Igy - I love all these fancy graphs and charts you post but all I care about is that NVDA is up 13,000% in the last 10 years. Do any of your charts show that?
For the first time since it began keeping records, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday that U.S. consumers are carrying a collective $1 trillion in credit card debt.
The economy is doing so great that people are using their credit cards to make ends meet.
… but all I care about is that NVDA is up 13,000% in the last 10 years.
Did you buy it ten years ago and hold it? If so, so must be nearly as rich as Flagpole! For every stock that has appreciated like that there are dozens, maybe hundreds, that took the opposite path, and distinguishing them is only ever possible in retrospect. Therein lies the main challenge in fixating on outliers like that.
Igy - I love all these fancy graphs and charts you post but all I care about is that NVDA is up 13,000% in the last 10 years. Do any of your charts show that?
My leveraged short against NVDA and AI is up 10% on a purchase made Monday? What is that annualize at?
… but all I care about is that NVDA is up 13,000% in the last 10 years.
Did you buy it ten years ago and hold it? If so, so must be nearly as rich as Flagpole! For every stock that has appreciated like that there are dozens, maybe hundreds, that took the opposite path, and distinguishing them is only ever possible in retrospect. Therein lies the main challenge in fixating on outliers like that.
No one is nearly as rich as Flagpole. He has beaten the market (he doesn't even specify which market he has beaten) the last 32 of 33 years. The odds of that are 1 in 6 billion. So someone in Ohio is the only person in the world to have beaten the market 32 of 33 years. We are are not priviledged enough to know how he makes his stock decisions.
Currently at $180. I guess that was one of Igy's rare misses.
My leveraged short against AAPL and the company’s lack of growth is up 7% since purchased on Monday. What does that annualize at?
A lot - can you list your other leveraged shorts you have on board so we can track your profits on those? Or do you prefer to say what you had after the fact?
My leveraged short against AAPL and the company’s lack of growth is up 7% since purchased on Monday. What does that annualize at?
A lot - can you list your other leveraged shorts you have on board so we can track your profits on those? Or do you prefer to say what you had after the fact?
I have given that to you in the past. I realize that you are at least a decade younger than me. Early onset dementia? SOXS and TECS. I am in and out of these positions. Some lots purchased month end are up 20%.
Here's a good one. Although in retrospect it's from an economist so we knew it would be wrong.
A truple whammy - using the inverted yield curve AND a recession predictor at 100%, AND the sarcastic 'different this time' formulation, Rosenberg thought 2013 would be a recession year.
Instead we are roaring ahead, almost a boom.
240k followers!
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie The 2s/10s yield curve has now inverted to over -80 bps. Last time here? Try April 1981. And the double-dip recession was three months away. Different this time? Bloomberg recession model now at 100% for 2023, so I somehow doubt it.
1:43 PM · Feb 10, 2023 · 268.6K Views
The 2s/10s yield curve has now inverted to over -80 bps. Last time here? Try April 1981. And the double-dip recession was three months away. Different this time? Bloomberg recession model now at 100% for 2023, so I somehow doubt it.#RosenbergResearch
Did you buy it ten years ago and hold it? If so, so must be nearly as rich as Flagpole! For every stock that has appreciated like that there are dozens, maybe hundreds, that took the opposite path, and distinguishing them is only ever possible in retrospect. Therein lies the main challenge in fixating on outliers like that.
No one is nearly as rich as Flagpole. He has beaten the market (he doesn't even specify which market he has beaten) the last 32 of 33 years. The odds of that are 1 in 6 billion. So someone in Ohio is the only person in the world to have beaten the market 32 of 33 years. We are are not priviledged enough to know how he makes his stock decisions.
1) Your odds are crap.
2) I have already mentioned several times that I have been very lucky, especially early on when I didn't have a lot in the market and made a bunch of changes all the time. Just very fortunate. I am no stock picking genius. The ONLY thing I am with stocks that makes me better than most (only within mutual funds) is that I BUY them like clockwork and without fail and have since 1989.
3) I have also tipped the scales in my favor by putting in extra mid year if the DOW (I only monitor against the DOW) was significantly down. This for sure had me win against the Dow at least 4-5 times (and yes, I only counted the gains, not the additions).
4) Also, I have now lost to the Dow 2 times since 1989 as I lost big last year, so you were wrong there too.
5) As my stuff is SO solid now (meaning I no longer switch things around a lot), I expect to lose to the Dow much more often than has been the case so far. It WON'T be this year though! So far YTD, I am up 15.45%, but the Dow stands at +5.96%...and no agip, I am not heavily weighted in tech stocks...I HAVE a lot of tech stocks because I have a lot of stocks generally, but I am not heavily weighted there. For this year, I might WISH I were heavily weighted in tech stocks, because the NASDAQ is up over 31% so far YTD! I don't play that game though...at least not in the last 20 years at least. Since my first about 10 years of investing, I have embarked on making my holdings as diverse as possible, and that's where I stand today.
6) Don't be jealous, Sally. Not good to go through your life that way.
Flagpole, nobody on here with any understanding of investing and market behaviour believes your fanciful claims of having, purely by chance, beaten the DOW 32 out of 35 years, or whatever it is. While I think most of us respect you for your experience, knowledge and practical advice, we are all gently mocking that impossible claim. You have an outsized ego and do not like to be wrong. You made that claim a long time ago and just can’t let yourself let go of it, lest you be shown to have made a blunder in public, probably your biggest fear. Your best defence is to avoid sharing any particulars, which would of course reveal your error and confirm the basis for our gentle mockery.
