does it? Who knows. That's just 10%ish down from the 52-week high. Hard to call that serious. The average year has a 14% correction. Have to get to at least average before we call it serious, right?
Plus November and December have always been really good months. August/Sept have always been bad and we survived those months still standing.
most of the underlying data are fine to very good. Inflation moderating, corporate profits growing, economy absolutely surging, consumers spending.
But stocks look 6-12+ months ahead and they are worried about something, no doubt. Or maybe it's just the wars. And the pretty enticing option of getting 5-6% just to wait out the wars.
does it? Who knows. That's just 10%ish down from the 52-week high. Hard to call that serious. The average year has a 14% correction. Have to get to at least average before we call it serious, right?
Plus November and December have always been really good months. August/Sept have always been bad and we survived those months still standing.
In 2018 the S&P 500 was down 19% in the last quarter. In regards to our bet, if repeated, that would be good for me.
Good to see you out of the bunker after a couple of up days. :-)
Market pumping again! Not quite at the 3300 level or lower like you said would’ve happened by now. Looks to be about 4400 and probably ATH by Dec 24! Idiot! Lmao. Giant tile teeth and no real accomplishments, now you can add bad “retard permabear” to the list. :D
Sold some SOXS lots up 32%. Giant grin with my tile teeth.
Market pumping again! Not quite at the 3300 level or lower like you said would’ve happened by now. Looks to be about 4400 and probably ATH by Dec 24! Idiot! Lmao. Giant tile teeth and no real accomplishments, now you can add bad “retard permabear” to the list. :D
Sold some SOXS lots up 32%. Giant grin with my tile teeth.
Rosenberg is always good for a laugh and a snigger.
From a year ago, just before the market rallied 20%+.
I dunno, DR, maybe we DID say 'fight the fed' and we won.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie How can we be near any bottom in the stock market when it’s so abundantly clear that Powell wants asset values to deflate? Notice how the bulls no longer say “don’t fight the Fed”!
3:30 PM · Oct 19, 2022
He’ll keep calling for a recession and in 5 years when we finally have one, he’ll claim victory. From the standpoint of making money, Economists are worthless.
*US FISCAL-YEAR BUDGET GAP WIDENS 23% TO $1.7T ON REVENUE DROP
pretty ridiculous that no serious politicians in DC want anything to do with trying to fix this. The Rs talk about it, but just want to throw flames around - they aren't serious. And the Ds won't even talk about it. Shameful leadership.
Rosenberg is always good for a laugh and a snigger.
From a year ago, just before the market rallied 20%+.
I dunno, DR, maybe we DID say 'fight the fed' and we won.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie How can we be near any bottom in the stock market when it’s so abundantly clear that Powell wants asset values to deflate? Notice how the bulls no longer say “don’t fight the Fed”!
3:30 PM · Oct 19, 2022
He’ll keep calling for a recession and in 5 years when we finally have one, he’ll claim victory. From the standpoint of making money, Economists are worthless.
Agip always posts predictions from so-called "experts" and they are wrong 90% of the time but no one keeps a tally of all the wrong predictions by experts. No, we all forget about these "expert" predictions and move on until one "expert" makes his or her 100the prediction and it actually comes true and he is lauded as a genius.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 17% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 73% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 66% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
*US FISCAL-YEAR BUDGET GAP WIDENS 23% TO $1.7T ON REVENUE DROP
pretty ridiculous that no serious politicians in DC want anything to do with trying to fix this. The Rs talk about it, but just want to throw flames around - they aren't serious. And the Ds won't even talk about it. Shameful leadership.
Agreed. They are blowing it up, economically and socially. And they are all responsible. You can throw in all the highly paid bureaucrats.
He’ll keep calling for a recession and in 5 years when we finally have one, he’ll claim victory. From the standpoint of making money, Economists are worthless.
Agip always posts predictions from so-called "experts" and they are wrong 90% of the time but no one keeps a tally of all the wrong predictions by experts. No, we all forget about these "expert" predictions and move on until one "expert" makes his or her 100the prediction and it actually comes true and he is lauded as a genius.
that is the game, agreed. Make 99 bad predictions and you suffer no consequence. But if the 100th call is correct...for the next 10 years you are called 'the analyst who predicted the crash of 'XX' And that's what these analysts are hoping for - just to get one big one right, eventually, and cash in on that for a long time.
It's a terribly stupid game the press plays.
This post was edited 19 seconds after it was posted.
Agip always posts predictions from so-called "experts" and they are wrong 90% of the time but no one keeps a tally of all the wrong predictions by experts. No, we all forget about these "expert" predictions and move on until one "expert" makes his or her 100the prediction and it actually comes true and he is lauded as a genius.
that is the game, agreed. Make 99 bad predictions and you suffer no consequence. But if the 100th call is correct...for the next 10 years you are called 'the analyst who predicted the crash of 'XX' And that's what these analysts are hoping for - just to get one big one right, eventually, and cash in on that for a long time.
It's a terribly stupid game the press plays.
