Thurs is CPI; Initial Claims; and reopening of 30YR Bond Auction.
Treasury Market is closed today, but Futures is open!
Toss in all that's happening in the ME, should prove to be a volatile week.
very nice to see bonds do their traditional job by rising in value when people want to reduce risk. That hasn't been the rule lately. Bonds having a nice day today.
But then again, stocks are flat so not a lot of de-risking going on.
Wish I hadn't sold the TLT!
Clueless.
Maybe you should get some basic knowledge from r/investing
Bonds down and growth stocks down on higher interest rates. Over last two weeks I sold down my 15% position in SOXS and TECS to 2%. I was up better than 15-20% on most of positions sold, plowed 50% of the proceeds into EM Bond CEFs EMD and FAX, at 13% and 14% yields. I am up 6% on my entire position as of market close. Today, at near market highs added back a 1% position split between SOXS and TECS. I have about a 6% in money market that I will strategically deploy, most likely to same.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
very nice to see bonds do their traditional job by rising in value when people want to reduce risk. That hasn't been the rule lately. Bonds having a nice day today.
But then again, stocks are flat so not a lot of de-risking going on.
Wish I hadn't sold the TLT!
Clueless.
Maybe you should get some basic knowledge from r/investing
lol
I heard crypto and Hunter Biden’s art are a thing. Of course for the Euro connected elite.
In Flagpole we have a White, straight male, yet ugly. It appears he overcame a lot of hurdles. Good for him, but he will never be a California Senator. Even if he buys a home in Burbank, next door to Adam Schiff.
Man...what a weird post.
1) I am a straight white male. True.
2) Ugly? Um...nope! I have HUGE biceps! I run. I lift weights. I do parkour.
3) Overcame a lot of hurdles? Not really. I grew up in a middle class household with educated parents, and I got half of my college paid for because of my Dad's job, and I paid most of the rest of it with my own money and working...parents paid very little out of pocket for my college education.
4) I had been employed non-stop (other than the time between hoping from one job to another one) since I graduated college until I retired.
5) I have no interest in working as a Senator or any political position.
6) So, not sure what I overcame. Lots of people have it way worse than I did. I'm super smart...something I was just given. No work on my part to achieve that. That's unfair, but it's true. I accept my gifts and know that I have them.
Good to see you out of the bunker after a couple of up days. :-)
In a world of bad calls, this might take the cake. Imagine the damage to p & ls by being scared by this stuff and taking action.
SP500 +23% from this tweet. Literally he picked the bottom to click 'post.'
111k followers.
HOZ @MFHoz We are approaching something we haven't experienced since 1929. The "buy and hold" mantra you learned only works in a disinflationary environment but what's ahead will require another approach as P/E ratios contract because of higher rates. A historic bear market is underway. 1:07 PM · Oct 11, 2022
2) Ugly? Um...nope! I have HUGE biceps! I run. I lift weights. I do parkour.
3) Overcame a lot of hurdles? Not really. I grew up in a middle class household with educated parents, and I got half of my college paid for because of my Dad's job, and I paid most of the rest of it with my own money and working...parents paid very little out of pocket for my college education.
4) I had been employed non-stop (other than the time between hoping from one job to another one) since I graduated college until I retired.
5) I have no interest in working as a Senator or any political position.
6) So, not sure what I overcame. Lots of people have it way worse than I did. I'm super smart...something I was just given. No work on my part to achieve that. That's unfair, but it's true. I accept my gifts and know that I have them.
Good to see you out of the bunker after a couple of up days. :-)
Market pumping again! Not quite at the 3300 level or lower like you said would’ve happened by now. Looks to be about 4400 and probably ATH by Dec 24! Idiot! Lmao. Giant tile teeth and no real accomplishments, now you can add bad “retard permabear” to the list. :D
“BREAKING: September PPI inflation unexpectedly rises to 2.2%, above expectations of 1.6%.
Core PPI inflation rose to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.3%.
This is the first jump in Core PPI since April 2022.
PPI inflation is now up 3 consecutive months.
What does the Fed do now?”
early in the day, but this reply to your point makes sense to me:
Kris Sidial @Ksidiii Not a great sign for Q4 bears that PPI came in hot and futures are moving higher. The absolute worst case for Q4 bears is if CPI comes in hot tomorrow and equities rally. This would be potentially signaling one of two things. 1) The market is normalizing to the inflation catalyst 2) The bond market front ran the final rate hike of the year and now that it’s on the table, the move is priced in Doesn’t make too much sense huh? Welcome to markets, it’s not as simple as the academic textbooks make it out to be.
2) Ugly? Um...nope! I have HUGE biceps! I run. I lift weights. I do parkour.
3) Overcame a lot of hurdles? Not really. I grew up in a middle class household with educated parents, and I got half of my college paid for because of my Dad's job, and I paid most of the rest of it with my own money and working...parents paid very little out of pocket for my college education.
4) I had been employed non-stop (other than the time between hoping from one job to another one) since I graduated college until I retired.
