The dow is only up around 8% and the equal-weighted SP500 (much less tech than the regular SP500) is also up just 8%. But tech is up 33%.
And you are up 15%. In other words, you've used tech to juice your returns. Which is great! congratulations. But just agree for Pre's sake.
Virtually the only way you can get to that 15% number is by owning a lot of tech. other stocks just aren't up that much.
And virtually the only way you could beat the Dow for years is *also* by owning a lot of tech.
I'd bet a lot of money you are overweight tech in your portfolio. Every piece of data matches up to that conclusion.
And again, why is he comparing his portfolio to the Dow? They are apples and oranges.
[sigh]
I just picked The Dow early on as my annual measure. It doesn't mean ANYTHING other than that's a measure I use to judge my investments against. I could have picked sunny days or cats in my yard or candy bars I had that year. There is no apples to oranges.
And again, why is he comparing his portfolio to the Dow? They are apples and oranges.
[sigh]
I just picked The Dow early on as my annual measure. It doesn't mean ANYTHING other than that's a measure I use to judge my investments against. I could have picked sunny days or cats in my yard or candy bars I had that year. There is no apples to oranges.
Flagpole, don't take this too hard but you have no idea what you are talking about. And I say that respectfully. There is a huge difference between Dow and the Nasdaq and S & P.
A few of the difference:
The main differences between the NASDAQ and the Dow are12345:The Dow is purely a stock market index, while the Nasdaq is also a stock exchange.
The Dow includes stocks on both the NYSE as well as the Nasdaq, whereas any Nasdaq indexes will include only stocks listed on Nasdaq exchanges.
Nasdaq is based on the company's market capitalization and outstanding value of the stock, while the Dow Jones index is based on a price-weighted average index.
NASDAQ mainly comprises companies in the technology sector or companies in the growth stages, while Dow Jones is more about the stock price and is hence dependent on earnings.
The NASDAQ Composite consists of more than 50% of stocks owned by well established companies in the high-tech sector, while the Dow Jones includes stocks of the 30 largest US corporations.
Since you have already done this, even though you don't own VTI, just break out this tool and determine how much of VTI is in tech. Should only take you a few minutes!
VTI is 29.9% tech per the Vanguard web site (or app). They’ve done all the work for you.
Since you have already done this, even though you don't own VTI, just break out this tool and determine how much of VTI is in tech. Should only take you a few minutes!
VTI is 29.9% tech per the Vanguard web site (or app). They’ve done all the work for you.
They must have not considered TSLA and AMZN as tech stocks.
I just picked The Dow early on as my annual measure. It doesn't mean ANYTHING other than that's a measure I use to judge my investments against. I could have picked sunny days or cats in my yard or candy bars I had that year. There is no apples to oranges.
Flagpole, don't take this too hard but you have no idea what you are talking about. And I say that respectfully. There is a huge difference between Dow and the Nasdaq and S & P.
A few of the difference:
The main differences between the NASDAQ and the Dow are12345:The Dow is purely a stock market index, while the Nasdaq is also a stock exchange.
The Dow includes stocks on both the NYSE as well as the Nasdaq, whereas any Nasdaq indexes will include only stocks listed on Nasdaq exchanges.
Nasdaq is based on the company's market capitalization and outstanding value of the stock, while the Dow Jones index is based on a price-weighted average index.
NASDAQ mainly comprises companies in the technology sector or companies in the growth stages, while Dow Jones is more about the stock price and is hence dependent on earnings.
The NASDAQ Composite consists of more than 50% of stocks owned by well established companies in the high-tech sector, while the Dow Jones includes stocks of the 30 largest US corporations.
A minor points for clarification:
There is some overlap in the indices in that the Dow does include tech companies including Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Cisco.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
orig. said that banking was a significant component of Nasd. (less than 5% weighted basis)
I just picked The Dow early on as my annual measure. It doesn't mean ANYTHING other than that's a measure I use to judge my investments against. I could have picked sunny days or cats in my yard or candy bars I had that year. There is no apples to oranges.
Flagpole, don't take this too hard but you have no idea what you are talking about. And I say that respectfully. There is a huge difference between Dow and the Nasdaq and S & P.
