For the first time since it began keeping records, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday that U.S. consumers are carrying a collective $1 trillion in credit card debt.
The economy is doing so great that people are using their credit cards to make ends meet.
That's not the right way to read that. You have to remember that we are talking about AVERAGE AMERICANS here. When AVERAGE AMERICANS (and by that, I DO mean MOST Americans) feel secure in their earning power, they spend money like water, even going into debt. THAT'S why credit card debt is higher. It's not because more Americans are having to pay their electric bills with credit cards. They know they can get a job at the drop of a hat if they lose the one they have, so they are free wheeling with their spending.
One factor in Flagpole’s favor after year 2000 would be the higher representation of technology stocks outside of the Dow Industrial Average. As numerous posters have pointed out and Flagpole denies, he is likely exposed to 25% technology-like stocks (including AMZN and TSLA here).
Um...this is actually mostly CORRECT! Let me take a moment to collect myself...
...ok. I would say we can all debate what is "heavily weighted" in tech stocks. In today's market, it is pretty hard to AVOID tech stocks.
Your 25% is not far off. The last time I did a really thorough analysis of all of my holdings, tech stocks I hold were about 22%.
As I pointed out the other day, the S&P 500 has been up about 31% YTD in 2023, but my stuff is up just about 15% YTD, so I can't be too "heavily weighted" in tech stocks...though tech stocks are an important part of my holdings.
Of course, the same could be said for professional money managers. On average, they have been woeful.
To be clear, we are talking about mutual fund investing only? You mean a retail investor buying only mutual funds vs any stock index?
I was referring to management fees, pre-ETF era, .01 stock trading (changed from 1/8 pricing .125), and online platforms. I don’t recall the exact dates of these changes, but around year 2000.
One factor in Flagpole’s favor after year 2000 would be the higher representation of technology stocks outside of the Dow Industrial Average. As numerous posters have pointed out and Flagpole denies, he is likely exposed to 25% technology-like stocks (including AMZN and TSLA here).
Um...this is actually mostly CORRECT! Let me take a moment to collect myself...
...ok. I would say we can all debate what is "heavily weighted" in tech stocks. In today's market, it is pretty hard to AVOID tech stocks.
Your 25% is not far off. The last time I did a really thorough analysis of all of my holdings, tech stocks I hold were about 22%.
As I pointed out the other day, the S&P 500 has been up about 31% YTD in 2023, but my stuff is up just about 15% YTD, so I can't be too "heavily weighted" in tech stocks...though tech stocks are an important part of my holdings.
As inferred in my post AMZN and TSLA are in the Consumer Discretionary sector, but investors trade them as Technology Sector. Perhaps a better way to describe your exposure would be High Multiple Growth Stocks.
Um...this is actually mostly CORRECT! Let me take a moment to collect myself...
...ok. I would say we can all debate what is "heavily weighted" in tech stocks. In today's market, it is pretty hard to AVOID tech stocks.
Your 25% is not far off. The last time I did a really thorough analysis of all of my holdings, tech stocks I hold were about 22%.
As I pointed out the other day, the S&P 500 has been up about 31% YTD in 2023, but my stuff is up just about 15% YTD, so I can't be too "heavily weighted" in tech stocks...though tech stocks are an important part of my holdings.
As inferred in my post AMZN and TSLA are in the Consumer Discretionary sector, but investors trade them as Technology Sector. Perhaps a better way to describe your exposure would be High Multiple Growth Stocks.
I would argue that Amazon is as much a tech company as it is a retailer, and probably more so. It provides massive amounts of web streaming, online services, digital advertising, cloud computing, and AI.
Tesla is more debatable, but it acts like a Big Tech even if it is a car maker. It does a lot with energy generation, too.
Though your point that one is fundamentally a car maker and the other is the predominant online retailer is well taken. Nonetheless, both are commonly considered in the camp of Big Tech.
As inferred in my post AMZN and TSLA are in the Consumer Discretionary sector, but investors trade them as Technology Sector. Perhaps a better way to describe your exposure would be High Multiple Growth Stocks.
I would argue that Amazon is as much a tech company as it is a retailer, and probably more so. It provides massive amounts of web streaming, online services, digital advertising, cloud computing, and AI.
Tesla is more debatable, but it acts like a Big Tech even if it is a car maker. It does a lot with energy generation, too.
Though your point that one is fundamentally a car maker and the other is the predominant online retailer is well taken. Nonetheless, both are commonly considered in the camp of Big Tech.
