My own thinking is that bonds, particularly investment grade bonds at the margins, closer to junk than treasury grade, I mean, but BBB or better, represent an enormous long term opportunity at the moment.
What is your basis for this thinking?
And what do you think about individual corporates vs funds?
Not too long ago S&P 500 at 676. Yes 676 in March 2009.
All time high of 4796 in 1/3/22.
Currently at 4,500.
We might see new all time high before year-end.
Those Permabears who got out around 2009 or around that time went from driving a Bugatti to a 1987 AMC Pacer. Just kidding.
The low intraday, was 3/9/2009 at 666. Closed higher on the day. FASB changed the accounting rules where mortgage bonds were marked to-held value rather than mark-to-market. Banks immediately became less insolvent.
Fed's inflation now forecast shows a big plunge today in the all-important core PCE measurement....down to a run rate of 3.0%. My understanding is that the Fed thinks that is the most reliable inflation measurement and it's been stuck at 3.5% until today.
GDP Now updates tomorrow...if we get a 2% growth rate with a sub-3% inflation rate....total goldilocks environment for stocks.
Fun piece is that SS will rise by 3.2% next year and it looks like inflation will be lower than that. More money for old folk to spend! Between that and these high interest rates...they are living large, supporting the economy.
Fed's inflation now forecast shows a big plunge today in the all-important core PCE measurement....down to a run rate of 3.0%. My understanding is that the Fed thinks that is the most reliable inflation measurement and it's been stuck at 3.5% until today.
GDP Now updates tomorrow...if we get a 2% growth rate with a sub-3% inflation rate....total goldilocks environment for stocks.
Fun piece is that SS will rise by 3.2% next year and it looks like inflation will be lower than that. More money for old folk to spend! Between that and these high interest rates...they are living large, supporting the economy.
That might be stretching it a bit :p.
But the way things are going today it might be prudent to have someone do a wellness check on Igy..
Igy, I've got one that might get you back in the game.
Bitcoin, which is up a whopping +31% in the past month, just had a dip today of a few percent. This might be a good point of entry, an opportunity to build a position.
You can get exposure right via some bitcoin trust, trading on NY stock exchange - GBTC.
Igy, I've got one that might get you back in the game.
Bitcoin, which is up a whopping +31% in the past month, just had a dip today of a few percent. This might be a good point of entry, an opportunity to build a position.
You can get exposure right via some bitcoin trust, trading on NY stock exchange - GBTC.
Better yet, I think you should get back into that fruity idea Beyond Meat. It was up 6% today....a most shorted name. Guaranteed winner, at least today. :-)
Igy, I've got one that might get you back in the game.
Bitcoin, which is up a whopping +31% in the past month, just had a dip today of a few percent. This might be a good point of entry, an opportunity to build a position.
You can get exposure right via some bitcoin trust, trading on NY stock exchange - GBTC.
Better yet, I think you should get back into that fruity idea Beyond Meat. It was up 6% today....a most shorted name. Guaranteed winner, at least today. :-)
Ha, ha. Actually my largest position in EM Bond CEFs at times today outperforming the NASDAQ. I have been adding to my short position since CPI print.
Well, it's not anymore, and is lagging the Nasdaq and S&P500 for the day. And over the last 5 days, it's greatly underperformed, to say the least.
And that's the good one? I mean, better than the shorting the market positions?
As it turned out FAX outperformed the S&P 500 1.97% to 1.91%. EMD the underperformer up 1.32%. Even with my triple leverage short position, my account eked out a gain.
Well, it's not anymore, and is lagging the Nasdaq and S&P500 for the day. And over the last 5 days, it's greatly underperformed, to say the least.
And that's the good one? I mean, better than the shorting the market positions?
As it turned out FAX outperformed the S&P 500 1.97% to 1.91%. EMD the underperformer up 1.32%. Even with my triple leverage short position, my account eked out a gain.
We’ll see how it goes.
Fax went up probably just because next week is the ex-dividend date and they offer 13% annual dividend yield. Otherwise, hasn't really done much in the last month, and much worse on longer timeframes.
“Fax went up probably just because next week is the ex-dividend date and they offer 13% annual dividend yield. Otherwise, hasn't really done much in the last month, and much worse on longer timeframes.”
Yields down, price up. TLT where the duration is longer was up 2.27% on the day, nearly as much as the NASDAQ. I am up 12.37% on my FAX position, and at my cost basis a 14.34% yield.
Remember a couple weeks ago I told you a client called to panic sell? And I said it was a good sign to buy? And here we are. Just almost but not quite at 52 week highs.
Remember a couple weeks ago I told you a client called to panic sell? And I said it was a good sign to buy? And here we are. Just almost but not quite at 52 week highs.
Remember a couple weeks ago I told you a client called to panic sell? And I said it was a good sign to buy? And here we are. Just almost but not quite at 52 week highs.
Let me ask you guys, especially Flagpole, this question:
If you believe with such certainty in the annual gain of, say, the S&P, why don’t you buy 3x leveraged products instead of straight funds, or just use options?
Let me ask you guys, especially Flagpole, this question:
If you believe with such certainty in the annual gain of, say, the S&P, why don’t you buy 3x leveraged products instead of straight funds, or just use options?
No one here believes in the annual gain of any index but over time it/they will goes up. Leverage is playing with fire. It can provide significant gains but also provide significant losses. Flagpole, like many here, are risk-averse.
Let me ask you guys, especially Flagpole, this question:
If you believe with such certainty in the annual gain of, say, the S&P, why don’t you buy 3x leveraged products instead of straight funds, or just use options?
Many folks in this thread have discussed their trading in leveraged products from time to time.