Official Covid Vaccine thread

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

jty wrote:

https://www.soa.org/4a368a/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2022/group-life-covid-19-mortality-03-2022-report.pdf

Forgot to quote. I feel like a 70 year old man with a cellphone.

Thanks again. I sincerely appreciate your help in unraveling this narrative.

Figures 8.2 - 8.7 of that report showing excess mortality vs vaccination rates by state would seem to be problematic for Dowd's inference that vaccination is implicated in insurance industry excess mortality. That is, vaccination rate is negatively correlated with excess mortality over all periods, but most notably during the delta wave in Q3-4 of 2021.

e.g.

Image:monkeystyping.neocities.org/covid/grou...

From CDC data the proportion of Covid deaths in the younger, nominally "working age" population increases during 2021, again most notably during the delta wave, which is consistent with the emergence of more transmissible strains of Covid and lower vaccination rates in the younger population.

Image:monkeystyping.neocities.org/covid/Perc...

Under scrutiny, I don't see how Dowd's narrative holds up and, frankly, how it can be made out to be a good faith misinterpretation of the data he's using.

carmine9 wrote:

mRNA Vaccines Increase Risk of Infection
Very bad news for the triple vaccinated and boosted
DR PANDA
DEC 21

Good Morning!
Maybe you’ve heard people saying the only ones getting sick from COVID-19 are the vaccinated? I know I’ve heard it! Well, it turns out they may be right.
The Cleveland Clinic put out a rather large study of its 51,011 employees trying to find out the Effectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Bivalent Vaccine.
What they found out was………………
THE RISK OF COVID-19 INFECTION INCREASES WITH THE NUMBER OF DOSES
People who received three or more vaccines were 3x more likely to be reinfected than people who had none.

Risk of COVID-19 increased with time since the most recent prior COVID-19 episode and with the number of vaccine doses previously received.
The Cleveland Clinic found the results to be “unexpected.”
The association of increased risk of COVID-19 with higher numbers of prior vaccine doses in our study, was unexpected.
Researchers tried to blame this on people with a higher risk of COVID-19 simply got more vaccine doses. However they admit only a small proportion of people were at higher risk - most were young and healthy.
A simplistic explanation might be that those who received more doses were more likely to be individuals at higher risk of COVID-19. A small proportion of individuals may have fit this description. However, the majority of subjects in this study were generally young individuals and all were eligible to have received at least 3 doses of vaccine by the study start date, and which they had every opportunity to do.
The study continued to say those with 3 or fewer vaccines, who chose not to follow the CDC’s recommendations, are more likely to have “exhibited higher risk-taking behavior.” Before conceding their risk was less than those who actually followed the CDC’s recommendations.
Therefore, those who received fewer than 3 doses (>45% of individuals in the study) were not those ineligible to receive the vaccine, but those who chose not to follow the CDC’s recommendations on remaining updated with COVID-19 vaccination, and one could reasonably expect these individuals to have been more likely to have exhibited higher risk- taking behavior. Despite this, their risk of acquiring COVID-19 was lower than those who received a larger number of prior vaccine doses.
They were not the only study to find an association with more prior vaccine doses and higher risks of COVID-19. They reference 2 additional studies:
Study 1: Found those who had an Omicron variant infection with three vaccine doses had a higher risk of reinfection vs those who had an Omicron variant infection but only had 2 vaccine doses.
Study 2: Found either two or three doses of mRNA vaccine after a prior COVID-19 infection had a higher risk of reinfection vs a single mRNA vaccine dose.
This is not the only study to find a possible association with more prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.
They were not even able to determine if the mRNA vaccine even protected against severe disease - the last remaining reason for people to support mass vaccination.
There were too few severe illnesses for the study to be able to determine if the vaccine decreased severity of illness.
In closing they added:
We still have a lot to learn about protection from COVID-19 vaccination, and in addition to a vaccine’s effectiveness it is important to examine whether multiple vaccine doses given over time may not be having the beneficial effect that is generally assumed.

Recap:
The Cleveland Clinic research study finds the higher number of vaccines received, the higher the risk of COVID reinfection. People who received three or more vaccines were 3x more likely to be reinfected than people who had none. They were also not able to even determine if the vaccines provide protection against severe disease.
What exactly are these vaccines doing? They are not preventing transmission, they are not preventing severe disease, they are not stopping the risk of reinfection. Can anyone find a positive benefit? The CDC and FDA are effectively blind at this point.
This should be very concerning to the vaccinated should a more virulent variant of Omicron emerge.