The technology sector also contributes disproportionately to index trends, being one of only three sectors (of 11) to have better long term performance than the index as a whole. In a portfolio with 22% tech, there’s no possible way it has outperformed any major US index over most of the last 35 years.
Most investors have little idea of their actual exposure to technology like high multiple stocks. For example, among the top ten holdings of the iShares IVW Large Company Growth ETF has approximately 42% exposure.
I would argue that Amazon is as much a tech company as it is a retailer, and probably more so. It provides massive amounts of web streaming, online services, digital advertising, cloud computing, and AI.
Tesla is more debatable, but it acts like a Big Tech even if it is a car maker. It does a lot with energy generation, too.
Though your point that one is fundamentally a car maker and the other is the predominant online retailer is well taken. Nonetheless, both are commonly considered in the camp of Big Tech.
Agreed. What say you Flagpole?
I would agree that Amazon and Tesla can be considered tech companies...and also agree that Amazon is a no-brainer there, but when you look at all Tesla does, yes, it's a tech company even if it isn't as obvious as Amazon.
Could any set of predictions be worse than this one? I mean everything wrong. Top to bottom. And it was from only 6 months ago.
Although I suppose it's true that in Feb a recession was not priced in. Ok. But that was the market being correct.
Seth Golden @SethCL J.P. Morgan's Kolonovic What's wrong with you people, get the frig out Bonds over stocks in 2023 Risk/Reward skewed heavily to downside Recession not priced, likely 2H23 #recession
One factor in Flagpole’s favor after year 2000 would be the higher representation of technology stocks outside of the Dow Industrial Average. As numerous posters have pointed out and Flagpole denies, he is likely exposed to 25% technology-like stocks (including AMZN and TSLA here).
Um...this is actually mostly CORRECT! Let me take a moment to collect myself...
...ok. I would say we can all debate what is "heavily weighted" in tech stocks. In today's market, it is pretty hard to AVOID tech stocks.
Your 25% is not far off. The last time I did a really thorough analysis of all of my holdings, tech stocks I hold were about 22%.
As I pointed out the other day, the S&P 500 has been up about 31% YTD in 2023, but my stuff is up just about 15% YTD, so I can't be too "heavily weighted" in tech stocks...though tech stocks are an important part of my holdings.
You probably hold considerably more than 22% in tech stocks. You are a big Vanguard guy, and if you look at just one Vanguard fund - VTI (Vanguard Total Stock market) - 8 of the top 10 holdings are tech stocks and make up about 27% of the fund. VTI has about 3800 stock holdings. Just looking at the top 50 holdings of the 3800 holdings - high tech makes up about 35%. So if you look at the rest of the holdings who knows how much high tech will rise above 35%. Other Vanguard funds are similar.
Could any set of predictions be worse than this one? I mean everything wrong. Top to bottom. And it was from only 6 months ago.
Although I suppose it's true that in Feb a recession was not priced in. Ok. But that was the market being correct.
Seth Golden @SethCL J.P. Morgan's Kolonovic What's wrong with you people, get the frig out Bonds over stocks in 2023 Risk/Reward skewed heavily to downside Recession not priced, likely 2H23 #recession
Any one listening to Kolonovic is nuts. His predictions are missing left and right. He was a huge optimist in the market last year (when we had the huge sell-off) and now he is way off again this year. Do just the opposite of what he recommends.
Um...this is actually mostly CORRECT! Let me take a moment to collect myself...
...ok. I would say we can all debate what is "heavily weighted" in tech stocks. In today's market, it is pretty hard to AVOID tech stocks.
Your 25% is not far off. The last time I did a really thorough analysis of all of my holdings, tech stocks I hold were about 22%.
As I pointed out the other day, the S&P 500 has been up about 31% YTD in 2023, but my stuff is up just about 15% YTD, so I can't be too "heavily weighted" in tech stocks...though tech stocks are an important part of my holdings.
You probably hold considerably more than 22% in tech stocks.
From Flagpole’s recent posts his performance is around a percentage below the S&P 500, which may include a substantial cash reserve. So, depending on inclusion and the size of this reserve, his tech position could be much higher than that of the S&P 500.
Hmm...this actually looked cool, and I was very interested in running my stuff through it, but when I put the name of my funds in there (and it lists out all the stocks that make up the fund), it won't progress when I click "Next." It bonks on the names of the funds...ALL of them. So, not sure how it recognizes the names so that it can list the stocks in them but then says it can't recognize the name to progress. Weird. Oh well.
