57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

How do you put two things in quotes, neither of which I said? You don't get to make up what the other person said, then argue against it. I didn't say anything was a solution, just a potential path forward, that many agree with. And I didn't say "hope for the best", I said we monitor hospital capacity and death rates to help guide us. Two verifiable data points, not "ignore it and hope it's ok".

06/18 Data

6/18 Data

Well gents, the world keeps getting worse.

7 day rolling average of daily deaths is rising fairly relentlessly now.

6/18: 4,641

6/11: 4,364

5/18 : 4,617

The high was in mid April: 6,658

Hard to pick out the nations most responsible. Certainly Mexico. That nation is up to 800 deaths per day. Brazil is bad but not getting any worse. Otherwise I think it's just a general upswing.

Mexico moved to 24th worst, per capita. Was 34th worst 3 weeks ago.

The nation typically with the third most daily deaths, the US, continued its rapid improvement.

6/18: 665

6/11: 803

5/18: 1,400

Still no big surge in deaths in the Southern and Western states that have surging case loads. That's good news.

Giles Corey wrote:

Let me see if I have this right.

Getting the virus and recovering does not guarantee that you will not get the virus again.

But a vaccine will prevent you from getting the virus?

But:

A vaccine works by training the immune system to recognize and combat pathogens, either viruses or bacteria. To do this, certain molecules from the pathogen must be introduced into the body to trigger an immune response. These molecules are called antigens, and they are present on all viruses and bacteria.

So can't we conclude that either the idea that you can get the virus more than once is BS or the idea that a vaccine can prevent the virus is BS?

It seems we have to.

Which in turn means that the whole narrative being pushed by Fauci et al is BS.

No?

No. It doesn't mean that at all. Believe it or not, Fauci understands this stuff better than you.

Here are some reasons I can think of that your logic makes no sense:

We don't know for sure if you can get it twice. And if you can get it twice, we don't know how long immunity lasts. And if you get it a second time, perhaps the case is likely to be less severe and you are less likely to pass it on.

Also, we don't know how well a vaccine will work. It may be even more effective than the immune response from having had the disease.

Some vaccines need booster shots from time to time. Examples are MMR and Tetanus. It may be that is the case for the coronavirus vaccine. So it may be that boosters become the norm.

Lastly, even if we came up with a vaccine that only provides immunity for a few months it could be very effective. If you are able to give such a vaccine to most of the population then you would achieve herd immunity for at least a few months. The number of cases would be driven down to a manageable level that we could control with testing and tracing.

For you guys looking past the feasible solutions for the quick fix that may never come or comes too late:

RT at 1.0 for GA and hospitalizations rising.

Get tested.

Galmo wrote:

Fact: Liberals pander to minorities for votes, but...do very little to actually help them. Sounds like someone you know?

Yes, Donald Trump. He's a lib? Who knew?

[quote]Fat hurts wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

Let me see if I have this right.

We don't know for sure if you can get it twice.

Well that's helpful.

Also, we don't know how well a vaccine will work. It may be even more effective than the immune response from having had the disease.

To conclude, we don't know if getting the virus gives any immunity, but a vaccine -- which is based on giving someone a small dose of the virus -- will somehow be more effective than the immune response we get from having had the virus. And this makes sense to you.

Got it.

Huh?

Giles Corey wrote:

[quote]Fat hurts wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

Let me see if I have this right.

We don't know for sure if you can get it twice.

Well that's helpful.

Also, we don't know how well a vaccine will work. It may be even more effective than the immune response from having had the disease.

To conclude, we don't know if getting the virus gives any immunity, but a vaccine -- which is based on giving someone a small dose of the virus -- will somehow be more effective than the immune response we get from having had the virus. And this makes sense to you.

Got it.

We are fairly certain that getting the virus provides at least some immunity.

You need to learn how modern vaccines work. The ones I've seen with the most promise do not use the virus itself.

Newsom gets it. We need to do this in Georgia.

https://abc7news.com/amp/california-mask-policy-new-covid-guidelines-coronavirus-gavin-newsom-face/6254458/

Giles Corey wrote:

[quote]Fat hurts wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

Let me see if I have this right.

We don't know for sure if you can get it twice.

Well that's helpful.

Also, we don't know how well a vaccine will work. It may be even more effective than the immune response from having had the disease.

To conclude, we don't know if getting the virus gives any immunity, but a vaccine -- which is based on giving someone a small dose of the virus -- will somehow be more effective than the immune response we get from having had the virus. And this makes sense to you.

Got it.

The virus has only been around for barely six months. If you are looking for definitive answers this early, you are out of luck. Science takes time.

What we know so far is that most everyone who gets the virus also get the antibodies. A Chinese study found that people with very mild cases did not generate a lot of antibodies in response to the virus and after about two months had very minimal amounts of antibodies. We do not know whether those people have been infected a second time. Evidence of a secondary infection is anecdotal at this time. As time goes on, there will be better data to answer these questions.

Coronavirus is pretty stable. It does engage in gene editing when it replicates. That is good news because the odds of having to fight a new strain every year like the flu are low. That does not mean that the virus is static. It is a living thing and can evolve. It is possible that it could evolve to be less dangerous. A virus that kills its host is usually not successful. A virus needs to keep its host a live so it has a change to find a new host.

