Down goes the Dow

The reasons they have given don’t apply to me, or are otherwise not compelling because they apply equally (from my perspective) to 1x funds

Risk has to be a part of any investing you do. I am risk-averse and yet, I invest heavily and without interruption because history tells me that the stock market will continue to go up over time. Also, ALL of the powerful nations in the world put their thumb on the scale to CONSISTENTLY help the stock market...because they value wealthy people. Until this changes (and it won't in my lifetime), investing heavily and in an uninterrpted manner is the best idea.

So, that said, why not take out a loan against my paid-for house and dump that into the stock market or even JUST into the S&P 500 or even doing what you are suggesting? Well, like I said, I am risk-averse. I paid off my house early because I have attacked financial independence from many angles. It is never a good idea to put all of your eggs in one basket. ALSO, greed is one of the seven deadly sins, and while that might be kind of arbitrary, I think it is good to look at greed in that way. When you chase the potentially most greedy thing you can chase, you put yourself into a position to greatly fail. It also is just not a pleasant personality trait. Opt for pleasant. Opt for integrity.

Pay off debt. Own your house outright before retiring. Invest 15% or more of your income while working into diversified stock mutual funds within retirement vehicles. Have at least 3 YEARS of funds liquid outside of the market while in retirement to handle expenses in case of an extended market downturn.

Of course I am talking about my own situation and purposes.

Yes I have thought about that, but a 3x etf is easier and less complicated.

Got a link to where he went into it?

Taking a loan on a paid-off asset is not the same as buying a 3x etf for cash.

And of course not going in 100%. All I am talking about is replacing a regular 1x allocation with 3x, when holding for a minimum of 15 or 20 years, and actually never having to sell.

If you absolutely MUST invest in that risky way, then do these things first:

1) 15% of your income into stock mutual funds within retirement accounts.

2) Have a MILLION dollars or more in those retirement funds.

3) Own your house outright.

Got the above 3 things going on, then invest beyond that any way you want.

I have been in VOO for many years, and rode out the recent drawdown just fine, not having touched a thing. In fact I kept dca’ing in the whole way, and actually put more in. No sweat.

I've done it and have done it over very long timeframes. The only thing I can tell you is this, and then I'm done.

I would pay heed to everything already mentioned in this discussion, I would due your due diligence and read a lot about it on the net or elsewhere (and there is a fair amount), and if still interested, I would start small and build positions gradually.

I remember reading one advisor recommend not to double down on leveraged ETFs - if you are in the red, don't employ the tactic of buying shares at a lower price in order to bring your average cost basis down. I think that is good advice.

Good luck and let us know how it works for you.

Good news for the markets, and less pressure for another rate hike by the Fed:

cnbc.com

Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2023 — in one chart

https://www.facebook.com/CNBC

The consumer price index continued a steady decline in October on the back of lower gasoline prices.

Open link

Thanks, I will keep researching. So far I have found no advantage to being in a 1x vs a 3x for myself, over the long term.

Flagpole, I am fine, thanks. I don’t need my current 1x allocation, it would be a straight buy-sell. First I think I will do it in a Roth IRA, that seems like the best vehicle if I never plan on touching it. The best and easiest for succession and tax planning.

Other than that thanks to everyone for the discussion, now get back to that training. :^)

Nah.

Leon Cooperman expects the S&P 500 to plunge 22% and the US economy to slump into recession.
The billionaire investor warns the benchmark stock index could drop as low as 3,100 points.
Cooperman predicts stubborn inflation and more rate hikes, and worries about the national debt.
2/28/23

markets.businessinsider.com

Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman predicts the S&P 500 will plunge 22% - and warns a US recession lies ahead

Theron Mohamed

Cooperman is bracing for stubborn inflation, higher interest rates, more pressure on stocks, and an inevitable recession.

Open link

This one worked very well. The SP500 bottomed almost exactly when the 10 year yield peaked out in mid-Oct 2023. And as the 10 year yield 'blinked' and fell, markets rose 10%.

Have to remember this one from Yardeni a year ago.

Ed Yardeni:
Markets tend to bottom, regardless of Fed pause, hike, or pivot when 10-Yr yield peaks and blinks. Many times has Fed kept hiking, 10-Yr yield has fallen and S&P 500 bottoms and rallies. We believe market bottom was 3577 and look for retest of 4305 S&P 500 $SPX $SPY

11/16/22

...until now.

Mac10
@SuburbanDrone
The equal weight S&P 500 just entered its sixth death cross since 2009.
There were no times the S&P 500 didn't implode after.

11:20 AM · Jun 5, 2023
·
190.6K
Views

3100 is more like a 33% drop, but who cares if it does ... the markets will bounce back like they always do.

Also, did this guy predict the market's resurgence the last month or so? If not, why listen to him now? These Permabears are one-trick ponies always claiming the end of the world and when that doesn't happen, we just move on. Everyone forgets about his stupid prediction.

I think most of these guys are financial advisers/brokers. They get paid to offer advise, and this guy is head of a financial advising firm. Omega Advisors. They probably make these public forecasts for publicity for their firm and to try to draw in new clients.

Is it worth it. I don't know, Not according to these little dudes:

They look strong.

Igy, really? That little turd of that fund you adore is down 10% YTD. Meanwhile, AAPL up to 190 from 125 at beginning of year. MSFT up to 275 from 227 months ago. Please don't say you still buying Hussman. You have to be broke.