Why Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market
Ted Jenkin
Wed, May 22, 2024, 9:00 AM CDT5 min read
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Many Americans still don’t realize that we have a bifurcated tax system.
One tax table is focused on taxing Americans on their ordinary income, the income you earn from your job or your business.
The other tax table is focused on taxing your long-term capital gains, meaning assets that have grown in appreciation, such as stocks or your business value held more than 365 days.
Under the new proposed Biden tax plan, 10 states would have more than a 50% capital gains tax, with California being the highest at 57.9%.
With thousands of pages in the tax code, it’s nearly impossible for most Americans to really understand how they are taxed, let alone understand the nuances between capital gains, ordinary income tax and how that could affect your personal economy and the stock market.
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According to a report issued by the Treasury Department, led by Secretary Janet Yellen, Biden’s proposed fiscal year 2025 budget would increase the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to an astonishing 44.6%.
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Today, that top marginal long-term capital gains rate is at 23.8%. Do NOT get fooled when you hear or read that the increase is ONLY a 20.8% increase, when in fact it would be an 87.4% increase!
Here’s the breakdown of how this tax would increase by almost 100%.
First, the top ordinary income marginal tax rate would increase from 37% today to a future rate of 39.6%.
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Second, the top long-term capital gains marginal tax rate would adjust to the top ordinary income marginal tax rate, meaning it would move from 20% to 39.6% for capital gains.
Third, let’s remember recent relevant history with the tax code. The Affordable Care Act was signed into law on March 23, 2010, and instituted the ObamaCare surtax of 3.8%, or what is known as the net investment income tax (NIIT). It took two years later for the Supreme Court to render a decision about whether this tax was even constitutional, and it finally went into effect on Jan. 1, 2013.
The most important part of this tax centered on what types of income are subject to this new tax. Gains from the sale of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, investment real estate and interests in partnerships and S corporations were all under the umbrella of NIIT. The president is now proposing that this tax moves from 3.8% to 5%.
If you add the proposed 39.6% capital gains tax plus the 5% NIIT, it is how the overall 44.6% would be enacted if the current administration has its way.