The Civil War was in the near future.
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Shiller PE ratio currently at ~40... Only other time it was higher was at the peak of the dot com bubble... Haven't been able to figure out how the market just keeps climbing higher... There must be a LOT of leverage out there. That's really the only explanation I can think of.
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What if AI does not support future EPS growth projections? Or the bond market reacts negatively to rate cuts? How healthy is the real estate market?
This post was edited 44 seconds after it was posted.00 -
Another day, another start of the week. And another day on the market as it grinds higher.
Which brings to mind a particularly appropriate song, if I may say so myself:
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What if AI does not support future EPS growth projections? Or the bond market reacts negatively to rate cuts? How healthy is the real estate market?
If AI does not support future EPS growth projections, nothing will happen as long as its revised growth projections make it a more attractive investment than other alternative investments.
Even a downwardly revised outlook still make it the best prospect out there.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What if AI does not support future EPS growth projections? Or the bond market reacts negatively to rate cuts? How healthy is the real estate market?
If AI does not support future EPS growth projections, nothing will happen as long as its revised growth projections make it a more attractive investment than other alternative investments.
Even a downwardly revised outlook still make it the best prospect out there.
Evidently everyone but me believes that.
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no longer banned in the loon star state gente wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Think of the mentality today. It is often not about producing something of value. Working hard, saving for the future. It is a getting what is coming to me, as if me is someone special. I am going to trade this market. Book my investments. All on the hot number, with everyone believing 4,000% is real.
I will be 75 in a couple of weeks. I could have never imagined some of the things people believe in today. Weird stuff, not just in markets. It is breathtakingly weird. Yes I am old, too old for lunacy anyway.
"Paper bubbles of all descriptions, . . . The worst of all these evils is the moral pestilence of
luxurious exemption from honest labor which is infecting all classes of
society.”Anybody want to guess when this was written?
Reinstated after another ban for alleged spam. It seems the AI used by LR.C doesn't understand satire.
Friday, the S&P 500 had a 6666 print ( ended the day at 6664.36 ). How ironic would it be if this marked the market top, when 666 marked the market bottom in March 2008!
As for the quote, I have no idea, but I will cast a wild guess of Woodrow Wilson, 1916-ish
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What if AI does not support future EPS growth projections? Or the bond market reacts negatively to rate cuts? How healthy is the real estate market?
If AI does not support future EPS growth projections, nothing will happen as long as its revised growth projections make it a more attractive investment than other alternative investments.
Even a downwardly revised outlook still make it the best prospect out there.
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I guess I am not the only skeptic.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
If AI does not support future EPS growth projections, nothing will happen as long as its revised growth projections make it a more attractive investment than other alternative investments.
Even a downwardly revised outlook still make it the best prospect out there.
As for the deal announcement and the subsequent "Adding +$200 Billion of market cap over the last hour", I saw it start rocketing up earlier this morning and jumped to buy a few more shares, juggled that a bit, but am up so far on that.
Just fun money, though, since that pails in comparison to my long term holding in the company.
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Does anyone here consistently beat the market? We all talk investing and economics, but I don't see people posting their actual returns much, except for Flagpole coming on here once in awhile and bloviating about himself. Is anyone here actually good at this? lol
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Klondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
Hey Newname!
Shana Tovah!
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The Civil War was in the near future.
Replying to Edwin Starr,the answer is Railroad Stocks.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As for the deal announcement and the subsequent "Adding +$200 Billion of market cap over the last hour", I saw it start rocketing up earlier this morning and jumped to buy a few more shares, juggled that a bit, but am up so far on that.
Just fun money, though, since that pails in comparison to my long term holding in the company.
That’s good. I just can’t reconcile Nvidia gives money to OpenAI who gives money to Coreweave who gives money to Nvidia who gives money to OpenAi who gives money to Coreweave who gives money to OpenAI who gives money to Nvidia. Two sins of the Tech Bubble were vendor based financing circular in nature, and analysts playing the role of cheerleaders knowing the risky behavior.
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Almost forgot, 40 years ago today.
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CG 2 wrote:
Does anyone here consistently beat the market? We all talk investing and economics, but I don't see people posting their actual returns much, except for Flagpole coming on here once in awhile and bloviating about himself. Is anyone here actually good at this? lol
Sure, I know a guy who does....
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
As for the deal announcement and the subsequent "Adding +$200 Billion of market cap over the last hour", I saw it start rocketing up earlier this morning and jumped to buy a few more shares, juggled that a bit, but am up so far on that.
Just fun money, though, since that pails in comparison to my long term holding in the company.
That’s good. I just can’t reconcile Nvidia gives money to OpenAI who gives money to Coreweave who gives money to Nvidia who gives money to OpenAi who gives money to Coreweave who gives money to OpenAI who gives money to Nvidia. Two sins of the Tech Bubble were vendor based financing circular in nature, and analysts playing the role of cheerleaders knowing the risky behavior.
I can see that.
There's so much going down these days, I can't keep track. And I've given up trying.
And remember - that's just the part we know about.
I wouldn't overthink it.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s good. I just can’t reconcile Nvidia gives money to OpenAI who gives money to Coreweave who gives money to Nvidia who gives money to OpenAi who gives money to Coreweave who gives money to OpenAI who gives money to Nvidia. Two sins of the Tech Bubble were vendor based financing circular in nature, and analysts playing the role of cheerleaders knowing the risky behavior.
I can see that.
There's so much going down these days, I can't keep track. And I've given up trying.
And remember - that's just the part we know about.
I wouldn't overthink it.
Just this morning: Goldman's head of Delta One slams Nvidia's increasingly grotesque vendor financing circle jerk
"... definitely not old enough to have been around trading during the tech bubble and let’s level set, multiples are nowhere near that point in time. That said, vendor financing was a feature of that era and when when the telecom equipment makers (Cisco, Lucent, Nortel, etc.) extended loans, equity investments, or credit guarantees to their customers who then used the cash/credit to buy back the equipment…well suffice it to say, it did not end well for anyone." - Rich Privorotsky00 -
CG 2 wrote:
Does anyone here consistently beat the market? We all talk investing and economics, but I don't see people posting their actual returns much, except for Flagpole coming on here once in awhile and bloviating about himself. Is anyone here actually good at this? lol
Pretty much no one beats market consistent. You want to match the market returns. Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet about the only ones.
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Sally Vix wrote:
CG 2 wrote:
Does anyone here consistently beat the market? We all talk investing and economics, but I don't see people posting their actual returns much, except for Flagpole coming on here once in awhile and bloviating about himself. Is anyone here actually good at this? lol
Pretty much no one beats market consistent. You want to match the market returns. Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet about the only ones.
I have read where 80% of index funds beat actively managed funds managed by "experts."
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