Crater appears to have some issues at #5. Their 5th finished just ahead of a boy that has a 158 SB speed rating.
Seattle Prep won, but their top guy finished 19 seconds back of the winner after being with him at 2 miles. Their #2 guy finished around 167 type speed rating guys.
Issaquah looked not good.
Depending on how Jesuit looks, it is totally possible CDA and Rocky are the top 2 teams (which might mean Boise would be #3).
Jesuits number 2 didn’t finish??? That would’ve made it a little closer, but Franklin still made a statement today.
Crater average 15:57 to Franklin’s 16:04. Interesting results, next Saturday should be fun with the top 3 Idaho boys teams plus these ORegon schools and Seattle Prep possibly.
Jesuits number 2 didn’t finish??? That would’ve made it a little closer, but Franklin still made a statement today.
Crater average 15:57 to Franklin’s 16:04. Interesting results, next Saturday should be fun with the top 3 Idaho boys teams plus these ORegon schools and Seattle Prep possibly.
Oregon and Washington did not look good today. I would not be shocked to see Idaho teams go 1-3. Caden Swanson closed slower today than he did last year and ran 12 seconds slower. Jack Meier closed a little slower than Samy Anderson and was 10 seconds slower, but he put 17 seconds on second place in the last mile.
Who were the freshman and sophomores who ran good times in the two mile? Was it a time trial or a race or last year?
The HOKA 2 mile that was run during XC season. According to the strava's I saw that day, there was some decent wind as well. Bolded are fresh/soph times. Non bolded are junior times. This is also leaving out Parker Goggins (incoming Junior).
Wow that's crazy! I would think that the 9:47 and 10 flat were sophomores? Would that have been tuft and another sophomore? How many good freshmen do they have because I've heard of about two in Idaho the Luke Bruce kid and Wyatt Carr.
Wow that's crazy! I would think that the 9:47 and 10 flat were sophomores? Would that have been tuft and another sophomore? How many good freshmen do they have because I've heard of about two in Idaho the Luke Bruce kid and Wyatt Carr.
Their top freshman time was 17:32 at Firman.
Freshmen: 17:32, 17:44, 18:36, 18:51. 3 of the top 4 ran their fastest at Firman.
Those speed ratings are 140, 136, 118, 114.
Boise actually has 3 freshman with better seasonal PR's than Rocky's top freshman boy (all also ran faster at Firman than Rocky's top freshman) and 6 in front of their 3rd.
CDA had 4 freshman at 17:10 or faster and another at 17:33.
Their speed rating bests this year were 173, 151, 148, 139, 139.
CDA's freshman team would likely be the 5th returning team in Idaho next year.
It should be expected that CDA’s freshman class each year would be more advanced than other programs with their club coach pumping out kids that are training quite a bit from a young age.
Did the number 1 and 2 on rocky run close to each other most of the season like there pr's show cause if so that would make for more motivation for the number 2 guy and what are the names of the rocky 1 and 2 and the boise freshman, sorry i dont know much i havent been studying idaho cross country this season to much haha.
I was not at the Oregon state meet, but I was at the Washington. the course got progressively worse throughout the day as more and more athletes tore up the grass during a very rainy day. That is why the races progressively slowed down relative to the athletes’ potential throughout the day. don’t factor in speed ratings for WA. Especially for the back guys who had to navigate falling bodies as they ran
It has to be Rocky. Boise graduates a ton. Mt View returns a decent amount but everyone else is losing a good chunk.
Rocky returns their #2,3,5, and 7 from the state meet and also Goggins who did not run there. So that’s 5 already
Boise loses their #1,3,4
CDA will be #1 in Idaho again next year. They only lose 2 varsity seniors
While Goggins is a nice piece, I'm not certain he would have ended up on the final Rocky state roster. I'm aware that he was injured and that impacted his performances later in the year, however, he was a 156 at Caldwell. If he improves the average amount from first meet to season's best for Rocky runners, that's a 162. Average performance increase would put him in the 159 average speed rating range.
It will be interesting to see if Cody Lucas underperforms at Eagle Island. As it stands today, he's the 4th returner at State and I suspect that Tuft and Carr will make the jump over him, and Reitze is a definite possibility to do so as well.