I suggest you stick with giving good advice based on your long experience, and let the unsupportable and impossible claim fade quietly in LRC history, along with some of your old and unloved troll handles from way back in our early days (zipperhead, Jim Rome, etc). And rest comfortably on whatever wealth you accumulated, in whatever way it really happened.
Flagpole, nobody on here with any understanding of investing and market behaviour believes your fanciful claims of having, purely by chance, beaten the DOW 32 out of 35 years, or whatever it is. While I think most of us respect you for your experience, knowledge and practical advice, we are all gently mocking that impossible claim. You have an outsized ego and do not like to be wrong. You made that claim a long time ago and just can’t let yourself let go of it, lest you be shown to have made a blunder in public, probably your biggest fear. Your best defence is to avoid sharing any particulars, which would of course reveal your error and confirm the basis for our gentle mockery.
I suggest you stick with giving good advice based on your long experience, and let the unsupportable and impossible claim fade quietly in LRC history, along with some of your old and unloved troll handles from way back in our early days (zipperhead, Jim Rome, etc). And rest comfortably on whatever wealth you accumulated, in whatever way it really happened.
Well, you're silly. It is for sure possible, because I have done it. Would you believe someone who just pretty much exactly matched the Dow (without just purchasing the Dow) all those years? What about if someone LOST to the Dow each year but only by .00000001% every time? You are having an emotional response here, and it's not logical. I have no pride attached to this fact, no machismo attached to this fact, no nothing other than a grateful feeling.
Annual milestones are just arbitrary really. It ONLY matters how you have done over time. Also, you DO realize that The Dow is just one Index and is not indicative of the market as a whole, right? Most would argue that it's not even a good measure of the market as a whole (I agree with that). It's just the milestone I have used annually.
Regarding sharing:
1) I did that once upon a time and had know-nothing Sally push back hard on me even though he had the wrong information and didn't know how to read info regarding a specific fund. He eventually realized he was wrong, but it wasn't without more time on my part than I wanted to devote to that (and yes, I could have ignored his idiocy).
2) I could list all of my funds today, but that would tell you nothing about what I held in 1989 or 1995 or 2001 or 2011 or 2018 or anything in between. You wouldn't be able to determine anything from that. Also, it would be an almost impossible undertaking for me to go back and find not only all the funds I have owned in the past but also the amount I had in each fund at the time. Just not a possible thing at all.
Flagpole, nobody on here with any understanding of investing and market behaviour believes your fanciful claims of having, purely by chance, beaten the DOW 32 out of 35 years, or whatever it is. While I think most of us respect you for your experience, knowledge and practical advice, we are all gently mocking that impossible claim. You have an outsized ego and do not like to be wrong. You made that claim a long time ago and just can’t let yourself let go of it, lest you be shown to have made a blunder in public, probably your biggest fear. Your best defence is to avoid sharing any particulars, which would of course reveal your error and confirm the basis for our gentle mockery.
I suggest you stick with giving good advice based on your long experience, and let the unsupportable and impossible claim fade quietly in LRC history, along with some of your old and unloved troll handles from way back in our early days (zipperhead, Jim Rome, etc). And rest comfortably on whatever wealth you accumulated, in whatever way it really happened.
Flagpole has been very vague about beating the "market" all these years. He never said which market he has been measuring his portfolio against. He never said the Dow. Flagpole, which market have you been using to measure your portfolio against? The Dow, the Nasdaq, the S & P? You would be comparing apples to oranges. The Dow only has 30 Industrials. The Nasdaq is heavy on high tech. The S & P has 500 varied stocks. But your portfolio has a much more diverse set of components than just any of those. So, when you are saying you have beaten the "market" which market specifically are you referring to?
Currently at $180. I guess that was one of Igy's rare misses.
My leveraged short against AAPL and the company’s lack of growth is up 7% since purchased on Monday. What does that annualize at?
GREAT timing on your part! You purchased both AAPL and NVDA on Monday and they both had a big decline on Wednesday. Next time tell us ahead what you purchased and when.
My leveraged short against AAPL and the company’s lack of growth is up 7% since purchased on Monday. What does that annualize at?
GREAT timing on your part! You purchased both AAPL and NVDA on Monday and they both had a big decline on Wednesday. Next time tell us ahead what you purchased and when.
FYI - very, very few investors are able to time the market. Like no one is able to.
… it would be an almost impossible undertaking for me to go back and find not only all the funds I have owned in the past but also the amount I had in each fund at the time. Just not a possible thing at all.
Well, that’s convenient. In your head, you beat the DOW all those years but you don’t have any records.
My rejection of your claim is not emotional, as you claim. I’m just fairly good with math, also a bit older and more experienced than you.
GREAT timing on your part! You purchased both AAPL and NVDA on Monday and they both had a big decline on Wednesday. Next time tell us ahead what you purchased and when.
FYI - very, very few investors are able to time the market. Like no one is able to.
OK, this is less about timing the market, and more about valuations, and a hedge. That said, I still believe your reliance on a 140 year investment time horizon is misplaced. :-)
… it would be an almost impossible undertaking for me to go back and find not only all the funds I have owned in the past but also the amount I had in each fund at the time. Just not a possible thing at all.
Well, that’s convenient. In your head, you beat the DOW all those years but you don’t have any records.
My rejection of your claim is not emotional, as you claim. I’m just fairly good with math, also a bit older and more experienced than you.
His dog ate all of his investment records but rest assured he knows he beat the market 32 of 33 years - which, Flagpole, IS a likelihood of 1 in 6 billion. If you disagree with my math, show me the odds of beating the market 32 of 33 years.