Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Can’t see what that says, but I can tell it’s from Hussman so I felt safe downvoting the post.
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23
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Klondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
Happy Anniversary, Down Goes the Dow!
Ten years of chatting. We've had ups and downs but I think we've all learned some things, let off some steam and made some money together. I know I have enjoyed the conversation.
Are we the oldest ongoing thread on LRC?
For the record, during those ten years here are the annualized returns for selected indices (actually returns for the relevant ETF but the actual index return will be very similar.)
Returns including dividends:
Tech: +19.7%/year
QQQ:+17.92%
SP500 +12.24%
Dow: +10.99%
Small Caps: +8.6%
Non-US developed: +4.6%
Emerging +3.2%
Bonds +1.41%
The enormous outperformance by 1/ tech and 2/ the US stand out. It looks like the great surge of emerging markets ended...being the factory floor of the world is no longer a path to wealth. The US-style consumer, service and knowledge economy seems to be the place to be. Seems to have been the place to be anyway. Know how to do something complicated gets you the moolah.
Extraordinary returns for tech. I sure missed most of that. 2000 burned me too badly to be a good tech investor. Kudos to Seattle and Flagpole for being good tech investors. Takes a big backbone.
All in all, a fairly standard 10-year period for blue-chip stocks. But a bit underperforming for small caps and very bad for bonds. All that drama to get fairly average returns.
30 -
agip wrote:
Klondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
Happy Anniversary, Down Goes the Dow!
Ten years of chatting. We've had ups and downs but I think we've all learned some things, let off some steam and made some money together. I know I have enjoyed the conversation.
Are we the oldest ongoing thread on LRC?
For the record, during those ten years here are the annualized returns for selected indices (actually returns for the relevant ETF but the actual index return will be very similar.)
Returns including dividends:
Tech: +19.7%/year
QQQ:+17.92%
SP500 +12.24%
Dow: +10.99%
Small Caps: +8.6%
Non-US developed: +4.6%
Emerging +3.2%
Bonds +1.41%
The enormous outperformance by 1/ tech and 2/ the US stand out. It looks like the great surge of emerging markets ended...being the factory floor of the world is no longer a path to wealth. The US-style consumer, service and knowledge economy seems to be the place to be. Seems to have been the place to be anyway. Know how to do something complicated gets you the moolah.
Extraordinary returns for tech. I sure missed most of that. 2000 burned me too badly to be a good tech investor. Kudos to Seattle and Flagpole for being good tech investors. Takes a big backbone.
All in all, a fairly standard 10-year period for blue-chip stocks. But a bit underperforming for small caps and very bad for bonds. All that drama to get fairly average returns.
Hear, hear!
Happy anniv. to the venerable DGTD! All rise (stocks, that is).
The track record for small caps has been very interesting to me. I've always believed in the long term growth potential of tech, and it sure looks obvious enough now in hindsight, but small caps were a fascinating story. I rode them up pretty hard back in the days of "irrational exuberance" coming out of the tech bubble of 2000, and the thinking was that small caps often lead the way during a recovery (and they did). But I saw that they were really starting to lag around 2014 and the next few years so I largely got out of them then.
The reasoning for there underperformance of recent years is due to several factors, and in checking into this I found this particularly insightful analysis, which some might find worthwhile. Some very solid inferences contained herein, imo:
20 -
From May 26, 2023. Let's check this forecast:
J.P. Morgan’s Kolanovic
you bulls are doing it all wrong
raise cash, buy gold
sell energy
recession risk still elevatedCash returned 1.23%ish in that period, at a 5% annualized rate.
Gold: negative 1.3% return
Energy: +12%
Economic growth is accelerating wildly, not nearing recession
So Kolanovic got energy right. Stocks returned 5.3% in that period so I'll say his cash call is wrong. Obvi wrong on gold and recession risk too.
Not a great prediction.
20 -
agip wrote:
Klondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
Happy Anniversary, Down Goes the Dow!
Ten years of chatting. We've had ups and downs but I think we've all learned some things, let off some steam and made some money together. I know I have enjoyed the conversation.
Are we the oldest ongoing thread on LRC?
For the record, during those ten years here are the annualized returns for selected indices (actually returns for the relevant ETF but the actual index return will be very similar.)
