Down goes the Dow

Selected 3-year annualized returns. Been a solid time to invest in stocks, but not bonds. I'm always amused by how SP500 returns stick to that 10%/year number.

These are annualized numbers

TSLA +24%

COWZ +21

CALF +17

Value +12

Tech +11

India +11

SP500 +10

Small Caps +7

Non-US developed +5

Global 60/40 +2

Hussman +2

Emerging -1

Gold -1

Inter US treasuries -5

Corp bonds -7

ARKK -25

Interesting how things have come back together...in 2022 value slayed, in 2023 growth slayed...and it all came back together with similar numbers. Even ol'hussman and global 60/40 came back together despite very different orders of return.

US has obvi been the place to be in general.

The US lost 22 million jobs in a few weeks during Covid (due to lockdowns, not due to illness). Lockdowns were of course largely (but not solely) mandated by Dem Governors, mayors, etc.

Highly dishonest to credit Dems for job gains

Great. You get to work all day but the money you get doesn’t buy anything.

The S&P is exactly where it was two years ago. See, it’s easy to cherry pick numbers.

This agip character is biased and delusional.

What is this, court-ordered therapy?

So the job gains didn’t happen while the Dems were in control?

Good call from Jeremy Siegel on 10/31/22, near the lows. Stocks up around 15% from then.

With the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all deep in the red year to date, it might be tempting to hit the sell button and get out of this ugly market completely.
But a prominent economist suggests otherwise.
“If you're a long term investor, I would absolutely buy now,” Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School of Business, told CNBC. “I think these are absolutely great long-term values.”
Here’s a look at why the professor is so optimistic.

One of the reasons behind this year’s stock market slump is inflation. Consumer prices were rising at their fastest pace in 40 years. While the headline CPI number has cooled off a bit recently — September’s inflation rate was 8.2% year-over-year — it’s still worryingly high.
To tame inflation, the Fed is raising interest rates aggressively. The central bank increased its benchmark interest rates by 75 basis points last month, marking the third such hike in a row.
If rampant inflation continues, more rate hikes could be on the way. And that does not bode well for stocks.
Siegel points to one segment of inflation that is cooling down: housing. But that isn’t properly reflected in the index numbers.
“We pointed out that the way these indices are constructed, that housing costs are very lagged, and they're going to continue to go up, even though as we saw the Case-Shiller Housing Index, and the National Housing Index, housing prices are going down,” he says.
Siegel suggests that instead of making decisions based on lagging indicators, the Fed “has to be forward looking.”
“They have to look at what's going on in the market, in the housing market, in the rental market, in the commodity market.”
‘Excellent value’
The pullback in stocks has been painful, but that’s exactly why this could be an opportunity.
The reason, Siegel explains, is that the fall in stocks has brought their valuations down.
“When you're talking about 16 times earnings, and even if they're clipped by a recession, and you shouldn't just base it on recession earnings, you should base it on longer term earnings, which I think are very favorable … I think these are just absolutely excellent values,” he said.

finance.yahoo.com

Jeremy Siegel: Long-term investors should ‘absolutely buy now' — why the world-renowned Wharton professor remains optimistic about today’s stock market

The message is simple. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Link:finance.yahoo.com/news/long-term-inves...

Another good call from April 2023. We're up 3%ish from then. An correct on earnings being higher than expected.

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
“.. 82% of companies are beating and by a margin of 7.6%. .. the earnings recession wallop the bears are expecting has not materialized. .. 1Q23 earnings season will ultimately enable the $SPX to push to new highs for the year. YTD up 8% and we see the uptrend intact.”
@fundstrat

7:49 PM · Apr 18, 2023
·
327.2K
Views

not wrong. Morningstar has 1,3,5 year returns so I can't get a 2-year number from a service.

But agreed - I've pointed out many times on this thread that the market will most likely go two years without a new all-time high. Lower now than way back in12/2021.

Agip, please bookmark this post. Will be interesting to see if you are right or wrong. I expect to see a new high within the next year.

to get to two years without a new high we only have to get to December 2023. Seems pretty sure we'll get there.

When do you mean I should bookmark it for?

I misunderstood you. I thought you meant no new high for the next 2 years. My bad.

barchart.com

TLT - 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF Snapshot Chart - Barchart.com

@barchart

Technical etfs funds chart with latest price quote for 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF, with technical analysis, latest news, and opinions.

Link:www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/TLT...

Tomorrow is 3 YR Note Auction.

Wed is PPI and reopening of 10 YR Note Auction.

Thurs is CPI; Initial Claims; and reopening of 30YR Bond Auction.

Treasury Market is closed today, but Futures is open!

Toss in all that's happening in the ME, should prove to be a volatile week.

very nice to see bonds do their traditional job by rising in value when people want to reduce risk. That hasn't been the rule lately. Bonds having a nice day today.

But then again, stocks are flat so not a lot of de-risking going on.

Wish I hadn't sold the TLT!

Another one of those 'when X happens, you always get Y' bites the dust in the weird post-pandemic era. This one from a year ago. Stocks are up 21% over a year ago and spreads are much narrower today.

Alf
@MacroAlf
In the US, 5y real yields are trading 150+ bps above my estimate of neutral real rates (r*).
And every time the Fed forced a tight policy (50-100 bps above neutral) for longer than a few months, 1 year later the SPX was much lower and credit spreads much wider.

Man...what a weird post.

1) I am a straight white male. True.

2) Ugly? Um...nope! I have HUGE biceps! I run. I lift weights. I do parkour.

3) Overcame a lot of hurdles? Not really. I grew up in a middle class household with educated parents, and I got half of my college paid for because of my Dad's job, and I paid most of the rest of it with my own money and working...parents paid very little out of pocket for my college education.

4) I had been employed non-stop (other than the time between hoping from one job to another one) since I graduated college until I retired.

5) I have no interest in working as a Senator or any political position.

6) So, not sure what I overcame. Lots of people have it way worse than I did. I'm super smart...something I was just given. No work on my part to achieve that. That's unfair, but it's true. I accept my gifts and know that I have them.

Yep. He makes a grand prediction back in February that the S&P 500 would be at or near 3,000 by year's end, and he's so sure about it that he calls me out and asks agip to bookmark the page...seemingly to show how right he was and how wrong I was for calling him a permabear...and THEN, he doesn't like it when I want to keep track to see if he's going to be right.

Riding his ass? Um...nope! Stupid phrase for one thing, but I'm just keeping track to see if he's right or not. So far it hasn't gone the way he predicted, so he's mad about the spotlight that HE ASKED FOR. Since he clearly can't handle being held accountable for what he says (like his savior, Trump), then methinks he should stop making such pronouncements.

Lol !

And emerging market debt!😂😂😂😂

MORAN