57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Your "solution" is exactly what we are doing. But "ignore it and hope it's OK" is not a real solution.

The problem with this approach is that we have the worst of both worlds. We get a terrible economy as long as the virus is allowed to rage out of control. Even if hospitals are not overflowing, that's still a lot of suffering and a lot of exhausted nurses and doctors. And even if we hover along at "only" 500 deaths per day for the rest of 2020, we still get over 200,000 Americans who will die needlessly this year.

And look what will happen to our schools. Most will try to open in the fall, but go ask what their plan is for when a student tests positive. How many days will you have to close the school? How many of our teachers are going to be afraid to come back to the classroom? What about older teachers? And that's just scratching the surface of questions they don't know how to answer.

The way to get through this is to take the problem head on like some other nations have done.

1) Shut it down

2) Stop the spread

3) Test and trace

The nations who have done that are already out of lockdown, have a tiny number of cases, and an economy that is basically back to normal.

But America's only hope is a miracle, a vaccine, or an effective treatment. And as you said, there is no guarantee when that will come.

Georgia (and the US) can get over this by simply testing, tracing, and isolating.

Get tested people. If you're not getting tested, you're doing a disservice to your community.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

brazen2 wrote:

Georgia (and the US) can get over this by simply testing, tracing, and isolating.

Get tested people. If you're not getting tested, you're doing a disservice to your community.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

brazen2 wrote:

Georgia (and the US) can get over this by simply testing, tracing, and isolating.

Get tested people. If you're not getting tested, you're doing a disservice to your community.

You keep saying that and yet you refuse to answer even the most basic questions.

Let's say you are right and we can fix this with just test/trace/isolate in Georgia.

Does that mean everyone in Georgia should be tested?

If so, how often?

agip wrote:

brazen2 wrote:

Georgia (and the US) can get over this by simply testing, tracing, and isolating.

Get tested people. If you're not getting tested, you're doing a disservice to your community.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Not sure how that makes sense. 5x the number of people in Italy, more than 5x the resources.

Why can 5 nations with 66 million people each do tracing but 1 nation with 330 million cannot (beyond mere incompetence)?

agip wrote:

brazen2 wrote:

Georgia (and the US) can get over this by simply testing, tracing, and isolating.

Get tested people. If you're not getting tested, you're doing a disservice to your community.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Yes, that's why he refuses to answer my questions. I think this is the third or fourth time I've asked.

Not sure if he is trolling or if he really doesn't understand.

1100 wrote:

agip wrote:

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Not sure how that makes sense. 5x the number of people in Italy, more than 5x the resources.

Why can 5 nations with 66 million people each do tracing but 1 nation with 330 million cannot (beyond mere incompetence)?

Nations still need to do test/trace/isolate. But a larger nation can not rely on that as its only tool. It just won't scale until you bring the number of cases down significantly.

agip wrote:

brazen2 wrote:

Georgia (and the US) can get over this by simply testing, tracing, and isolating.

Get tested people. If you're not getting tested, you're doing a disservice to your community.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Trying to shut down a nation of 330 million didn’t work. What else ya’ll got?

agip wrote:

[quote]brazen2 wrote:

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Japan avoided shutdowns through their testing and tracing program. 125 million people.

I think what you are really saying is that tracing is very difficult in a nation of 300 million people when we prioritize 4-6 weeks of economic activity over effectively controlling the virus. Texas had 3,500 new positives today, over 3,000 the day before and has been climbing right through the 2,000s. The governor said that there are plenty of hospital beds and no going back on restrictions. School will be open in the fall. The governor will not even let local governments require face masks because it is a matter of personal responsibility (this guy also vetoed a prohibition on texting and driving on the same rationale).

Idaho closed the third week of March, moving to a four stage reopening. Stage four was hit one week ago. Cases are accelerating in dramatic fashion, mostly in the 20-30 year old age group. My sense is after a month of strict rules for stages one and two, many let their guard down.

Fat hurts wrote:

1100 wrote:

Not sure how that makes sense. 5x the number of people in Italy, more than 5x the resources.

Why can 5 nations with 66 million people each do tracing but 1 nation with 330 million cannot (beyond mere incompetence)?

Nations still need to do test/trace/isolate. But a larger nation can not rely on that as its only tool. It just won't scale until you bring the number of cases down significantly.

I don't agree with the scaling argument. I really don't think it makes any sense.

Unless of course you are talking about active cases per capita. Yes, we have to bring down cases per capita to a much lower level. But once a nation of 330 million brings its active cases per capita down to say, under 0.5 per thousand (you could pick a different number if you wish), then I see no reason at all why they cannot test/trace/isolate as effectively as a nation of 66 million with active cases at 0.5 per thousand. (no reason aside from incompetence, that is)

GA Gal wrote:

agip wrote:

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Trying to shut down a nation of 330 million didn’t work. What else ya’ll got?

My, what a clever and insightful response!

No, I mean that, you are really, really clever!

GA Gal wrote:

agip wrote:

serioulsy, the problems of scale in a nation of 300 million people make tracing very difficult and probably next to impossible.

Trying to shut down a nation of 330 million didn’t work. What else ya’ll got?

It worked in China. And they have 1.39 billion.

I think most everyone agrees an indefinite lockdown is unsustainable and that we have to get the economy going again. But the federal government, some states (my home state Texas), and a significant portion of the population seem to have the attitude that we should basically ignore the pandemic and just suffer whatever deaths and illness result.

People however, ignore the psychology of such an approach. If a concerted effort to test and contact trace and to follow the CDC guidelines for re-opening is not diligently pursued and the numbers of cases/deaths/illness continue to rise as a result, then a lot of people won’t go to restaurants, go to movies, travel, etc. because they don’t feel it’s safe to do so. And the economy will continue to stagnate no matter how much we re-open. All the chest-beating bravado and mockery of people wary of the virus will not fill restaurants, theaters, planes, and hotels.

the thing is...the number of deaths across is crashing. Falling by huge numbers. the chart line looks like a 45 degree angle. To my knowledge no state has a large and materially rising death count. Does that change your opinion?

We’ll see if the number of deaths in the places where cases are increasing continues to fall. But it doesn’t change my opinion. If people think the risk of contracting the virus is still increasing, it’s not going to make them eager to go out to restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. For example, I’m still minimizing outside exposure even though I personally am not worried at all about dying from the virus. But I don’t want to get it and then give it to my elderly parents, my kids with respiratory problems, or my similarly-vulnerable friends and colleagues.

1100 wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Nations still need to do test/trace/isolate. But a larger nation can not rely on that as its only tool. It just won't scale until you bring the number of cases down significantly.

I don't agree with the scaling argument. I really don't think it makes any sense.

Unless of course you are talking about active cases per capita. Yes, we have to bring down cases per capita to a much lower level. But once a nation of 330 million brings its active cases per capita down to say, under 0.5 per thousand (you could pick a different number if you wish), then I see no reason at all why they cannot test/trace/isolate as effectively as a nation of 66 million with active cases at 0.5 per thousand. (no reason aside from incompetence, that is)

Yes, I think we agree.