A few of the difference:
The main differences between the NASDAQ and the Dow are12345:The Dow is purely a stock market index, while the Nasdaq is also a stock exchange.
The Dow includes stocks on both the NYSE as well as the Nasdaq, whereas any Nasdaq indexes will include only stocks listed on Nasdaq exchanges.
Nasdaq is based on the company's market capitalization and outstanding value of the stock, while the Dow Jones index is based on a price-weighted average index.
NASDAQ mainly comprises companies in the technology sector or companies in the growth stages, while Dow Jones is more about the stock price and is hence dependent on earnings.
The NASDAQ Composite consists of more than 50% of stocks owned by well established companies in the high-tech sector, while the Dow Jones includes stocks of the 30 largest US corporations.
Why is it that you continue to think you know something that I don't know...and this goes for any topic known to man? What YOU are not understanding is that I picked an arbitrary measure when I started investing and I continued to use it. It means NOTHING other than how my stuff did that year against The Dow. For some reason you think I assign meaning to it. I don't. Again, you think investing is an intellectual and/or a macho game. It isn't. I know it's hard for you plebians here to understand that.
The only thing that REALLY matters is how much money I made (and so far have only reinvested) each year...it's even more important than percentages, because you can buy stuff with MONEY; not so much with percentages. I can change my measure to Cats In My Yard if you want. So far in 2023, I have seen 3 cats in my yard. I imagine there have been plenty more, but I will go only with what I have seen. I will assign a cat 4 percentage points, so 3 cats = 12%. So far, I am up over 15% this year, so I am beating The Cats In My Yard YTD so far. A DEAD cat is -4 percentage points. So far, I have never seen a dead cat in my yard.
Portfolio performance is commonly assessed based on a percentage metric, and investors commonly use that in comparison to established indices. This is done to evaluate the relative performance of different investment options, and is valuable in that an investor may steer investment decisions based on that assessment.
To the extent that the assessment might be valuable, it behooves investors to use standardized indices that also might inform their relative performance, and to that end, the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq would be better standards of comparison than the DJIA since they represent the scope of investing options available to most mutual fund investors more so than the 30 companies comprising the DJIA. The unique character of the DJIA makes it less valuable as a point of comparison for most investors. As an example, many work sponsored retirement plans offer a fund option similar to the S&P 500 index, but relatively few offer a fund option similar to the DJIA.
It also is beneficial for an investor to know the general makeup of their investments so they know if the they might be vulnerable to certain risks unique to certain sectors or companies of a certain market capitalization, for example.
Portfolio performance is commonly assessed based on a percentage metric, and investors commonly use that in comparison to established indices. This is done to evaluate the relative performance of different investment options, and is valuable in that an investor may steer investment decisions based on that assessment.
To the extent that the assessment might be valuable, it behooves investors to use standardized indices that also might inform their relative performance, and to that end, the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq would be better standards of comparison than the DJIA since they represent the scope of investing options available to most mutual fund investors more so than the 30 companies comprising the DJIA. The unique character of the DJIA makes it less valuable as a point of comparison for most investors. As an example, many work sponsored retirement plans offer a fund option similar to the S&P 500 index, but relatively few offer a fund option similar to the DJIA.
It also is beneficial for an investor to know the general makeup of their investments so they know if the they might be vulnerable to certain risks unique to certain sectors or companies of a certain market capitalization, for example.
Et tu, Brute?
1) I didn't pick The Dow to measure against because it was more indicative of anything else. It was an arbitrary pick.
2) It doesn't matter WHAT I chose to measure my annual performance against. Again, I could pick Cats In My Yard as the measure. The MAIN thing is just the annual gain I have made each year...THAT is by far the most important thing. I won't pay for a bowling alley in my house based on whether I beat the Dow that year...or whether I beat the S&P 500 or NASDAQ or Nikkei either.
3) Picking to measure against The Dow was just an interesting point...a lighthearted measure. Clearly, I could have choosen to measure against MANY different indices and track them all in my spreadsheet, but I opted not to.
4) I really only care about how much money I've made. I find it funny that so many of you get your panties in a bunch over my Dow comparison.
