how farfetched this all sounds... I started typing out a lot more, but I have decided I don't really want to share too much about myself here. I am totally fine with you not believing me and know that I would not believe some random poster on the internet either.
Your annual return in 2020 was 70% while the annual return for the S & P was about 16%. Yeah, that is really believable. You say you don't want to share too much about yourself here. You haven't shared ANYTHING with us except your returns. You haven't shared your name or your investments or anything else. You are sounding a heck of a lot like Flagpole who never told us his investments or even how he calculated his annual returns. Give us 20 of your random investments and we can very easily determine if you actually got a 70% return in 2020.
90% of funds underperformed against the S & P over the last 10 years but you every year beat it by around 8% each and every year and expect to beat it by even more in the coming year.
Oh, beating the S & P by 55% in 2020 ... LOL.
It was about 70%. I could screenshot my performance chart over the past 10 years and blur out the exact numbers etc and post it here, but that's not really the point. I don't blame you for not believing me and am not trying to convince you, though a person would have had to be an absolute mor0n to have not beat the market that year by a significant amount. I have mostly been trying to figure out where I stand relative to others, especially professionals. You basically saying there's no way possible I've done what I have has let me know where I stand, so thanks.
To your other points, for one, I don't owe you anything. Stop throwing a tantrum over this. Why would you think it's remotely likely I would just post all my trades and positions on here? Did Colonel Sanders print his fried chicken recipe on the back of the box? It's proprietary.
I did not beat the market every single year by 8%. I have averaged around that. I don't think I said I beat it every single year by 8%, but if I did, I misspoke.
Anyway, I don't think I'll write any more about myself on here. I enjoy hearing the different viewpoints, and it seems like me sharing some things has derailed the thread some. We're supposed to be talking about the markets, not about whether or not I'm a phony. Whether I am or not shouldn't really affect anyone else here anyway.
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For what it is worth, I believe you. The test of your skill will come in a severe and extended bear market, the mirror image of the current period.
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70% is the new 10%:
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