Down goes the Dow

Happy Thanksgiving all. I hope your trots went to plan and you are ready to close out this barnburner year with a Santa Claus rally. I had a good race and meal and am ready.

Here's something we should all be thankful for: A chart from a year ago showing a proprietary model's guess at how headline inflation would collapse in 2023. As preposterous as this chart might have looked a year ago...it's predictions have come close to the truth. The Fed's Inflation Now has headline CPI and PCE at basically zero right now, month over month.

Don't count your turkeys, but looks like we whipped inflation. Good for all of us!

He is a curmudgeon. He takes joy in the sorrows of others.

Agip - you do know what that graph shows - Look at right around the beginning of 2001 - it is 1.3% when Trump was presiding over the country - and quickly zooms up to over 9% under the 'stewardship' of Biden. Biden has been a clown president. He needs more time lounging at the beach. Let's bring back a real president.

I trust that everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. Mrs Igy still puts in the effort to produce a feast. I do what I can to help out, but it always and remains her show, and she is good at it. Later today my son and I will be going to the Boise State vs Air Force game. I’ll wave at you, I’ll be the guy with the blue hair and Elvis attire.

Have fun, Igy, and Elvis Jr., too.

true story:

The same guy wrote two of my favorite songs:

Elvis' and Fine Young Cannibals' Suspicious Minds

and

Willie Nelson's Always on My Mind

Esp the former - that song doesn't sound like anything else - such a strange and wonderful song. And is there a more melancholic song than Always on My Mind?

Mark James. 82 years old. Strange to think of these songwriters walking among us, hearing their music everywhere but virtually no one knows who they are or heard their name or what a difference they made to the lives of millions of people.

Sorry for jumbled syntax - heading out for a run. Bon week-end everyone.

The Constitution prohibits Obama from running for a third term. Same for Clinton.

Obama admin = Biden admin

Analysis crime. This guy picks three dates and says N=3 is meaningful. Note that the three dates are dot com crisis, great financial crisis and COVID. Very unusual times. Anyway, this predictor failed this time as stocks are charging higher. 262k views!

Mike Shell
@MikeWShell
Do you see what I see? When short-dated U.S. treasuries are elevated, what's the market telling us?

1:17 PM · May 20, 2023
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262.9K
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Stocks up 3% since this tweet but consumer discretionary stocks actually down a percent. So half credit.

But same store sales rebounded from negative to +4% just after she tweeted that, so no, the consumer is not spent out so only 1/4 credit.

Pomboy is a hoot if you don't know her - never saw a positive thing she can't turn into a clear harbinger of complete economic doom, but she is a good, exuberant writer and she has much more fun with her bearish brand than other stopped-clock prognosticators.

steph pomboy
@spomboy
Here's your "indefatigable" consumer...Weekly Same Store Sales just entered contraction. And that's BEFORE accounting for inflation.

10:02 AM · Jul 11, 2023
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412.1K
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This measure of the tightness or looseness of financial conditions says currently we are the loosest since Feb 2022. I think that runs counter to what many think to be true. I hear a lot about banks reluctant to loan, high interest rates restricting borrowing, fed quantitative tightening...So what's true? Tight or loose? Obviously equity investors looking for short term returns want conditions to be loose and loosening. And they may be.

chicagofed.org

National Financial Conditions Index: Current Data - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Link:www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/...

...and there it is. Inflation Now has its first prediction of outright deflation. Not disinflation...actual falling prices. negative 0.1% CPI for November. A lot of that is gasoline, which has been dropping like a rock, but also rents, which have rolled over. Good stuff, America.

anyway.

Here's Morgan Stanly from 5/23 admitting its bearish call in 12/22 was wrong, but doubling down and saying they were just early.

Market has risen 8% in the 6 months since this post. Oops.

Oof. Here's Jim Bianco on Oct 27, 2023 saying the October correction would continue because the VIX was low and people weren't running around screaming like chickens with their heads cut off.

Amazingly and poetically, that very day WAS THE LOW and we've rocketed up a mighty mighty 11% from that day. That's just a month! 11% in a month! Can't write it any better. What a business.

Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
The S&P 500 has now corrected 10% from its July 31 peak. This is the first such correction since the market bottomed on October 12, 2022.
I'm surprised I see no screaming red headlines about this. It tells me it is not viewed as a big deal.
Then ... the decline will continue until it becomes a big deal.

Oct 27, 2023
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541.9K
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what is the point you are trying to make?

I have a daily reading list that I find worthy of my time and attention. Zero Hedge is not among those. If you have something to say, I would be glad to hear it, Igy.

* Okay, if I lean far enough forward and squint, I can see ZeroHedge's assertion. Not easy to read without opening, though possible, so I get it (without clicking on it).

Igy loves to post crap and crappy charts from his fellow Permabears. They haven't been right in 15 years - best to just ignore.

Igy and his brethren don't make points. They just spew the same crap year after year after year after year. They are funny but not in a good way.