Flagpole, nobody on here with any understanding of investing and market behaviour believes your fanciful claims of having, purely by chance, beaten the DOW 32 out of 35 years, or whatever it is. While I think most of us respect you for your experience, knowledge and practical advice, we are all gently mocking that impossible claim. You have an outsized ego and do not like to be wrong. You made that claim a long time ago and just can’t let yourself let go of it, lest you be shown to have made a blunder in public, probably your biggest fear. Your best defence is to avoid sharing any particulars, which would of course reveal your error and confirm the basis for our gentle mockery.
I suggest you stick with giving good advice based on your long experience, and let the unsupportable and impossible claim fade quietly in LRC history, along with some of your old and unloved troll handles from way back in our early days (zipperhead, Jim Rome, etc). And rest comfortably on whatever wealth you accumulated, in whatever way it really happened.
Flagpole has been very vague about beating the "market" all these years. He never said which market he has been measuring his portfolio against. He never said the Dow. Flagpole, which market have you been using to measure your portfolio against? The Dow, the Nasdaq, the S & P? You would be comparing apples to oranges. The Dow only has 30 Industrials. The Nasdaq is heavy on high tech. The S & P has 500 varied stocks. But your portfolio has a much more diverse set of components than just any of those. So, when you are saying you have beaten the "market" which market specifically are you referring to?
1) Sally, did you hit your head? Are you beginning to have memory problems? I have ALWAYS said my measure is against The DOW. Igy (mistakenly) has made fun of me for using that as a measure (I say mistakenly, because he thinks I do it because I find value in The Dow...nope, I just use that as my very arbitrary measuring stick).
2) You teach me nothing about the makeup of those indices. Get serious with you trying to teach me something. I mean, seriously. Good freakin' grief.
3) I have never declared to have beaten "the market." Some of you (including YOU) have said I said that, but you're wrong. In fact, I have corrected you and others when you've said that. I have ALWAYS said all of those years were beating "THE DOW." It's all here in this thread. Go find it if you wish. I have talked about putting money into "the market," (because I invest in lots of indices) but I have ONLY talked about winning or losing annually with regard to The DOW.
4) You people are so very interested in my investing. Weird.
GREAT timing on your part! You purchased both AAPL and NVDA on Monday and they both had a big decline on Wednesday. Next time tell us ahead what you purchased and when.
FYI - very, very few investors are able to time the market. Like no one is able to.
Hi didn't beat anything until he sells. As the saying goes, knowing when to buy is the easy part.
Secondly, how much potential appreciation does he miss out on while he waits for an entry point to open a short position? My strong suspicion is that these small and infrequent gains are less than one would accrue from buying and holding the stock or etf for the price appreciation.
Flagpole has been very vague about beating the "market" all these years. He never said which market he has been measuring his portfolio against. He never said the Dow. Flagpole, which market have you been using to measure your portfolio against? The Dow, the Nasdaq, the S & P? You would be comparing apples to oranges. The Dow only has 30 Industrials. The Nasdaq is heavy on high tech. The S & P has 500 varied stocks. But your portfolio has a much more diverse set of components than just any of those. So, when you are saying you have beaten the "market" which market specifically are you referring to?
1) Sally, did you hit your head? Are you beginning to have memory problems? I have ALWAYS said my measure is against The DOW. Igy (mistakenly) has made fun of me for using that as a measure (I say mistakenly, because he thinks I do it because I find value in The Dow...nope, I just use that as my very arbitrary measuring stick).
2) You teach me nothing about the makeup of those indices. Get serious with you trying to teach me something. I mean, seriously. Good freakin' grief.
3) I have never declared to have beaten "the market." Some of you (including YOU) have said I said that, but you're wrong. In fact, I have corrected you and others when you've said that. I have ALWAYS said all of those years were beating "THE DOW." It's all here in this thread. Go find it if you wish. I have talked about putting money into "the market," (because I invest in lots of indices) but I have ONLY talked about winning or losing annually with regard to The DOW.
4) You people are so very interested in my investing. Weird.