Your antibody response to getting the virus and the antibodies you get in a vaccine are not one and the same. The vaccine introduces a deactivated version of the virus that allows you to develop antibodies. So, the problem of a mild infection creating limited immunity can be addressed in the vaccine process. How long the antibodies last can also be addressed in vaccine by adjusting dosing (1 year v. 6 moths v. 3 months etc.). There are also vaccines that work on a genetic level to help your immune system attack the virus.

We have a long way to go before anyone can draw any conclusions about natural immunity and vaccine immunity. And this is why we need to do everything we can to keep infection rates as low as possible. There is a real risk that heard immunity, even if it can be achieved without obliterating the health care system and causing mass death, may not last from year to year or even from one season to the next. And there is a real risk that individual immunity may also not last. And if we get a good vaccine that actually helps stop transmission, we may have a shot at eradicating the virus if we keep infection levels as low as possible.

.

GA Gal wrote:

Newsom gets it. We need to do this in Georgia.

https://abc7news.com/amp/california-mask-policy-new-covid-guidelines-coronavirus-gavin-newsom-face/6254458/

I agree. But Kemp wouldn't dare.

Fat hurts wrote:

GA Gal wrote:

Newsom gets it. We need to do this in Georgia.

I agree. But Kemp wouldn't dare.

And the worst part is that the case numbers are clearly going in the wrong direction.

* 7-day average of daily new cases just hit an all-time high. (Yes, we have more testing now, but still a bad sign.)

* Positivity has been steadily rising for the past 10 days.

* 7-day average positivity is now 8.03%.

* The GA DPH graph just hit an all-time high for 7-day average of cases for June 11th. Because that's within the 14-day window, it will likely go higher.

7-day average daily deaths on the DPH graph are steady, but instead of being steady at 22 per day, they are now steady at 25 per day. At least it's not spiking.

Kemp will not do anything about this until the hospitals start to fill up. Of course by then, it will be too late. IHME is now projecting that Georgia's ICU beds will be overrun by July 27th.

If that plays out, nobody is going back to school.

6/19 Data

06/19 Data

Another good day for America but worse day for the world

.

The US 7 day rolling average of daily deaths hit yet another cyclical low. 655. That number has been falling by 10-30 people every day. It's now the lowest since March, in the early days of the pandemic.

The world's 7 day rolling average of daily deaths took a big spike up, rising more than any other recent day and is at new cyclical highs. Not all time highs tho...when europe and the US were in the teeth of it the number was around 1/3 higher.

Brazil continues to be a very bad place to be, with over 1,000 deaths every day. But it's not just Brazil...the world ex-brazil also hits new highs every day. Brazil passed Switzerland to go into 17th worst nation, per capita. Mexico passed Portugal to go into 23rd worst.

Looks like deaths are starting to rise in Texas...we've been hoping that wouldn't happen after a long rise in cases. Not so much elsewhere though in the South. But per capita Texas is quite safe, 41st worst state. Arizona and Georgia and CA and FL aren't showing rises in deaths despite surging caseloads.

How did he know there will be a surprise outbreak during the next administration? He could say sometime in the future. But no, something the next admin will have to deal with. I.e., within four years.

Giles Corey wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C95ECjxgcJE&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR34nUy-Yo5F5UxdqsU4JxtZFpcoky1lZ6_lzjrjvyFZm61xDZjdFhGUaCk

How did he know there will be a surprise outbreak during the next administration? He could say sometime in the future. But no, something the next admin will have to deal with. I.e., within four years.

That would be because every administration has to deal with preparedness for epidemics. As Fauci said, history shows us that these things happen with relative frequency. The Obama administration had to deal with MERS, H1N1, and Ebola.

It wasn't a great leap of logic to predict that the next administration would need to deal infectious disease outbreaks as well. And it's Fauci's job to let a new administration know what it will likely face.

Of course, Tiny's administration ignored those warnings. It disbanded the pandemic task force. It threw away the pandemic play book. And when coronavirus hit, our idiot in chief said it was a hoax. Then a few weeks later he said it was a National Emergency.

Fat hurts wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C95ECjxgcJE&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR34nUy-Yo5F5UxdqsU4JxtZFpcoky1lZ6_lzjrjvyFZm61xDZjdFhGUaCk

How did he know there will be a surprise outbreak during the next administration? He could say sometime in the future. But no, something the next admin will have to deal with. I.e., within four years.

That would be because every administration has to deal with preparedness for epidemics. As Fauci said, history shows us that these things happen with relative frequency. The Obama administration had to deal with MERS, H1N1, and Ebola.

It wasn't a great leap of logic to predict that the next administration would need to deal infectious disease outbreaks as well.

Sure it is. This is allegedly the worst thing since the Spanish Flu 100 years ago. The "epidemics" you cite as having to be dealt with by the Obama admin....any lockdowns required? Mask wearing for everyone? Of course not.

None is so blind as he who will not see. You are in denial

OMG 35 deaths/day now! Be FEARful. FULL of fear! Lockdown everything no and until the fear is instilled in everyone forever!