Looks like we're still 4%ish below the SP500 all-time high.
On we go.
November was the best month in over three decades for a classic stock and bond portfolio, as both markets posted their best returns in years, according to a Bank of America Global Research report on Friday.
The percentages in the following table represent the historical frequency of these indexes rising in a given month, between the years 1987 and 2018. Months are ordered from best to worst, in descending order.
RankMonth of YearFrequency of Growth (%)Difference from Mean (p.p.)#1December79.0%+19.9#2April74.3%+15.2#3October68.6%+9.5#4July61.7%+2.6#5May58.6%-0.5#6November58.4%-0.7#7January57.8%-1.3#8February57.0%-2.1#9March56.3%-2.8#10September51.6%-7.5#11August49.3%-9.8#12June36.7%-22.4Average59.1%n/a
Well, we are on the last day of November 2023, and let's remember what our resident permabear said back in February:
...from 2/23/2023:
"Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review."
So, let's see where the S&P 500 sits today...4,555.62 as of 10:15 AM Eastern. When Igy made his pontification, the S&P 500 stood at 3,991, so instead of falling about 25% since then as he predicted, it has instead risen about 14%. Pretty far off so far, BUT there's one more month to go, so we will get the final word next month!
What is your prediction for the end of this year and the end of next? It’s easy to not make a prediction and then mock those who do. Yes, I get that you are a permabull, but what is your ye target for 2024?
I don't make short-term predictions...that's the point of this. It should never be done as the market is too unpredictable, and it for sure should never be done with the certainty that Igy displayed there. He decided to draw a line in the sand with asking agip to bookmark the page, so I am just helping him with his record keeping. Had he not done so, I would not be looking at this closely. It should also be noted that he COULD have been proven right. I'm just looking at the data and I would have recorded him bring either right or wrong.
Also, I am not a permabull. I am a permainvestor. I am a permarealist. History tells us that on average the stock market goes up 73% of calendar years. That's good enough for me to invest consistently. When the market is down, stocks are on sale, so I don't even mind that. Investing should ONLY be seen as putting money away today that you don't need today so that you have money later when you no longer have an income. That's it.
So, what is my prediction of the stock market in 2024? I don't make predictions over such a short period of time. I will continue to invest like clockwork no matter what the market does even though I am retired my wife still works, so we invest while either of us is investing. Technically I don't need to invest anymore, but we don't even need all of her income, so what else am I going to do with all the extra?
What is your prediction for the end of this year and the end of next? It’s easy to not make a prediction and then mock those who do. Yes, I get that you are a permabull, but what is your ye target for 2024?
I don't make short-term predictions...that's the point of this. It should never be done as the market is too unpredictable, and it for sure should never be done with the certainty that Igy displayed there. He decided to draw a line in the sand with asking agip to bookmark the page, so I am just helping him with his record keeping. Had he not done so, I would not be looking at this closely. It should also be noted that he COULD have been proven right. I'm just looking at the data and I would have recorded him bring either right or wrong.
Also, I am not a permabull. I am a permainvestor. I am a permarealist. History tells us that on average the stock market goes up 73% of calendar years. That's good enough for me to invest consistently. When the market is down, stocks are on sale, so I don't even mind that. Investing should ONLY be seen as putting money away today that you don't need today so that you have money later when you no longer have an income. That's it.
So, what is my prediction of the stock market in 2024? I don't make predictions over such a short period of time. I will continue to invest like clockwork no matter what the market does even though I am retired my wife still works, so we invest while either of us is investing. Technically I don't need to invest anymore, but we don't even need all of her income, so what else am I going to do with all the extra?
Looks like we're still 4%ish below the SP500 all-time high.
On we go.
Sure, markets same now as 2.1 years ago, but consider that Nasdaq was on a 10-year massive rise up to that point, and in fact, doubled in just 2 years from the pandemic era sell-off to the all-time-high 2.1 years ago. So, giving back a little bit is not that surprising, and the fact that it has clawed its way back to almost a full rebound is no small feat.
I'd love to see the market close the gap to reclaim everything lost on that downturn (and set a new ATH). An impressive run, and even more so if it can go up from here.
Looks like we're still 4%ish below the SP500 all-time high.
On we go.
Sure, markets same now as 2.1 years ago, but consider that Nasdaq was on a 10-year massive rise up to that point, and in fact, doubled in just 2 years from the pandemic era sell-off to the all-time-high 2.1 years ago. So, giving back a little bit is not that surprising, and the fact that it has clawed its way back to almost a full rebound is no small feat.
I'd love to see the market close the gap to reclaim everything lost on that downturn (and set a new ATH). An impressive run, and even more so if it can go up from here.
It WILL go up from here. When? Eventually. That's just how it goes. Several steps forward, a step or two back, several steps forward, a step or two back, repeat.
Sure, markets same now as 2.1 years ago, but consider that Nasdaq was on a 10-year massive rise up to that point, and in fact, doubled in just 2 years from the pandemic era sell-off to the all-time-high 2.1 years ago. So, giving back a little bit is not that surprising, and the fact that it has clawed its way back to almost a full rebound is no small feat.
