Druckenmiller Says He Has ‘Massive’ Bullish Bets on 2-Year Notes ‘I started to get really nervous’ about the economy recently He says he’s confident the yield curve will keep steepening
Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Well, we know his EPS call was wrong for Q3. It's currently at $189.20!
Well, of course!
The S&P 500 could still drop to 3,000 by the end of the year, so he still COULD be right about the level (not for the reason he said though, and he admits that). We will see where it ends up. I'll report.
Well, we know his EPS call was wrong for Q3. It's currently at $189.20!
Well, of course!
The S&P 500 could still drop to 3,000 by the end of the year, so he still COULD be right about the level (not for the reason he said though, and he admits that). We will see where it ends up. I'll report.
Actually not correct on your part for a couple of reasons, Q4 EPS will not be known until mid-February. And “hard to see much above 3,000” than 3,991 is quite a bit different than what you have inferred.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
“As the FOMC was voting to do nothing, the Atlanta Fed cut: It sliced its Q4 real GDP growth estimate to a stall-speed of +1.24% SAAR from +2.26%. The third quarter spurt is yesterday’s story and priced in long ago.”
That's how I would do it - nibble and then build on the position if more favorable conditions evolve.
I bought another small lot at 4,185. My belief is is the upper end of this move is 4,225-4,250. And any enthusiasm is Fed, Apple, and jobs dependent.
Powell speaking, markets liking what they hear, SNP 500 rising through the high for the day and well into the upper end of the short term trend you noted.
The S&P 500 could still drop to 3,000 by the end of the year, so he still COULD be right about the level (not for the reason he said though, and he admits that). We will see where it ends up. I'll report.
Actually not correct on your part for a couple of reasons, Q4 EPS will not be known until mid-February. And “hard to see much above 3,000” than 3,991 is quite a bit different than what you have inferred.
WRONG! You predicted an S&P 500 of at or near 3,000 by end of year. Can't weasel out of it. You will either be wrong with that prediction or right. It's a black or white issue. You don't get to spew any nonsense when it is time to try say otherwise. End of December will be here soon enough, and you will be labeled as having been right or wrong. I'll report.
Music interlude: The Beatles just released a short documentary on how they put together their last song, which releases tomorrow. I'm just a weepy mess here.
Now and Then's eventful journey to fruition took place over five decades and is the product of conversations and collaborations between the four Beatles that...
I bought another small lot at 4,185. My belief is is the upper end of this move is 4,225-4,250. And any enthusiasm is Fed, Apple, and jobs dependent.
Powell speaking, markets liking what they hear, SNP 500 rising through the high for the day and well into the upper end of the short term trend you noted.
Boosted my short position to 5.5% with most purchased above 4,240. Plenty of ammo left, but likely to reduce holding and protect gains with a strong reaction to Apple report. On the other hand, a negative reaction will reload up to ~7.5%.
“I have kids, I have grandkids. Child care is not emergency spending. It is a priority that may be should be on the table or not. But we are spending like drunken sailors,” says billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller on CNBC.
Music interlude: The Beatles just released a short documentary on how they put together their last song, which releases tomorrow. I'm just a weepy mess here.
now and then was one of my favorite songs 3 years ago and was one of the first songs i learned on guitar and piano. i can no longer find the original piano d...
Powell speaking, markets liking what they hear, SNP 500 rising through the high for the day and well into the upper end of the short term trend you noted.
Boosted my short position to 5.5% with most purchased above 4,240. Plenty of ammo left, but likely to reduce holding and protect gains with a strong reaction to Apple report. On the other hand, a negative reaction will reload up to ~7.5%.
Nice.
I bought some more Microsoft this morning.
Tomorrow's the big day with Apple earnings. You have to consider how much it's sold off in the last few weeks, so a stellar earnings report could signal a big buying spree.
Likewise, I've got a lot of ammo left as well - well, at least relative to where I was a year ago - and will load up if I get the chance with a big pullback. Otherwise, gradually and slowly add on the way up.
Boosted my short position to 5.5% with most purchased above 4,240. Plenty of ammo left, but likely to reduce holding and protect gains with a strong reaction to Apple report. On the other hand, a negative reaction will reload up to ~7.5%.
Nice.
I bought some more Microsoft this morning.
Tomorrow's the big day with Apple earnings. You have to consider how much it's sold off in the last few weeks, so a stellar earnings report could signal a big buying spree.
Likewise, I've got a lot of ammo left as well - well, at least relative to where I was a year ago - and will load up if I get the chance with a big pullback. Otherwise, gradually and slowly add on the way up.
My positioning is mirror image. The EM Bond CEFs position tracks differently than equities, via interest rates and dollar. Yet technology tracks interest rates closely, so hedges somewhat the risk of short the sector.
Tomorrow's the big day with Apple earnings. You have to consider how much it's sold off in the last few weeks, so a stellar earnings report could signal a big buying spree.
Likewise, I've got a lot of ammo left as well - well, at least relative to where I was a year ago - and will load up if I get the chance with a big pullback. Otherwise, gradually and slowly add on the way up.
My positioning is mirror image. The EM Bond CEFs position tracks differently than equities, via interest rates and dollar. Yet technology tracks interest rates closely, so hedges somewhat the risk of short the sector.
That's kind of clever - hedging both sides of interest rate hikes. Never would have thought of that.
My positioning is mirror image. The EM Bond CEFs position tracks differently than equities, via interest rates and dollar. Yet technology tracks interest rates closely, so hedges somewhat the risk of short the sector.
That's kind of clever - hedging both sides of interest rate hikes. Never would have thought of that.
As you know it is more complicated than that, but not surprising that with rates lower most bonds were up with the tech sector today.
Music interlude: The Beatles just released a short documentary on how they put together their last song, which releases tomorrow. I'm just a weepy mess here.
I like how everyone always wonders "omg why did the Beatles split up, it's such a mystery!" and meanwhile Paul and everyone else close to the band is like "literally Yoko"