Well, Flagpole, if it is the Dow, you ARE comparing apples to oranges. The Dow only has the 30 industrials and is relatively conservative. Your portfolio would include everything and you would have many hi-tech stocks/funds and your portfolio would have done great some years and awful some years. No way in heck are you beating the Dow all those years.
FYI - very, very few investors are able to time the market. Like no one is able to.
Hi didn't beat anything until he sells. As the saying goes, knowing when to buy is the easy part.
Secondly, how much potential appreciation does he miss out on while he waits for an entry point to open a short position? My strong suspicion is that these small and infrequent gains are less than one would accrue from buying and holding the stock or etf for the price appreciation.
Seattle, NO ONE wins by hopping in and out of the market. You win by buying a well-diversified portfolio and holding it for a number of years. Again, YOU CAN NOT time the market. Everyone new to investing should learn that right off the bat.
… it would be an almost impossible undertaking for me to go back and find not only all the funds I have owned in the past but also the amount I had in each fund at the time. Just not a possible thing at all.
Well, that’s convenient. In your head, you beat the DOW all those years but you don’t have any records.
My rejection of your claim is not emotional, as you claim. I’m just fairly good with math, also a bit older and more experienced than you.
Ha! You people are hilarious. I have invested with several different companies since 1989 due to jobs I had at the time. Charles Schwab, Merrill Lynch, The Hartford, Fidelity, Vanguard. I changed jobs a couple times and then was part of a company sale once where the 401k provider was changed, and then eventually I stopped working for a company and struck out on my own. I would roll over stuff to my Vanguard IRA when that happened. I kept no paper records of what I had with The Hartford or Schwab or Merrill Lynch. I have my spreadsheet that goes all the way back to 1989 for my own records, but no, I don't have a paper trail of all those earlier years. That would be silly. 1989 was 34 years ago!
Well, that’s convenient. In your head, you beat the DOW all those years but you don’t have any records.
My rejection of your claim is not emotional, as you claim. I’m just fairly good with math, also a bit older and more experienced than you.
Ha! You people are hilarious. I have invested with several different companies since 1989 due to jobs I had at the time. Charles Schwab, Merrill Lynch, The Hartford, Fidelity, Vanguard. I changed jobs a couple times and then was part of a company sale once where the 401k provider was changed, and then eventually I stopped working for a company and struck out on my own. I would roll over stuff to my Vanguard IRA when that happened. I kept no paper records of what I had with The Hartford or Schwab or Merrill Lynch. I have my spreadsheet that goes all the way back to 1989 for my own records, but no, I don't have a paper trail of all those earlier years. That would be silly. 1989 was 34 years ago!
Nah, your response is emotional.
You had brokerage accounts, yes? All of my brokerage accounts I can go back and find what I bought and when I bought. Everything should be on-line.
FYI - very, very few investors are able to time the market. Like no one is able to.
Hi didn't beat anything until he sells. As the saying goes, knowing when to buy is the easy part.
Secondly, how much potential appreciation does he miss out on while he waits for an entry point to open a short position? My strong suspicion is that these small and infrequent gains are less than one would accrue from buying and holding the stock or etf for the price appreciation.
Nah...I call BS to that. Sorry, brother. If The Dow goes up 10% in a calendar year and my stuff goes up 10.2%, then I beat the Dow that year, regardless of whether I sold or not.
For the record, I haven't sold a single thing since 1989 when I started investing. I will not sell anything either until The Lovely Mrs. Flagpole retires now in less than 5 years.
Ha! You people are hilarious. I have invested with several different companies since 1989 due to jobs I had at the time. Charles Schwab, Merrill Lynch, The Hartford, Fidelity, Vanguard. I changed jobs a couple times and then was part of a company sale once where the 401k provider was changed, and then eventually I stopped working for a company and struck out on my own. I would roll over stuff to my Vanguard IRA when that happened. I kept no paper records of what I had with The Hartford or Schwab or Merrill Lynch. I have my spreadsheet that goes all the way back to 1989 for my own records, but no, I don't have a paper trail of all those earlier years. That would be silly. 1989 was 34 years ago!