Covidiocy wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Figure 2 shows that vaccination status (lack thereof) is far more predictive of VTE than age.

There's no doubt that risk of VTE is increased by COVID even in young people -- but VTE is not super common to begin with in those groups. The point is that there is additional risk and the vaccination mitigates it.

Antivaxxers have knowingly harmed themselves and there's no way to undo it.

Another shoddy analysis by the “data expert” and a very poor paper to corroborate what you are demanding, i.e. EVERYONE unvaccinated is at higher risk of an adverse event like VTE.

The same table shows the average BMI is over 27, which, while not “technically” obese is pretty f ing overweight. We already know, as we have known since spring of 2020, that adipose tissue is a natural reservoir and potentiator of infection.

If you are old, fat, and unvaccinated, your risk of an adverse outcome goes up… wow, no kidding. That’s some serious Sherlock Holmes data sleuthing right there. And, to think, there were doctors recognizing the need for an anti-thrombotic in March of 2020 and who saved lives, even if they defied medical “authorities” and lost hospital privileges. Even if they were cancelled. You know, back when the standard of care was Remdesivir (killed people) and ventilation.

No one who is not in a high-risk group and has deliberately decided to decline the mRNA “vax,” especially after convalescence, is worried about self harm. Actually we worry for others who are not in the control group. We need another few years to really have enough data to make a firm judgement one way or the other. We do, however, go to sleep at night knowing that we won’t suffer an aortic aneurysm.

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

Covidiocy wrote:

Another shoddy analysis by the “data expert” and a very poor paper to corroborate what you are demanding, i.e. EVERYONE unvaccinated is at higher risk of an adverse event like VTE.

The same table shows the average BMI is over 27, which, while not “technically” obese is pretty f ing overweight. We already know, as we have known since spring of 2020, that adipose tissue is a natural reservoir and potentiator of infection.

If you are old, fat, and unvaccinated, your risk of an adverse outcome goes up… wow, no kidding. That’s some serious Sherlock Holmes data sleuthing right there. And, to think, there were doctors recognizing the need for an anti-thrombotic in March of 2020 and who saved lives, even if they defied medical “authorities” and lost hospital privileges. Even if they were cancelled. You know, back when the standard of care was Remdesivir (killed people) and ventilation.

No one who is not in a high-risk group and has deliberately decided to decline the mRNA “vax,” especially after convalescence, is worried about self harm. Actually we worry for others who are not in the control group. We need another few years to really have enough data to make a firm judgement one way or the other. We do, however, go to sleep at night knowing that we won’t suffer an aortic aneurysm.

Not clear what you're on about. This is the referenced figure.

Image:monkeystyping.neocities.org/covid/Clin...

Covidiocy wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Figure 2 shows that vaccination status (lack thereof) is far more predictive of VTE than age.

There's no doubt that risk of VTE is increased by COVID even in young people -- but VTE is not super common to begin with in those groups. The point is that there is additional risk and the vaccination mitigates it.

Antivaxxers have knowingly harmed themselves and there's no way to undo it.

Another shoddy analysis by the “data expert” and a very poor paper to corroborate what you are demanding, i.e. EVERYONE unvaccinated is at higher risk of an adverse event like VTE.

The same table shows the average BMI is over 27, which, while not “technically” obese is pretty f ing overweight. We already know, as we have known since spring of 2020, that adipose tissue is a natural reservoir and potentiator of infection.

If you are old, fat, and unvaccinated, your risk of an adverse outcome goes up… wow, no kidding. That’s some serious Sherlock Holmes data sleuthing right there. And, to think, there were doctors recognizing the need for an anti-thrombotic in March of 2020 and who saved lives, even if they defied medical “authorities” and lost hospital privileges. Even if they were cancelled. You know, back when the standard of care was Remdesivir (killed people) and ventilation.

No one who is not in a high-risk group and has deliberately decided to decline the mRNA “vax,” especially after convalescence, is worried about self harm. Actually we worry for others who are not in the control group. We need another few years to really have enough data to make a firm judgement one way or the other. We do, however, go to sleep at night knowing that we won’t suffer an aortic aneurysm.

Covidiocy wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Figure 2 shows that vaccination status (lack thereof) is far more predictive of VTE than age.

There's no doubt that risk of VTE is increased by COVID even in young people -- but VTE is not super common to begin with in those groups. The point is that there is additional risk and the vaccination mitigates it.

