TLT (very long treasuries) is up 8% in a couple weeks. Wow. People are racing to lock in these high yields for years.
I remember stories about people who did this at key points and enjoyed high returns for decades.
Remember I bought TLT 3-4 weeks ago but then stopped out with a $20 loss? That stop cost me. I did not re-enter. Although I have been selling short-term bonds and buying intermediate bonds hand over fist.
Global bond yields down, along with Dollar, back up double digits on my entire EM Bonds CEFs with yield at 14%.
Igy - you only have like 7 weeks for the S & P to fall more than 30% and it is moving in the wrong direction. Would you agree you made a bad call on that?
Global bond yields down, along with Dollar, back up double digits on my entire EM Bonds CEFs with yield at 14%.
Igy - you only have like 7 weeks for the S & P to fall more than 30% and it is moving in the wrong direction. Would you agree you made a bad call on that?
The S & P will be closer to 5500 than it is to 3,000. You really whiffed on that, yes? Maybe put your tail between your legs and run off and hide for a bit?
TLT (very long treasuries) is up 8% in a couple weeks. Wow. People are racing to lock in these high yields for years.
I remember stories about people who did this at key points and enjoyed high returns for decades.
Remember I bought TLT 3-4 weeks ago but then stopped out with a $20 loss? That stop cost me. I did not re-enter. Although I have been selling short-term bonds and buying intermediate bonds hand over fist.
Lots to consider here, but as for me, I am seeing reason to favor equities going forward, so I am gradually moving out of the fixed assets. The fact that their are such attractive yields being offered will be something of a deterrent on the equity sector, I suppose, nonetheless.
Igy - you only have like 7 weeks for the S & P to fall more than 30% and it is moving in the wrong direction. Would you agree you made a bad call on that?
The S & P will be closer to 5500 than it is to 3,000. You really whiffed on that, yes? Maybe put your tail between your legs and run off and hide for a bit?
Some months ago I stated here it was unlikely to happen before year end.
The S & P will be closer to 5500 than it is to 3,000. You really whiffed on that, yes? Maybe put your tail between your legs and run off and hide for a bit?
Some months ago I stated here it was unlikely to happen before year end.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
"Most investors believe that all of those other FAANG stocks will grow faster than $AAPL," says Toni Sacconaghi. "@Apple is a great company but what do you pay at this point where it declined in revenue last year and probably won't grow much in revenue in 2024."
"Most investors believe that all of those other FAANG stocks will grow faster than $AAPL," says Toni Sacconaghi. "@Apple is a great company but what do you pay at this point where it declined in revenue last year and probably won't grow much in revenue in 2024."
Tough to say. iPhone 15 sales were doing better than expected but sales of Macs and Laptops dropped a bit year over year as did wearables (airpods, watches). Services were a bright spot.
Seems to me with all the new technology and cloud based computing changing things so drastically, a strong services division is very important. And as important as their iPhone sales are, the iPhone 15 sales this quarter did better than their iPhone 14 sales did for the same quarter last year.
China sales, a big worry with Huawei competition and Chinese govt. mandates about not buying iPhone for govt. workers, still managed to be nothing worse than flat y.o.y., which is encouraging.
Stock price is not much changed from where it was just before earnings announcement. This big behemoth may not have blown anyone away, but it pretty much held its own, imo.
I know. I don't even have to click on it - the same trend is exactly what I was looking at.
But it does feel different this time and I say that because with today's job numbers and some recent indications that inflation is easing, it looks like Fed may consider easing off of the rate hikes. That would be all the markets need to hear and I think we would see renewed and prolonged upside.
I am betting it is more of the same, and the Fed is more likely considering recession. Anyway, shorts up to 8%. I do think we will test 4,400, so willing to go up to 10%. I will reconsider if there is a strong move above that line.
I am betting it is more of the same, and the Fed is more likely considering recession. Anyway, shorts up to 8%. I do think we will test 4,400, so willing to go up to 10%. I will reconsider if there is a strong move above that line.
You're probably right, but what would be the driver for the downside? I don't see it. A recession seems quite unlikely now and a slowdown is understood and factored in, and the Fed already showed its hand as of yesterday. Again, you're probably right on another leg down, but I don't see a justification.
As for your short position, there was an old Swing Trader rule, if you register a 15% loss on a trade, cut your losses and don't look back.
"Most investors believe that all of those other FAANG stocks will grow faster than $AAPL," says Toni Sacconaghi. "@Apple is a great company but what do you pay at this point where it declined in revenue last year and probably won't grow much in revenue in 2024."
Tough to say. iPhone 15 sales were doing better than expected but sales of Macs and Laptops dropped a bit year over year as did wearables (airpods, watches). Services were a bright spot.
Seems to me with all the new technology and cloud based computing changing things so drastically, a strong services division is very important. And as important as their iPhone sales are, the iPhone 15 sales this quarter did better than their iPhone 14 sales did for the same quarter last year.
China sales, a big worry with Huawei competition and Chinese govt. mandates about not buying iPhone for govt. workers, still managed to be nothing worse than flat y.o.y., which is encouraging.
Stock price is not much changed from where it was just before earnings announcement. This big behemoth may not have blown anyone away, but it pretty much held its own, imo.
the fact that apple has negative revenue growth is very troubling. And that's not a one-quarter thing. It's been happening for a while.
Unless they have some new product or service around the corner the stock is in trouble. It has a PE of 30 and a price to sales of 7! A company with no sales growth can't maintain that kind of multiple for long.
Tough to say. iPhone 15 sales were doing better than expected but sales of Macs and Laptops dropped a bit year over year as did wearables (airpods, watches). Services were a bright spot.
Seems to me with all the new technology and cloud based computing changing things so drastically, a strong services division is very important. And as important as their iPhone sales are, the iPhone 15 sales this quarter did better than their iPhone 14 sales did for the same quarter last year.
China sales, a big worry with Huawei competition and Chinese govt. mandates about not buying iPhone for govt. workers, still managed to be nothing worse than flat y.o.y., which is encouraging.
Stock price is not much changed from where it was just before earnings announcement. This big behemoth may not have blown anyone away, but it pretty much held its own, imo.
the fact that apple has negative revenue growth is very troubling. And that's not a one-quarter thing. It's been happening for a while.
Unless they have some new product or service around the corner the stock is in trouble. It has a PE of 30 and a price to sales of 7! A company with no sales growth can't maintain that kind of multiple for long.
I think i saw that this is the fourth quarter of declining revenue numbers, albeit small.
It's stock price rise has faltered and that's probably why. We'll see.
EDIT: this is their fourth consecutive quarter of declining sales, not revenue.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
“Quick update FYI - valuations and internals still a trap door. Nothing rules out improvement but we're not there, and we'll align with observables. My impression of last week - a furious "clearing rally" coupled with pent-up "pivot rally" exuberance amid economic deterioration.”
“Quick update FYI - valuations and internals still a trap door. Nothing rules out improvement but we're not there, and we'll align with observables. My impression of last week - a furious "clearing rally" coupled with pent-up "pivot rally" exuberance amid economic deterioration.”
John Hussman, 11/5/2023 on X
You are quoting some guy whose famed Hussman Strategic fund is down 10% YTD, while S & P up 15% YTD and NASDAQ up 37% YTD. Good one Igy! LOL.