Nah, your response is emotional.
You had brokerage accounts, yes? All of my brokerage accounts I can go back and find what I bought and when I bought. Everything should be on-line.
Brokerage accounts that have been closed for 30 years? Nope. I don't have an account with The Hartford anymore (and NEVER had an online account with them) or Merrill Lynch or Schwab. I can't log on and see what I held with them 20, 30+ years ago. I suppose it is POSSIBLE they still have my records somewhere in a database, but I couldn't care less to see it, and even if I could, why would I waste all of that time to bring up stuff so that YOU especially could misinterpret it and not understand what it is you are reading? You've already proven that you don't know how to read how a fund is doing.
Hi didn't beat anything until he sells. As the saying goes, knowing when to buy is the easy part.
Secondly, how much potential appreciation does he miss out on while he waits for an entry point to open a short position? My strong suspicion is that these small and infrequent gains are less than one would accrue from buying and holding the stock or etf for the price appreciation.
Nah...I call BS to that. Sorry, brother. If The Dow goes up 10% in a calendar year and my stuff goes up 10.2%, then I beat the Dow that year, regardless of whether I sold or not.
For the record, I haven't sold a single thing since 1989 when I started investing. I will not sell anything either until The Lovely Mrs. Flagpole retires now in less than 5 years.
Flagpole, if you haven''t sold anything since 1989 everything you consider gains are unrealized gains. Dude, get it together!
4) You people are so very interested in my investing. Weird.
Personally, I couldn't care less about your investing; I don't believe a word of it, apart from the generally sound advice you share. I do enjoy needling you about your outrageous claims though. I get a little bit of joy from that, admittedly.
4) You people are so very interested in my investing. Weird.
Personally, I couldn't care less about your investing; I don't believe a word of it, apart from the generally sound advice you share. I do enjoy needling you about your outrageous claims though. I get a little bit of joy from that, admittedly.
Flagpole - how are you measuring your portfolio's return. You obviously have no clue about the stock market but how are you measuring your portfolio's performance - how are you figuring in dividends? Do you even know what a dividend is? Your lack of knowledge about the "market" is startling. Maybe dial it down a bit - you are looking pretty bad.
Hi didn't beat anything until he sells. As the saying goes, knowing when to buy is the easy part.
Secondly, how much potential appreciation does he miss out on while he waits for an entry point to open a short position? My strong suspicion is that these small and infrequent gains are less than one would accrue from buying and holding the stock or etf for the price appreciation.
Seattle, NO ONE wins by hopping in and out of the market. You win by buying a well-diversified portfolio and holding it for a number of years. Again, YOU CAN NOT time the market. Everyone new to investing should learn that right off the bat.
Sally, it's like you read one brochure about investing and quit there.
Get with the program.
You are talking about averages. On average, investors do not beat an indices by trying to time their trades. On average. That means that some do, though most will not.
Same goes for diversification. And the same may be said about an actively managed mutual fund over a passively managed one.
But do understand that some do beat said standards.
And lastly, you totally took my comment out of context. I was simply telling Igy that he cannot consider his unrealized gain as a realized gain until he sells. Presumably he will, and I suspect it is not a long buy and hold position by nature of it being a short sell position.
Nasdaq ($COMPQ) is still fighting against turning red. NYSE and Nasdaq breadth are already negative. NYSE had 1892 net advances at 10 AM ET this morning, so it is quite a reversal.
Another in a long line of post-pandemic economics showing up people who think it's never 'different this time.' We've seen upteen different reminders this year that yes, it is different this particular time. Post-pandemic economics have simply struck out on their own.
Ian Harnett @IanRHarnett The Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey gave plenty of reason to stick with the view that a 'Hard Landing' is more likely than a 'Soft Landing', or 'No Landing'. Maybe it will be different this time, but for 30 years the SLOOS has signalled where Unemployment is heading!