Returns including dividends:
Tech: +19.7%/year
QQQ:+17.92%
SP500 +12.24%
Dow: +10.99%
Small Caps: +8.6%
Non-US developed: +4.6%
Emerging +3.2%
Bonds +1.41%
The enormous outperformance by 1/ tech and 2/ the US stand out. It looks like the great surge of emerging markets ended...being the factory floor of the world is no longer a path to wealth. The US-style consumer, service and knowledge economy seems to be the place to be. Seems to have been the place to be anyway. Know how to do something complicated gets you the moolah.
Extraordinary returns for tech. I sure missed most of that. 2000 burned me too badly to be a good tech investor. Kudos to Seattle and Flagpole for being good tech investors. Takes a big backbone.
All in all, a fairly standard 10-year period for blue-chip stocks. But a bit underperforming for small caps and very bad for bonds. All that drama to get fairly average returns.
1) Hmm...you mean to tell me that over a long period of time (10 years in this case) that the end result is pretty average returns? SHOCKING! (sarcasm)
2) I know you still don't believe this, but I'm not a "good tech investor." ~22% today of my holdings are tech stocks, and it hasn't varied much from that level over the last 10 years. Takes no backbone to do that.
3) The ONLY thing that takes backbone is to invest, invest, invest, no matter what the market does or what you think it will do until you retire. You invest money you don't need today so that you have income later on. That really should be the only mindset.
4) If we look at the reason this thread was started, it was started by a Chicken Little who was very quickly shown to be so absolutely wrong.
11 -
Johannes wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Can’t see what that says, but I can tell it’s from Hussman so I felt safe downvoting the post.
I am pretty sure I have never upvoted a Hussman post.
30 -
seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
Happy Anniversary, Down Goes the Dow!
Ten years of chatting. We've had ups and downs but I think we've all learned some things, let off some steam and made some money together. I know I have enjoyed the conversation.
Are we the oldest ongoing thread on LRC?
For the record, during those ten years here are the annualized returns for selected indices (actually returns for the relevant ETF but the actual index return will be very similar.)
Returns including dividends:
Tech: +19.7%/year
QQQ:+17.92%
SP500 +12.24%
Dow: +10.99%
Small Caps: +8.6%
Non-US developed: +4.6%
Emerging +3.2%
Bonds +1.41%
The enormous outperformance by 1/ tech and 2/ the US stand out. It looks like the great surge of emerging markets ended...being the factory floor of the world is no longer a path to wealth. The US-style consumer, service and knowledge economy seems to be the place to be. Seems to have been the place to be anyway. Know how to do something complicated gets you the moolah.
Extraordinary returns for tech. I sure missed most of that. 2000 burned me too badly to be a good tech investor. Kudos to Seattle and Flagpole for being good tech investors. Takes a big backbone.
All in all, a fairly standard 10-year period for blue-chip stocks. But a bit underperforming for small caps and very bad for bonds. All that drama to get fairly average returns.
Hear, hear!
Happy anniv. to the venerable DGTD! All rise (stocks, that is).
The track record for small caps has been very interesting to me. I've always believed in the long term growth potential of tech, and it sure looks obvious enough now in hindsight, but small caps were a fascinating story. I rode them up pretty hard back in the days of "irrational exuberance" coming out of the tech bubble of 2000, and the thinking was that small caps often lead the way during a recovery (and they did). But I saw that they were really starting to lag around 2014 and the next few years so I largely got out of them then.
The reasoning for there underperformance of recent years is due to several factors, and in checking into this I found this particularly insightful analysis, which some might find worthwhile. Some very solid inferences contained herein, imo:
Small caps have been interesting. I agree.
I am looking at one of my small cap Fidelity funds right now, and while not great, it's not horrible either.
+7.11% for the life of the fund
+12.04% over the last 3 years
You could do worse than either of those results.
Contrast to a randomly picked Large Cap Fidelity fund of mine that shows this:
+16.36% for the life of the fund
+12.18 over the last 3 years
SOOOO, for the last three years, these two funds have been almost identical.
That's why I just invest in as many different types of funds in as many different industries as possible. You just never know when one sector will be hot or not.
