Been keeping a little cash on the sidelines in the thought that it's good to have a little powder dry ready to invest if we should finally get a dip. But this market has just been grinding upwards, so may go fully invested Monday if this uptrend continues.
Santa Claus rally ahead and first few weeks of January are usually good.
Been keeping a little cash on the sidelines in the thought that it's good to have a little powder dry ready to invest if we should finally get a dip. But this market has just been grinding upwards, so may go fully invested Monday if this uptrend continues.
Santa Claus rally ahead and first few weeks of January are usually good.
I'm pretty much all-in, as far as I go. 66% stocks, which is aggressive as I get these days. the good news is that small caps beat the SP500 in November, which helped to heal heal what had been a bad year for me, in comparison to the indices. I'm hoping that continues as the economy gets back to normal. Still down 150 bps compared to my benchmark, but in 2022 I was up 400 bps so it's not bad.
Point is I don't have a lot of dry powder, unless I go past my typical ceiling for stocks.
I'll start going over year-end predictions.
In a world of wrong, Peter Schiff stands out, innit? Here he predicted bond prices to collapse, the dollar to crash and gold to go to the moon. I'll shorthand returns to a year even though the prediction is 14m old. He probably didn't think inflation would fall this quickly.
1year
SP500 +15%
Bonds +1%
Gold +14%
Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff The #bond market was in the process of crashing and just like the BoE, the #Fed folded with a soft-pivot. The Fed's bluff has been called. Instead of a bond crash it will be a dollar crash. Of course, when the dollar crashes, the real value of bonds crashes too. #Gold will moon! 6:15 PM · Oct 21, 2022
In June BofA said the era of tech leadership was ending.
very, very, very wrong so far
Since the day of the tweet:
tech +31%
equal-weighted SP500: +4.0%
This is a never-ending question...how much longer will tech lead. permanently? Just own tech and nothing else?
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner #Fed QE was the catalyst for a 12y tech boom, BofA says. Tech discounted end of QE but central banks now set to reduce liquidity by $3tn next 18 months, fact remains QE-era over…as is era of tech leadership in global stock markets, BofA says.
More good news on the housing market. This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index posted its biggest annual increase since 2006—just before the housing market crash. Home prices in all 20 metro areas included in the i...
(Bloomberg) -- US stocks are headed for a rocky end to the year after rallying in November as bond yields fluctuate, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.Most Read from BloombergHow Suspects Laundered Billions in Sing...
>half right! Hedgies only have to be 51% right so I guess they won this one.
They bet the SP500 would fall...but it rose 8%
They bet tech stocks to go up...and they went up 10%.
So I guess they did get their 2% of alpha. But on the other hand, the rest of us got 8-10%. Risk adjust that, hedgies!
WSJ on 6/4/23
Wall Street hasn’t been this bearish on the stock market in more than a decade. Tech shares are a different story. Hedge funds and other speculative investors have built up a big bet that the S&P 500 will decline, marking their most bearish positioning since 2007. At the same time, they are preparing for a rally in the technology-focused Nasdaq-100, with net bullish wagers in recent weeks approaching the highest levels since late last year.
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
Yeah this didn't happen. One of the most respected macro-stock guys gets it all wrong.
End of 2022:
The global economy is headed for a severe recession, Mohamed El-Erian has warned. The economist expects "more uncertainty in the future as shocks grow more frequent and more violent". The recession will be drawn-out rather than "short and shallow", he added. Markets should brace for a severe recession that might forever change the world economy, Mohamed El-Erian has warned. The economist said on Tuesday that a combination of pressures on supply, central bank tightening, and market "fragility" were all likely to weigh on growth.
I am up 20% on my EM Bond CEFs, made money on my leveraged shorts all year, though currently down 9% on my largest yearly position. Maintain a small HSGFX position which I am modestly positive.
That article mentions those stocks "that got crushed in '73 and '74 (which is true) but fails to follow up with the fact that the S & P, over the next 25 years, had 23 years of incredible up years of total return and only 3 years of down total years, and those were very mild down returns. Look at this chart beginning in 1975 and running through 2000. Pretty much all blue. Extremely misleading to talk about how bad '73 and '74 were but not to mention how great the ensuing 25 years were.
I am up 20% on my EM Bond CEFs, made money on my leveraged shorts all year, though currently down 9% on my largest yearly position. Maintain a small HSGFX position which I am modestly positive.
Nobody cares. You won’t say your total account % return YTD because it’s probably negative lol. Dumb slow dork.
I am up 20% on my EM Bond CEFs, made money on my leveraged shorts all year, though currently down 9% on my largest yearly position. Maintain a small HSGFX position which I am modestly positive.
I thought you talked about months ago about buying more HSGFX. It is, after all, only down 11% for the year while the NASDAQ is up 37% for the year. I think I might avoid HSGFX until hell freezes over.
I am up 20% on my EM Bond CEFs, made money on my leveraged shorts all year, though currently down 9% on my largest yearly position. Maintain a small HSGFX position which I am modestly positive.
Nobody cares. You won’t say your total account % return YTD because it’s probably negative lol. Dumb slow dork.
Pray the judge goes light on your continued substance abuse arrests.
I am up 20% on my EM Bond CEFs, made money on my leveraged shorts all year, though currently down 9% on my largest yearly position. Maintain a small HSGFX position which I am modestly positive.
Nobody cares. You won’t say your total account % return YTD because it’s probably negative lol. Dumb slow dork.
To be fair to Igy, everyone here has a YTD total return % that pales next to Flagpole's.
I am up 20% on my EM Bond CEFs, made money on my leveraged shorts all year, though currently down 9% on my largest yearly position. Maintain a small HSGFX position which I am modestly positive.
I thought you talked about months ago about buying more HSGFX. It is, after all, only down 11% for the year while the NASDAQ is up 37% for the year. I think I might avoid HSGFX until hell freezes over.
No, I sold down my HSGFX position under 20%, used proceeds to trade between EM Bond CEFs and leveraged shorts. Last purchase of HSGFX was more than six months ago. I could add back into HSGFX if I do well on leveraged shorts, since it is unlikely I will significantly add to EM Bond CEFs.
I found this interesting graph. Look at how HSGFX does from 2008 to 2020. It is like a hawk diving down to get its prey. And I don't mean sauntering down but the hawk is in full-blown attack mode.