5) I have no interest in working as a Senator or any political position.
6) So, not sure what I overcame. Lots of people have it way worse than I did. I'm super smart...something I was just given. No work on my part to achieve that. That's unfair, but it's true. I accept my gifts and know that I have them.
Good to see you out of the bunker after a couple of up days. :-)
On your tombstone we will put "he had huge biceps" and "he was super smart" and "he accepted his gifts and knew that he had them." Sounds pretty magnanimous to me.
“BREAKING: September PPI inflation unexpectedly rises to 2.2%, above expectations of 1.6%.
Core PPI inflation rose to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.3%.
This is the first jump in Core PPI since April 2022.
PPI inflation is now up 3 consecutive months.
What does the Fed do now?”
early in the day, but this reply to your point makes sense to me:
Kris Sidial @Ksidiii Not a great sign for Q4 bears that PPI came in hot and futures are moving higher. The absolute worst case for Q4 bears is if CPI comes in hot tomorrow and equities rally. This would be potentially signaling one of two things. 1) The market is normalizing to the inflation catalyst 2) The bond market front ran the final rate hike of the year and now that it’s on the table, the move is priced in Doesn’t make too much sense huh? Welcome to markets, it’s not as simple as the academic textbooks make it out to be.
The larger issue for the domestic bond and stock market is the addiction to cheap and plentiful credit. A circular Ponzi scheme, where the foundation of the economy gets weaker over time. A manipulation of markets is not good for society. I continue to believe it has a poor outcome, inflation being just one of them.
“On October 11, 2023, Microsoft Corporation announced the receipt of Notices of Proposed Adjustment (“NOPAs”) from the Internal Revenue Service (the “IRS”) for the tax years 2004 to 2013. The NOPAs were received on September 26, 2023. The primary issues in the NOPAs relate to intercompany transfer pricing. In the NOPAs, the IRS is seeking an additional tax payment of $28.9 billion plus penalties and interest.”
“On October 11, 2023, Microsoft Corporation announced the receipt of Notices of Proposed Adjustment (“NOPAs”) from the Internal Revenue Service (the “IRS”) for the tax years 2004 to 2013. The NOPAs were received on September 26, 2023. The primary issues in the NOPAs relate to intercompany transfer pricing. In the NOPAs, the IRS is seeking an additional tax payment of $28.9 billion plus penalties and interest.”
Here is Microsoft's SEC filing disclosing the NOPA, see link below..
It discloses the nature of the issue as well as saying that Microsoft believes they did nothing wrong, and intend to work with a separate division of the IRS that handles Appeals to resolve it. It does say several times that resolving it with the IRS will take years - yes, years - and if they cannot come to an agreement, the issue will proceed to the courts.
From six months ago another post-pandemic era combination of events that never happened before.
3Fourteen Research @3F_Research Were the October lows "THE lows" for the S&P 500? We doubt it. Three reasons we believe the ultimate lows are still ahead of us: 1) Typically, forward earnings stabilize and turn higher 3-6 months after a market bottom. Not happening this cycle.
2) The S&P 500 has never bottomed during a Fed hike cycle. This cycle, the Fed has hiked 175 bps following the October "bottom."
3) The 2-10 Yield Curve has never remained inverted six months after a major bear market bottom. This cycle, the YC remains inverted.
Bad call here. Market fell 5% in September and closed at 4288. Why anyone would make a one-month prediction of what the stock market would do, I don't know. Looks like they based their prediction on likelihoods, given certain market characteristics.
@carlquintanilla “Consensus is now warning that equity markets could be soft in September. But we .. expect the exact opposite .. We see S&P 500 gaining 2%-3% in September, pushing back to July highs of >4,600 ..” @fundstrat $SPX
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla “Consensus is now warning that equity markets could be soft in September. But we .. expect the exact opposite .. We see S&P 500 gaining 2%-3% in September, pushing back to July highs of >4,600 ..” @fundstrat $SPX 7:47 AM · Aug 30, 2023 · 251.2K Views
From a year ago at the very bottom, a whale of a call from Fidelity's chief macro guy. Said it's too late to be bearish because the fed would only hike until real interest rates got to around 2.5%, or 3.5% if we count the effects of QT. Stopping there would let PEs start to rise .
And that's pretty much exactly what has happened. It was too late to be bearish - stocks bottomed on the day of the tweet and are up 24% from that day. Real interest rates are at around exactly that 2.5% number and not likely to go higher from the Fed anyway.
only 303 likes for a brilliant call from Fidelity. Hmm.
Social Security recipients will get a 3.2% COLA increase next year. Thank you owners equivalent rent.
more money for the oldsters. I read an article that one of the major factors that has made the economy more resilient than expected is old folk. COVID seems to have spurred their spending quite a bit. And now they get 5% coupons plus big SS COLAs. So the spending will continue .Good for them I guess.
For what it's worth, this CPI report brought down the Fed's Inflation Now estimates, for the most part. Infl estimates continue to bend down.
This post was edited 37 seconds after it was posted.