ok well we've learned over the years that we can't really put any stock in what roubini says, but good to see him fail again after decades of failing. It's a tradition! US stocks up 19% from this tweet and the global economy has been soldiering on.
unusual_whales @unusual_whales Nouriel Roubini says he expects a "long and ugly" global recession and stocks falling as much as 40%. 6:01 PM · Sep 25, 2022
This post was edited 27 seconds after it was posted.
My favorite analyst, David Kelly of JPM, saying a year ago at the depths of the market bottom that times like those...are when you buy and wait for something good to happen. Good advice. Stocks up 19% from then so great, great advice.
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Bad call from Bank of America. Said we'd be at or near 52 week lows by now. We are around 22% above the 52 week low, even after this small correction.
Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives Michael Hartnett of BoA, who accurately called for $SPX to hit 3,800 early March (which it did) is quadrupling down on his bearish call for at least a retest of Oct 2022 lows if not new lows. Mike Wilson of $MS also stands by his similar call. *Tom Lee has entered the chat.*
Perfect contrarian call a year ago from retired legend Walter Deemer. Said market would be higher a year from then. The market was around 17% higher a year later, incl the dividend.
Walter Deemer @WalterDeemer 1/2 I’m gonna break my hard-and-fast rule and make some forecasts: 1) Per a lot of very persuasive studies, the S&P will be higher 12 months from now.
This might be the key question right now - why are yields rising when inflation data remain tame? is it just too much supply of bonds? If so, that should clear up as higher rates pull in buyers. But if the bond market is foreseeing higher inflation then that’s more serious and bad for stocks.
From the day of this tweet it was 10 more days down, to 3491 and then off to the races.
So it was close to 3400. Half credit.
unusual_whales @unusual_whales Morgan Stanely, $MS: "Can You Hear Me Now? It appears investors have finally gotten the message ... with a Fed pivot now undeniably off the table… We remain highly convicted the bear market in stocks will not be over until the S&P 500 reaches the range of … 3000-3400."
"if 30-year US Treasury yield hits 5% then cumulative loss from holding US government paper = 50% in 3 years…such a fine line between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement.” - Michael Hartnett, BOA
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 16 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 6 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
It is now the last day of September, and the S&P 500 sits at 4,288.05. As most of you know, our resident permabear confidently accounced earlier this year that the S&P 500 would be at or near 3,000 by the end of the year. When this statement was made, the S&P 500 sat at 3,991. I called him a permabear, and he asked agip to bookmark the page. Important to note that I did not call for the markets to go up or down in 2023. I am never that sure about any short period of time to make a call like that...I am ONLY sure that over time it will go up. Our resident permabear though was so sure of himself that he called me out. So, I'm just keeping track here. 3 more months to go to see if he will be right or not.
Here's how that went down: from 2/23/2023... Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
It is now the last day of September, and the S&P 500 sits at 4,288.05. As most of you know, our resident permabear confidently accounced earlier this year that the S&P 500 would be at or near 3,000 by the end of the year. When this statement was made, the S&P 500 sat at 3,991. I called him a permabear, and he asked agip to bookmark the page. Important to note that I did not call for the markets to go up or down in 2023. I am never that sure about any short period of time to make a call like that...I am ONLY sure that over time it will go up. Our resident permabear though was so sure of himself that he called me out. So, I'm just keeping track here. 3 more months to go to see if he will be right or not.
Here's how that went down: from 2/23/2023... Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
If we’re going to call out Igy every time he is wrong, there’s going to be no room for honest discussions. My rule of thumb is to just assume anything he says is wrong and move on. He’s not worth the bandwidth.
It is now the last day of September, and the S&P 500 sits at 4,288.05. As most of you know, our resident permabear confidently accounced earlier this year that the S&P 500 would be at or near 3,000 by the end of the year. When this statement was made, the S&P 500 sat at 3,991. I called him a permabear, and he asked agip to bookmark the page. Important to note that I did not call for the markets to go up or down in 2023. I am never that sure about any short period of time to make a call like that...I am ONLY sure that over time it will go up. Our resident permabear though was so sure of himself that he called me out. So, I'm just keeping track here. 3 more months to go to see if he will be right or not.
Here's how that went down: from 2/23/2023... Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
If we’re going to call out Igy every time he is wrong, there’s going to be no room for honest discussions. My rule of thumb is to just assume anything he says is wrong and move on. He’s not worth the bandwidth.
It's like this: On Sept. 30th, 2022, Igy predicted that the S&P 500 index would be at least 30% lower by the end of the coming year.
What will it be on December 31st, 2023?
A.: I don't know, but on December 31st, 2023, Igy will predict that the S&P 500 will be at least 30% lower by the end of the following year.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Seattle, you are probably right. By the way, the S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 4.93%, after a loss of 1.71% in August. During that period SOXS and TECS have been big winners.