I'd love to see the market close the gap to reclaim everything lost on that downturn (and set a new ATH). An impressive run, and even more so if it can go up from here.
It WILL go up from here. When? Eventually. That's just how it goes. Several steps forward, a step or two back, several steps forward, a step or two back, repeat.
Some may care about the RATE at which it goes up. If it trades flat for the next five years, it won't be outpacing inflation and the money when withdrawn will have less buying power than when it was invested. So, in that case, maybe a CD or bonds would be a better investment. And frankly, a market that takes 10 years to eventually go up would certainly not be the most profitable place to park one's money.
Maybe those things aren't important to some, but clearly, other investors are involved to the extent so as to balance their ratios of cash to equities to fixed return investments to bonds, etc.
Likewise, many investors are prone to bias their portfolio towards particular sectors they feel may outperform and away from those that are thought to underperform.
It WILL go up from here. When? Eventually. That's just how it goes. Several steps forward, a step or two back, several steps forward, a step or two back, repeat.
Some may care about the RATE at which it goes up. If it trades flat for the next five years, it won't be outpacing inflation and the money when withdrawn will have less buying power than when it was invested. So, in that case, maybe a CD or bonds would be a better investment. And frankly, a market that takes 10 years to eventually go up would certainly not be the most profitable place to park one's money.
Maybe those things aren't important to some, but clearly, other investors are involved to the extent so as to balance their ratios of cash to equities to fixed return investments to bonds, etc.
Likewise, many investors are prone to bias their portfolio towards particular sectors they feel may outperform and away from those that are thought to underperform.
Over the last 85 years the market has never taken 10 years to go up outside of the 2000s. And that was followed by the 2010s which were incredible.
Every decade since the 1940s has provided a good return, besides the 2000s, with the 50s, the 80s, the 90s and the 2010s providing incredible returns.
Some may care about the RATE at which it goes up. If it trades flat for the next five years, it won't be outpacing inflation and the money when withdrawn will have less buying power than when it was invested. So, in that case, maybe a CD or bonds would be a better investment. And frankly, a market that takes 10 years to eventually go up would certainly not be the most profitable place to park one's money.
Maybe those things aren't important to some, but clearly, other investors are involved to the extent so as to balance their ratios of cash to equities to fixed return investments to bonds, etc.
Likewise, many investors are prone to bias their portfolio towards particular sectors they feel may outperform and away from those that are thought to underperform.
Over the last 85 years the market has never taken 10 years to go up outside of the 2000s. And that was followed by the 2010s which were incredible.
Every decade since the 1940s has provided a good return, besides the 2000s, with the 50s, the 80s, the 90s and the 2010s providing incredible returns.
Take a look at the '70s to see yet another 10-year stretch of market not going up, essentially flat.
And the sub-prime downturn of 2009 was a downturn of no less than 5-years until the S&P 500 returned to its previous level.
Again, the 70s were essentially flat, not a total return of 77% as you claim.
For example, see these milestones:
Jan 1, 1969 - 102.00 and 10 years later: Jan 1, 1979 - 99.71
Those are milestones. You are not including dividends which add about 35%.
Look at this graph (it includes dividends) - the 70s had 3 down years and 8 up years. And the up years were generally significantly up and outside of 1974 the down years were pretty mild.
Historically, a 10% annual total return for the S&P 500 has been the run-of-the-mill average. Investors often forget that the likely return is dependent on the starting valuation.
Based on data from 1928-2023, an S&P 500 at 1600 gets you there. Limiting to 1998-2023, it's 2400. pic.twitter.com/pbYglIZinF
Sally, you are misreading the chart, though you are correct that a flat ten year period as noted actually did gain a little bit when adding in the dividend reinvestment. But when you figure for inflation, it lost money - and quite a bit.
Here, simply use this calculator and set it to January 1969 through January, 1979. This is the 10 years I refered to in my previous post. You will find that even with dividends, it returned just 42%, and when adjusted for inflation, actually lost 25% of its value,
And I am copying and pasting the results as follows for that time period for a $100 starting investment:
$100 invested from Jan 1969 - Jan. 1979: Nominal Price Return: -2.25% Annualized: -0.23% Investment Grew To: $97.75 Nominal Total Return (with dividends reinvested): 42.88% Annualized: 3.63% Investment Grew To: $142.88 Inflation-Adjusted Price Return: -49.05% Annualized: -6.52% Investment Grew To: $50.95 Inflation-Adjusted Total Return (with dividends reinvested): -25.40% Annualized: -2.89% Investment Grew To: $74.60
I think the crucial takeaway here is that even though the 10 year investment did grow by almost 43%, and that was a mere 3.63%, which includes dividend reinvestment, it actually lost money due to inflation.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 98% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Feels good being up about 15% year while you’re down. hahahahah. Better get on a few more threads and tell lame stories about yourself from 40 years ago that weren’t impressive to people even then. Whatever makes you feel better ugly slow dork :D.
The only thing ratioed is your sentence for drug use. The judge will likely reduce your sentence with giving up booze, marijuana, and other deviant behavior. For God sake think of your family.