Down goes the Dow

A golfer broke a window last Friday. The last time I had a window broken was two years ago, none the eight years prior to that (two in 2021). The cost to repair was right at 10% higher in two years, and three weeks scheduled out for installation.

They will come to your house and fix in one hour.

The golfer is paying, however I am picking up a third of the cost, since I am a nice guy. He hit it on his drive about 300 yards, unfortunately about 30 yards off the course.

If you’re paying 1/3 of the cost, then you are a fool.

No. Living on a golf course is an assumed risk. I would have to haul him into court to enforce. Fortunately golfers are a good lot, and the least I could do is contribute to windows that are already 21 years old. Also, I am replacing with tempered glass which is a little more expensive.

If you wondered why inflation will continue to be a challenge, and the health of the domestic economy continue to deteriorate, this from the Kobeissi Letter:

“For those keeping track, US debt just jumped by another $40 billion in one day.
We are now at $33.55 trillion in Federal debt, just 25 days after it hit a record $33 trillion.

At the current pace, the US would add $1 trillion in Federal debt every 45 days.
Since 2008, the US has added $24 trillion in Federal debt, rising to 3.8x what it was in January 2008.

Total US debt is now officially up more than $2 trillion since the debt ceiling crisis "ended."

But, under the new bill, the debt ceiling is effectively uncapped until January 2025.

How high will US debt be in January 2025?”

I got estimates on window replacement for the house - the estimates ranged from about $25,0000 to close to $100,000. I am just happy with the current windows.

I replaced all the windows in our previous house myself for about $5,000. The windows were aluminum framed, replaced with name brand from Lowes. On an upstairs window I rented a cherry picker to get them in, and need my son’s help. It was during the housing crisis so things were cheaper then.

If you have broken seals on double pane they are reasonable to replace the glass. Companies like Anderson are a bit of a sales pitch. Water stains from sprinklers will come off with a single razor blade held at an angle.

I've built many of the windows in my house. All the interior storm windows I built from vertical grain fir (beautiful stuff, probably old growth) which i salvaged from countertops from an area school that was being demolished.

Last summer I built three windows so as to adapt for window a/c units. I used double pane glass and I get that ordered from a local company, not too expensive.

Periodically, the double pane's seals go out and I replace those glazing units myself as well.

A few years ago, we wanted to add a little privacy to the bathroom windows, which are those multi-paned sash type windows, so I got some semi-opaque handblown float glass and cut the panes to size and installed them where the old glass was in the sash.

When I originally bought the house, I did order 3 windows from someplace like Anderson WIndows for the kitchen, simply because I was up to nose with remodeling the rest of the house. Those windows really suck and I regret it.

Seattle, your skill level is high. In the early 1980s I did replace some rope and pulley wood windows on a 1920s Kansas house. The wood sashes were purchase as single panels; done for this reason on account of rotted wood. Others I just reglazed and replaced glass as needed. Later project was Pella vinyl windows where I just needed to get the size correct, do some trim work inside and out. Still we removed a two story 6’ x 4’ picture window that was somewhat dangerous. Both the old window, and new single hung unit were heavy. Broken glass could do some serious harm. That is the window where we used a cherry picture.

Opps cherry picker….

Off-topic:

Nice, Igy.

Hey, did you ever get that chair re-caned?

Like I said before, I tried re-caning mine, but half way through, it was apparent that i was wasting my time and doing a sub-par job, so I hired it. We got that antique proudly on display now and it is gorgeous. Got the chair free because someone didn't want to deal with it.

No, I think I ran into the same issue. No one in town provides the service. Other thought is to take a class if offered so I have some direction. I will revisit the project this winter when I am no longer tied up with yard work.

debt/gdp hasn't budged much lately so that's good and deflates this concern a bit. You get 8% nominal GDP growth like we are getting now, AND you borrow in your own currency....you get a lot of national debt leeway. And that chart only goes through the 2Q. But good lord the US needs some budget discipline.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Link:fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

That is pretty impressive for Seattle to have built most of his windows.

What is with these short-term predictions? Why do that? Anyway, this one didn't work out, surprise surprise. Market never was as low as it was on the day of the tweet and at one point in the subsequent 6m the market was 11% higher, not lower. No one would invest based on this, right? It's just nonsense and for publicity. Salespeople. .

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
WELLS: “We are within spitting distance of our 4200 $SPX target and now shifting direction. Expect a 10% correction in the next 3-6mos. A front-end inversion, a 7% YTD run, and a banking crisis that will likely take an economic toll triggered our reversal.” [Harvey]

6:51 AM · Apr 11, 2023
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88.4K
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Fair enough. at the time of tweet unemployment was 3.4 and now it's 3.8. But that kind of small rise isn't want the author was talking about. Strength in labor markets has been amazing. But it's still early - unemployment could keep rising.

Jeff Weniger
@JeffWeniger
It's not different this time. When lending standards tighten like this, unemployment follows.

2:51 PM · May 9, 2023
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9,403
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Hey agip, recognize this?

Image:substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_l...