00 -
This chart shows why the market has done so well the last 40 years. It is the NASDAQ 100 but does a good job representing the NASDAQ. Over about the last 40 if you throw out the down years of around 2000-2002 you have 31 years of great returns and 3 years of bad returns. The few bad annual returns have always been followed by better up years. Even the bad 2002 was followed by the 50% return of 2003.
00 -
Flagpole wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Hear, hear!
Happy anniv. to the venerable DGTD! All rise (stocks, that is).
The track record for small caps has been very interesting to me. I've always believed in the long term growth potential of tech, and it sure looks obvious enough now in hindsight, but small caps were a fascinating story. I rode them up pretty hard back in the days of "irrational exuberance" coming out of the tech bubble of 2000, and the thinking was that small caps often lead the way during a recovery (and they did). But I saw that they were really starting to lag around 2014 and the next few years so I largely got out of them then.
The reasoning for there underperformance of recent years is due to several factors, and in checking into this I found this particularly insightful analysis, which some might find worthwhile. Some very solid inferences contained herein, imo:
Small caps have been interesting. I agree.
I am looking at one of my small cap Fidelity funds right now, and while not great, it's not horrible either.
+7.11% for the life of the fund
+12.04% over the last 3 years
You could do worse than either of those results.
Contrast to a randomly picked Large Cap Fidelity fund of mine that shows this:
+16.36% for the life of the fund
+12.18 over the last 3 years
SOOOO, for the last three years, these two funds have been almost identical.
That's why I just invest in as many different types of funds in as many different industries as possible. You just never know when one sector will be hot or not.
In one sentence you just epitomized the greatness of diversification. I have said this before but your portfolio is 4% based on stocks and funds you picked and 96% based on diversification.
00 -
Flagpole wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Hear, hear!
Happy anniv. to the venerable DGTD! All rise (stocks, that is).
The track record for small caps has been very interesting to me. I've always believed in the long term growth potential of tech, and it sure looks obvious enough now in hindsight, but small caps were a fascinating story. I rode them up pretty hard back in the days of "irrational exuberance" coming out of the tech bubble of 2000, and the thinking was that small caps often lead the way during a recovery (and they did). But I saw that they were really starting to lag around 2014 and the next few years so I largely got out of them then.
The reasoning for there underperformance of recent years is due to several factors, and in checking into this I found this particularly insightful analysis, which some might find worthwhile. Some very solid inferences contained herein, imo:
Small caps have been interesting. I agree.
I am looking at one of my small cap Fidelity funds right now, and while not great, it's not horrible either.
+7.11% for the life of the fund
+12.04% over the last 3 years
You could do worse than either of those results.
Contrast to a randomly picked Large Cap Fidelity fund of mine that shows this:
+16.36% for the life of the fund
+12.18 over the last 3 years
SOOOO, for the last three years, these two funds have been almost identical.
That's why I just invest in as many different types of funds in as many different industries as possible. You just never know when one sector will be hot or not.
I am systematically overweight small caps due to a quirk in my personal financial situation. So I've been overweight small caps and slightly underweight tech. Not a great combo!
Hoping the pendulum swings back and small caps (and value!) catch up over the next ten years.
Valuation is so loosely related to returns that I don't have a lot of confidence that just because small caps are cheap means they will outperform. Big tech investing just sucks up so many billions of dollars that there aren't much left for other stocks.
00 -
agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Small caps have been interesting. I agree.
I am looking at one of my small cap Fidelity funds right now, and while not great, it's not horrible either.
+7.11% for the life of the fund
+12.04% over the last 3 years
You could do worse than either of those results.
Contrast to a randomly picked Large Cap Fidelity fund of mine that shows this:
+16.36% for the life of the fund
+12.18 over the last 3 years
SOOOO, for the last three years, these two funds have been almost identical.
That's why I just invest in as many different types of funds in as many different industries as possible. You just never know when one sector will be hot or not.
I am systematically overweight small caps due to a quirk in my personal financial situation. So I've been overweight small caps and slightly underweight tech. Not a great combo!
Hoping the pendulum swings back and small caps (and value!) catch up over the next ten years.
Valuation is so loosely related to returns that I don't have a lot of confidence that just because small caps are cheap means they will outperform. Big tech investing just sucks up so many billions of dollars that there aren't much left for other stocks.
Agip - you have to go with the Fab 7. Maybe FOMO but I don't see anything stopping them from doing well in the future.