Portfolio performance is commonly assessed based on a percentage metric, and investors commonly use that in comparison to established indices. This is done to evaluate the relative performance of different investment options, and is valuable in that an investor may steer investment decisions based on that assessment.
To the extent that the assessment might be valuable, it behooves investors to use standardized indices that also might inform their relative performance, and to that end, the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq would be better standards of comparison than the DJIA since they represent the scope of investing options available to most mutual fund investors more so than the 30 companies comprising the DJIA. The unique character of the DJIA makes it less valuable as a point of comparison for most investors. As an example, many work sponsored retirement plans offer a fund option similar to the S&P 500 index, but relatively few offer a fund option similar to the DJIA.
It also is beneficial for an investor to know the general makeup of their investments so they know if the they might be vulnerable to certain risks unique to certain sectors or companies of a certain market capitalization, for example.
Et tu, Brute?
1) I didn't pick The Dow to measure against because it was more indicative of anything else. It was an arbitrary pick.
2) It doesn't matter WHAT I chose to measure my annual performance against. Again, I could pick Cats In My Yard as the measure. The MAIN thing is just the annual gain I have made each year...THAT is by far the most important thing. I won't pay for a bowling alley in my house based on whether I beat the Dow that year...or whether I beat the S&P 500 or NASDAQ or Nikkei either.
3) Picking to measure against The Dow was just an interesting point...a lighthearted measure. Clearly, I could have choosen to measure against MANY different indices and track them all in my spreadsheet, but I opted not to.
4) I really only care about how much money I've made. I find it funny that so many of you get your panties in a bunch over my Dow comparison.
My post was geared more to the broad public. Others reading here make investment decisions based on info they hear and pick up on places like this. So, it may not matter to you how your portfolio does relative to the broad market, but I hope that how their portfolios performed relative to the broader market (as measured by the S &P 500 and/or Nasdaq) would matter to most investors.
If one's point of comparison is the Dow (DJIA) only, they are shortchanging themselves enormously.
Flagpole, you do what you want, and I respect that you will.
Again, I think these issues for a broader audience are very important and it was to them that my comments were addressed.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
clarity
Not a terrible call from Burry (but not a good one either), and I know he reverses himself a lot so maybe this was a temporary call.
In any case, US stocks are up around 5% from when Burry apparently sold everything a year ago. His one pick, GEO, is up 7% over that year. Short the market, buy GEO and you have some alpha.
FXHedge @Fxhedgers MICHAEL BURRY HAS SOLD OUT OF EVERY POSITION IN PORTFOLIO; ONLY HOLDING IS 3.3M SHARES OF GEO GROUP COMPANY THAT INVESTS IN PRIVATE PRISONS AND MENTAL HEALTH FACILITIES 9:31 PM · Aug 15, 2022
MICHAEL BURRY HAS SOLD OUT OF EVERY POSITION IN PORTFOLIO; ONLY HOLDING IS 3.3M SHARES OF GEO GROUP COMPANY THAT INVESTS IN PRIVATE PRISONS AND MENTAL HEALTH FACILITIES
yowzers. GDP Now for the current quarter is up to +5.0%. Add in inflation and that's 8-9% nominal GDP growth. This is a great way to knock down the debt as a percent of GDP. Not sarcastic. Sort of a dream opportunity, as long as interest rates don't skyrocket.
That said, bond yields are indeed moving up to new cycle highs and that is hurting stocks.
But come on...5% real GDP growth is pretty amazing considering a year ago there was near unanimity that we'd have a recession, not a boom!
we are around 1.5 years since the all-time high SP500
9% below that high
27% up from the 52 week low.
Stuck in the middle, we are. Not great.
Bonds are supposed to help us out at times like these, when stocks go flat for years - providing regular income and return. But instead, we got slaughtered in bonds. Down 4% over the past year.
Global 60/40 has a meager 1% return over the past year.
we are around 1.5 years since the all-time high SP500
9% below that high
27% up from the 52 week low.
Stuck in the middle, we are. Not great.
Bonds are supposed to help us out at times like these, when stocks go flat for years - providing regular income and return. But instead, we got slaughtered in bonds. Down 4% over the past year.
Global 60/40 has a meager 1% return over the past year.