Down goes the Dow

Lordy Moses, my bad FAX up 3.5% today! Now that is a tech stock. Pretty sure they are using AI to select their EM bonds. :-)

Would be wild if emerging markets become hot again and lead again. They did for 10+ years at the turn of the century. So much cash would have to chase emerging, after they've been shunned for 10+ years.

The EM fund I use, EMXC, is leading the SP500 for 3m. Have to start somewhere.

3 months:

SP500: +1.9%

EMXC: +2.45%

Being a value investor I would much rather be in EM equities than DM. I do think we get lower relative rates, lower borrowing costs, and weaker dollar. Anyway at my cost basis my EM Bond CEFs should be a winner. If so, I plan to convert to an income stream once the NAV stabilizes.

FAX is a real winner ...trading at 12 in 1990 and around 2. MSFT at 0.79 cents in 1990 and now 327.

yeah I hear you. A stretch of value working would be very sweet. I would outpeform if that happened. The worst setup for me is 2023 when tech goes to the moon and nothing else does much. I do fine but lag 100 bps or so because of the value bent of my portfolio.

You should take a look at ticker DEM. Deep value emerging markets. Up 15% this year vs 6% for generic emerging markets.

Portfolio PE is around 7!

yield 7%

It's a lot of slow movers...banks, energy, telecom so beware on that front.

Sally, a savvy investor, say like your wife, would understand that is not a thorough analysis. Part of the decline in share price is the return of principal. Please congratulate your wife on the purchase of MSFT at 79 cents a share. Hopefully she was just as savvy in getting a pre-nuptial agreement.

My clients’ owned a good number of shares of DEM. So some experience with this good fund. My foray in to EM will probably be limited to my current EM bond CEFs.

You have a real winner ...

“So the consumer is too broke to shop at Walmart, and people are gonna try to tell me that somehow things are still bullish for $AAPL and $NVDA? Do you people hear yourselves speak?”

—RJR Capital

Image:i.postimg.cc/7Pc0BP3p/IMG-0285.jpg

A picture is worth a thousand words.

a PE picture shows several hundred thousand saps

Anyone citing one of these formerly reliable indicators in the future will have to say 'almost' or 'every time but 2023.'

Here, heavy truck sales as a forward indicator of stock market doom. Didn't work this time. Stocks 8% higher than when the tweet was sent out.

Game of Trades
@GameofTrades_
A major warning signal has flashed for the markets
Everytime this indicator collapses, equities fall rapidly

1:00 PM · May 17, 2023
·
381K
Views

Kudos to GS for a very accurate economic prediction a year ago. Pretty much spot-on. Worth a click-through to read the details of the prediction.

GOLDMAN SACHS: Global Economics Analyst: Macro Outlook 2023: "The US should narrowly avoid recession…"

11:31 AM · Nov 16, 2022

That’s a second level metric. Only a fool would think that is more important than price.

CPI and PCE both plunging every day.

Down to a run rate of...2.6%. Holy patootie. Amazing stuff. Soft landing almost guaranteed.

Core rates 3.0-3.5% so that's still too high. But those are falling too.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 94% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Heard a good one today in one of NY Time's feature stories - "Immaculate Disinflation".

LOL.

They define it as getting inflation down without the usual upsurge in unemployment. Miraculously!

I missed this yesterday, but just read about it today. Can't say that I'd want to be holding any Tesla stock after knowing this.