00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I am pretty sure I have never upvoted a Hussman post.
The message board voting is akin to a junior high popularity contest, rarely representing quality of anything.
Since 2009 the S & P has an annual return of almost 15% per year. Think about that - 15% annually for about 15 years. That is not a quality return? It is maybe 20 times the Hussman strategic return of the same time period. Probably more.
10 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The message board voting is akin to a junior high popularity contest, rarely representing quality of anything.
Since 2009 the S & P has an annual return of almost 15% per year. Think about that - 15% annually for about 15 years. That is not a quality return? It is maybe 20 times the Hussman strategic return of the same time period. Probably more.
Let me amend that - the Hussman fund hasn't had a return for pretty much forever. Losses after losses after losses.
10 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The message board voting is akin to a junior high popularity contest, rarely representing quality of anything.
Since 2009 the S & P has an annual return of almost 15% per year. Think about that - 15% annually for about 15 years. That is not a quality return? It is maybe 20 times the Hussman strategic return of the same time period. Probably more.
I am more concerned with my performance in HSGFX which has outperformed most assets.
02 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I am pretty sure I have never upvoted a Hussman post.
The message board voting is akin to a junior high popularity contest, rarely representing quality of anything.
Somebody’s butthurt. 😘
10 -
agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Small caps have been interesting. I agree.
I am looking at one of my small cap Fidelity funds right now, and while not great, it's not horrible either.
+7.11% for the life of the fund
+12.04% over the last 3 years
You could do worse than either of those results.
Contrast to a randomly picked Large Cap Fidelity fund of mine that shows this:
+16.36% for the life of the fund
+12.18 over the last 3 years
SOOOO, for the last three years, these two funds have been almost identical.
That's why I just invest in as many different types of funds in as many different industries as possible. You just never know when one sector will be hot or not.
I am systematically overweight small caps due to a quirk in my personal financial situation. So I've been overweight small caps and slightly underweight tech. Not a great combo!
Hoping the pendulum swings back and small caps (and value!) catch up over the next ten years.
Valuation is so loosely related to returns that I don't have a lot of confidence that just because small caps are cheap means they will outperform. Big tech investing just sucks up so many billions of dollars that there aren't much left for other stocks.
The only thing that promises hope for the small caps is if the large cap tech is just overbought (overreached).
Assuming that AI is going to be what it's cracked up to be, who will benefit disproportionately? The generation of these programs and the marketing will have to be the big dogs, for many reasons. And who will benefit from them? Small companies may benefit from the efficiencies they bestow, but not in the early years, when only companies of certain size will be able to buy them, employ them across all their network, and fully implement them. And I think that likewise, the prevalence of remote work in this post-pandemic world also serves large centrally based business better than the small ones.
Just some things to think about.
00 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Small caps have been interesting. I agree.
I am looking at one of my small cap Fidelity funds right now, and while not great, it's not horrible either.
+7.11% for the life of the fund
+12.04% over the last 3 years
You could do worse than either of those results.
Contrast to a randomly picked Large Cap Fidelity fund of mine that shows this:
+16.36% for the life of the fund
+12.18 over the last 3 years
SOOOO, for the last three years, these two funds have been almost identical.
That's why I just invest in as many different types of funds in as many different industries as possible. You just never know when one sector will be hot or not.
In one sentence you just epitomized the greatness of diversification.
Sally (and it brings be great joy to say this), you are CORRECT!
00 -
Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
I am systematically overweight small caps due to a quirk in my personal financial situation. So I've been overweight small caps and slightly underweight tech. Not a great combo!
Hoping the pendulum swings back and small caps (and value!) catch up over the next ten years.
Valuation is so loosely related to returns that I don't have a lot of confidence that just because small caps are cheap means they will outperform. Big tech investing just sucks up so many billions of dollars that there aren't much left for other stocks.
Agip - you have to go with the Fab 7. Maybe FOMO but I don't see anything stopping them from doing well in the future.
Part of investing is knowing yourself. I know I will panic sell tech when it inevitably falls 15-20% - I'll say 'it's 2000 again' and dump it all. Whereas I can hang on to the SP500 through the roller coaster. So my returns would probably be worse if I went heavy into tech. I'd sell low.
00
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