Down goes the Dow

I am still shorting SOX without success. Limiting my downside to a 1.75% portfolio position currently. Add or reduce in accordance with performance.

LOL. Nvidia stock rise vs Hunter Biden high and racing at 170 MPH. Now that would be a stock market comparison.

My bet would still be on Nvidia. Yeah, it's moving that fast!

LOL. nice one!

Funny. I was off quite a bit on NVDA “AI” mentions:

“AI was mentioned 86 times on Nvidia's conference call, beating out 52 mentions on Alphabet's (GOOGL. O) call and 35 mentions on Microsoft's (MSFT. O) call.”—Reuters.

My worry would be that the trend seems to be investors very eager to buy on any dips for the last few weeks. It seems stock prices now show a real reluctance to buy at the top of this sustained runs, having come so far so fast. That means a lot of buyers eager and will buy and offer support for the slightest dip - and that is not a good shorting opportunity.

Trend is up. Strong support on the dips. I don't know how that could be good for shorts.

Then again, it could turn out like:

Solid piece from a year ago from Bill Ackman. This was during a low point in stocks.

Said buy quality stocks but hedge interest rate risk.

This was a good call: SP500 up 18% since, and interest rates also up a lot, as he predicted.

Ackman seems to have meant that the economy would grow in nominal terms because of inflation, which would help stocks, but the Fed was signalling a strong fight against inflation. Both accurate.

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @BillAckman on Thread Reader App

@BillAckman

@BillAckman: Over the past two weeks, rates have declined dramatically purportedly due to fears of a recession. Friday’s move was particularly stunning for the scale of the move and for the degree of intraday volati...…

Link:threadreaderapp.com/thread/15440577860...

another analyst here who trusted too much in the leading econ indicator.s. From March 2023:

Christophe Barraud🛢🐳
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 *US FEB. LEADING INDICATOR FALLS 0.3% M/M; EST. -0.3% (11th straight contraction) - BBG
*On a YoY basis, the index fell 6.5% (largest decline since June 2020)
*Usually, this level is associated with #recession in the coming months.

and our old ursine friend Peter schiff. A year ago he called for a very deep recession, although he doesn't seem to have put a date on it.

Schiff said buy gold and dividend stocks. He made money but less than the market, by a lot.

Gold +6%

Div stocks +5%

SP500 +18%

Ackman 1

Schiff 0

finance.yahoo.com

‘This recession will be the most severe yet’: Peter Schiff called the 2008 financial crash and now says the next downturn will be even worse. Here's what he likes for safety

Schiff publicly predicted the great financial crash of 2008. Will he be right again?

Link:finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-most-...

2020 annual revenue was $274 billion. For 12 months ending March 31, 2023 was $385 billion.

Have these Permabears EVER posted anything positive about the market?!?

Warren Buffet has 46% of his portfolio in AAPL. I have more faith in him than I do with Fred Hickey or G Stockus.

hedgefollow.com

Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio | Warren Buffett 13F Holdings & Trades

Heatmaps of the top 13f holdings and a list of the largest trades made by Berkshire Hathaway, the hedge fund managed by Warren Buffett.

Link:hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaw...

Interesting article ...

finance.yahoo.com

Is Apple really worth $3 trillion? The math suggests no.

Apple now towers as a textbook case of a stock so richly valued that its future returns will likely prove extremely poor.

Link:finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-really-wo...

Who is this clown? He’s just spewing lie after lie. Why would anyone tread this tripe?

Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through July 3, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 29.35%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 16.51% while France's CAC 40 finished in third with a YTD gain of 11.52%.