5:41 PM · Feb 12, 2023 · 158.3K Views
The Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey gave plenty of reason to stick with the view that a 'Hard Landing' is more likely than a 'Soft Landing', or 'No Landing'. Maybe it will be different this time, but for 30 years the SLOOS has signalled where Unemployment is heading! pic.twitter.com/vWmmY617EM
I asked chatGPT about the chances of outperforming the DOW 30 years in a row (not exactly FP’s ludicrous claim, but close enough…), and here’s what she had to say:
Consistently outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for 30 years in a row is an extremely challenging feat. The DJIA is composed of 30 large, established companies that are considered representative of the overall stock market. It is widely followed and analyzed by financial professionals, and it is difficult to consistently beat its performance over extended periods of time. There are a few reasons why consistently outperforming the DJIA for 30 years is unlikely: Efficient Market Hypothesis: This theory suggests that stock prices reflect all available information and adjust rapidly to any new information. If the market is efficient, it becomes challenging to consistently identify undervalued or overvalued stocks that can lead to consistent outperformance. Randomness and Luck: Even skilled investors can experience periods of underperformance due to market fluctuations and unexpected events. Over a 30-year horizon, luck and random variations can play a significant role in investment outcomes. Long-Term Trends: Over the long term, stock market returns tend to revert to the mean. This means that periods of exceptional performance may be followed by periods of more modest returns, and vice versa. Changing Market Conditions: Economic, technological, and geopolitical changes can significantly impact the performance of different industries and companies. An investment strategy that worked well in one era might not be as effective in another. Compounding and Scaling: As investment portfolios grow over time, it becomes increasingly challenging to find opportunities that can generate outsized returns without significantly increasing risk. While there have been instances of investors or fund managers achieving impressive long-term performance, such instances are rare and often accompanied by high levels of risk and volatility. It's important to note that even professional investors with substantial resources can struggle to consistently outperform the market over such an extended period. Investors interested in achieving solid long-term returns often focus on diversification, a balanced asset allocation, and a disciplined investment strategy. Rather than aiming to consistently beat the market, a more realistic goal might be to achieve returns that are in line with the market's overall performance while managing risk and minimizing costs.
A couple of points, prior to around year 2000 it would be challenging for any retail investor to beat any index. The structure and cost to participate would be a drag on performance of about one percentage point annually. One factor in Flagpole’s favor after year 2000 would be the higher representation of technology stocks outside of the Dow Industrial Average. As numerous posters have pointed out and Flagpole denies, he is likely exposed to 25% technology-like stocks (including AMZN and TSLA here).
One factor in Flagpole’s favor after year 2000 would be the higher representation of technology stocks outside of the Dow Industrial Average. As numerous posters have pointed out and Flagpole denies, he is likely exposed to 25% technology-like stocks (including AMZN and TSLA here).
Nope, that doesn’t really work in his favor. Over the past 35 years, from August 1988, overall performance of DJIA and SP500 are nearly indistinguishable. Annual gains of both indices are very similar, on average.
I agree he must have around 1/4 to 1/3 tech stocks if he has invested the way he’s let on. No way around it if he is diversified in mainly US stocks and beating the DOW the way he claims. No other sector, let alone diversified holdings, by luck alone, would have performed as he would have us believe.
4) You people are so very interested in my investing. Weird.
Personally, I couldn't care less about your investing; I don't believe a word of it, apart from the generally sound advice you share. I do enjoy needling you about your outrageous claims though. I get a little bit of joy from that, admittedly.
Personally, I couldn't care less about your investing; I don't believe a word of it, apart from the generally sound advice you share. I do enjoy needling you about your outrageous claims though. I get a little bit of joy from that, admittedly.
Flagpole - how are you measuring your portfolio's return. You obviously have no clue about the stock market but how are you measuring your portfolio's performance - how are you figuring in dividends? Do you even know what a dividend is? Your lack of knowledge about the "market" is startling. Maybe dial it down a bit - you are looking pretty bad.
This shouldn't be a shock as it's pretty simple stuff.
I take what I put into the market in a given year, and I multiply that by the number of Hondas I have seen and divide by the number of Volkswagens I have seen...in that calendar year. The caveat is that cars on dealership lots don't count. If that number is higher than how The Dow has done, then I have beaten The Dow. Duh!