Antivaxxers have knowingly harmed themselves and there's no way to undo it.

Another shoddy analysis by the “data expert” and a very poor paper to corroborate what you are demanding, i.e. EVERYONE unvaccinated is at higher risk of an adverse event like VTE.

The same table shows the average BMI is over 27, which, while not “technically” obese is pretty f ing overweight. We already know, as we have known since spring of 2020, that adipose tissue is a natural reservoir and potentiator of infection.

If you are old, fat, and unvaccinated, your risk of an adverse outcome goes up… wow, no kidding. That’s some serious Sherlock Holmes data sleuthing right there. And, to think, there were doctors recognizing the need for an anti-thrombotic in March of 2020 and who saved lives, even if they defied medical “authorities” and lost hospital privileges. Even if they were cancelled. You know, back when the standard of care was Remdesivir (killed people) and ventilation.

No one who is not in a high-risk group and has deliberately decided to decline the mRNA “vax,” especially after convalescence, is worried about self harm. Actually we worry for others who are not in the control group. We need another few years to really have enough data to make a firm judgement one way or the other. We do, however, go to sleep at night knowing that we won’t suffer an aortic aneurysm.

Harambe wrote:

Covidiocy wrote:

Another shoddy analysis by the “data expert” and a very poor paper to corroborate what you are demanding, i.e. EVERYONE unvaccinated is at higher risk of an adverse event like VTE.

The same table shows the average BMI is over 27, which, while not “technically” obese is pretty f ing overweight. We already know, as we have known since spring of 2020, that adipose tissue is a natural reservoir and potentiator of infection.

If you are old, fat, and unvaccinated, your risk of an adverse outcome goes up… wow, no kidding. That’s some serious Sherlock Holmes data sleuthing right there. And, to think, there were doctors recognizing the need for an anti-thrombotic in March of 2020 and who saved lives, even if they defied medical “authorities” and lost hospital privileges. Even if they were cancelled. You know, back when the standard of care was Remdesivir (killed people) and ventilation.

No one who is not in a high-risk group and has deliberately decided to decline the mRNA “vax,” especially after convalescence, is worried about self harm. Actually we worry for others who are not in the control group. We need another few years to really have enough data to make a firm judgement one way or the other. We do, however, go to sleep at night knowing that we won’t suffer an aortic aneurysm.

The data speaks for itself. You are free to twist yourself into knots to reassure that getting COVID unvaxxed is not harmful.

I don't contest that the risk of a severe cardiovascular event is small for young, healthy people -- both pre and post COVID. What matters for risk:benefit calculations is marginal risk and there's no doubt that risk of VTE goes up if you're unvaxxed and get COVID.

You may say "I am OK with that risk because I am healthy so the increase in risk is [small number] -> [larger but still small number]." That is fine!

What is not fine is running around pretending that the vaccine may be harmful because [anecdotes] when we have hard data showing that the vaccine actually protects against the same harm you are alleging.

You are free to injure yourself, to disregard such a risk, and be aggressively ignorant. When you start to fearmonger (likely as a way to reassure yourself) then we gotta step in and put you in your place. Cheers.

trashcan wrote:

Covidiocy wrote:

Another shoddy analysis by the “data expert” and a very poor paper to corroborate what you are demanding, i.e. EVERYONE unvaccinated is at higher risk of an adverse event like VTE.

The same table shows the average BMI is over 27, which, while not “technically” obese is pretty f ing overweight. We already know, as we have known since spring of 2020, that adipose tissue is a natural reservoir and potentiator of infection.

If you are old, fat, and unvaccinated, your risk of an adverse outcome goes up… wow, no kidding. That’s some serious Sherlock Holmes data sleuthing right there. And, to think, there were doctors recognizing the need for an anti-thrombotic in March of 2020 and who saved lives, even if they defied medical “authorities” and lost hospital privileges. Even if they were cancelled. You know, back when the standard of care was Remdesivir (killed people) and ventilation.

No one who is not in a high-risk group and has deliberately decided to decline the mRNA “vax,” especially after convalescence, is worried about self harm. Actually we worry for others who are not in the control group. We need another few years to really have enough data to make a firm judgement one way or the other. We do, however, go to sleep at night knowing that we won’t suffer an aortic aneurysm.

You made note of the BMI being over 27. This study took place in the UK where the mean BMI is 27.6. So, a BMI of over 27 is completely normal for the population. In the United States the mean BMI is 29. You may consider that extremely heavy, but it is the norm.