You must realize that Wall Street predominantly predicts an up market, and rarely, if ever, a down market. Much of what they designate as research is colored to support institutional sales or gin up retail sales. There was quite a bit of wealth lost 2000-2016 with few consequences, especially for the Fed. This time around there is plenty of blame to go around, and the finger pointing has only started.
that is the game, agreed. Make 99 bad predictions and you suffer no consequence. But if the 100th call is correct...for the next 10 years you are called 'the analyst who predicted the crash of 'XX' And that's what these analysts are hoping for - just to get one big one right, eventually, and cash in on that for a long time.
It's a terribly stupid game the press plays.
You must realize that Wall Street predominantly predicts an up market, and rarely, if ever, a down market. Much of what they designate as research is colored to support institutional sales or gin up retail sales. There was quite a bit of wealth lost 2000-2016 with few consequences, especially for the Fed. This time around there is plenty of blame to go around, and the finger pointing has only started.
well ok but fact is the market goes up 3/4 of years. Therefore assuming every year will be an up year means you have the wind at your back...you are playing on the same side as the house. I mean trying to predict annual performance of the stock market is stupid, but if you have to do it...best to just say it always will go up. A 75% hit rate is not too shabby in the prediction world.
You must realize that Wall Street predominantly predicts an up market, and rarely, if ever, a down market. Much of what they designate as research is colored to support institutional sales or gin up retail sales. There was quite a bit of wealth lost 2000-2016 with few consequences, especially for the Fed. This time around there is plenty of blame to go around, and the finger pointing has only started.
well ok but fact is the market goes up 3/4 of years. Therefore assuming every year will be an up year means you have the wind at your back...you are playing on the same side as the house. I mean trying to predict annual performance of the stock market is stupid, but if you have to do it...best to just say it always will go up. A 75% hit rate is not too shabby in the prediction world.
I get all of that, but where was all of Wall Street in 2021 before the long bond was cut in half. Or, the systemic risk on the books at banks, and the Fed. Fed.
well ok but fact is the market goes up 3/4 of years. Therefore assuming every year will be an up year means you have the wind at your back...you are playing on the same side as the house. I mean trying to predict annual performance of the stock market is stupid, but if you have to do it...best to just say it always will go up. A 75% hit rate is not too shabby in the prediction world.
I get all of that, but where was all of Wall Street in 2021 before the long bond was cut in half. Or, the systemic risk on the books at banks, and the Fed. Fed.
that's where the "25" in the 75% hit rate comes in. So caveat emptor.
but to be fair, not even the brilliant bond market, which everyone says is way smarter than the stock market...completely and totally missed the surge in inflation and resultant hike in interest rates. Predicting these things is pretty much impossible.
I get all of that, but where was all of Wall Street in 2021 before the long bond was cut in half. Or, the systemic risk on the books at banks, and the Fed. Fed.
that's where the "25" in the 75% hit rate comes in. So caveat emptor.
but to be fair, not even the brilliant bond market, which everyone says is way smarter than the stock market...completely and totally missed the surge in inflation and resultant hike in interest rates. Predicting these things is pretty much impossible.
wasn't a lot of that wrapped up in the Fed's repeated assertion that inflation would be "transitory"? They thought it was going to mitigate as pandemic related supply-chain bottlenecks cleared up. Inflation turned out to be more persistent than that, and few analysts or market watchers had reason to expect that. And if memory serves me, there were labor shortages and the great resignation, which drove prices up, too.
that's where the "25" in the 75% hit rate comes in. So caveat emptor.
but to be fair, not even the brilliant bond market, which everyone says is way smarter than the stock market...completely and totally missed the surge in inflation and resultant hike in interest rates. Predicting these things is pretty much impossible.
wasn't a lot of that wrapped up in the Fed's repeated assertion that inflation would be "transitory"? They thought it was going to mitigate as pandemic related supply-chain bottlenecks cleared up. Inflation turned out to be more persistent than that, and few analysts or market watchers had reason to expect that. And if memory serves me, there were labor shortages and the great resignation, which drove prices up, too.
All of which were hard to foresee.
sure, but one would think that the bond market would have seen through whatever the Fed said and understood that inflation would be around for a longer time than most expected. It's supposed to be smart like that. But the bond market did not do that. It had no idea what was coming.
And then we can talk about how dumb the bond market was in making something like 1/4 of all sovereign debt pay negative interest, pre-covid. And here we are now...from negative interest to 5%.
Although in the fulness of time...probably we will indeed see this inflation as transitory. But by 'transitory' we will mean 2-3 years, not 6 months.
PS saw an amusing tweet - the US 10 year is apparently paying more than the GREEK 10-year. It costs more for the US government to borrow for 10 years than it costs the Greek government. I suspect that is another example of the bond market making a mistake again.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
From a year ago. Not even CEOs, with their access to data, customers and markets got this right. I imagine some of this high growth we have now is just catching up after pessimistic CEOs pulled back in 2H22 and 1H23, worried about a recession.
Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud 🇺🇸 Some 91% of U.S. CEOs are “convinced” a #recession is on its way in the next 12 months, according to a KPMG survey of 1,325 CEOs between July 12 and August 24, 2022.