I think Rocky's style will be quite a bit different next year, at least in big meets. They'll lack a true low stick (as in less than 10 points at Firman), but I think their pack will be tighter next year and maybe a bit further up. My guess is that Tuft and Lucas will record at least a couple 180+, and they'll have 3-4 guys that record 170+ a couple of times. In other words, they'll be a very, very good team that I think will ultimately get overshadowed by CDA. I think Sheesley will record high 180's next year, and Boise has the guys to record a few in the low 170's and has the potential to upset Rocky.
What would be your varsity and alternate predictions for boise rocky and cda next year? Do you think that rockys top 7 returners all make it or do you think another rocky guy makes it? Also how do you think wyatt carr does next year
I was thinking about this a bit last night. Rocky has a ton of speed rating data for deeper than their top 7 that's readily available and they have the guys to make any JV race quality. With that, we can get a ton more data points on Rocky and get a really clear picture of performance.
Heemeyer: 187/187/183/185/188 Lucas: 178/176/169/178/180/175/178 Tuft: 153/164/171/173/171/166/173 Jensen: 163/163/165/166/167/164/164 Richardson: 163/160/163/154/163/164/171 Kurtz: 155/157/159/166/158/159/146 Thomas: 155/150/158/164/156/160/162 Miller: 158/154/156/156/154/152 Clark: 133/130/144/153/152/154 Goggins: 157/DNR/115 (my understanding is that he went out very controlled and got to race hard the last 2 miles, so I won't count this as the low)/159/156/126 Carlson: 146/144/151/151/147/153 Beeler: 145/138/146/DNR/143/153 Ball: 140/137/150/151/146/150 Chugg: 138/135/94/152/150/145 Cole Reed: 135/128/140/145/137/134
Average improvement from first meet of the year to districts: +2.93 Average improvement from first meet of the year to state: +4 Average improvement from first meet of the year to season's best: +4.87 Average removing high and low: Heemeyer: 186.33 Lucas: 177 Tuft: 169 Jensen: 164.4 Richardson: 162.6 Kurtz: 157.6 Thomas: 158.2 Miller: 155 Clark: 145.5 Goggins: 156.5 Carlson: 148.75 Beeler: 144.66 Ball: 146.5 Chugg: 142 Cole Reed: 136.5 Average improvement from start of season to average performance: +2.8
In terms of time, from the first meet to districts, Rocky's top 15 ran just under 9 seconds faster in performance quality, meaning that all things held equal, if they ran the district meet at Caldwell, they would have run 8.7 seconds faster than they did to start the season.
From the start of the season to season's best performance, on average they ran 14.61 seconds faster.
On average, the average quality of performance was 8.4 seconds faster than the first meet of the season.
Per my previous post, the top 7 had improvements of 2.55 seconds from first meet to districts, 5.13 to state, 15 seconds from first to best, and 5.13 from first to average when using Tuft's first race on varsity. When doing the same, the top 15 average performance at districts is closer to 7.5 seconds, start to average is closer to 14.4 seconds, start to average quality is closer to 7.3.
My hope is that as I crunch these numbers for teams over the next few years, we can start to decipher trends and then make 80% accurate guesses at the end of the season within the first few weeks, barring injury or illness.
Doesn't rocky have the best depth in the state? i get they are losing a lot but i wouldn't necessarily say they lack freshman talent with two in the mid 17's and two in the mid 18's. Out of their top 7 they graduate Heemeyer, Richardson, and Jensan. So they would fill that with Goggins, Clark, and Beeler.
Doesn't rocky have the best depth in the state? i get they are losing a lot but i wouldn't necessarily say they lack freshman talent with two in the mid 17's and two in the mid 18's. Out of their top 7 they graduate Heemeyer, Richardson, and Jensan. So they would fill that with Goggins, Clark, and Beeler.
And that's not to mention track where they always have like half a dozen guys jump into the low tens and 4:40's.
Say what you want about other aspects of Rocky's training, but Jeff Howard is a wizard when it comes to transforming 17/18 minute 5k guys into solid runners. It's quite rare to see a rocky guy stagnate for a whole season.
But in years past there young guys have been much better. I just dont know if they will improve that much, do you think any of the freshman make varsity next year if there coach is apparently good at turning 17/18 guys to elite runners?
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