Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2023 (with 18 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 14 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
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agip wrote:
Here's a fun one. Literally AT THE BOTTOM on October 10. Almost to the very day and minute of that bottom, none other than Jaime Diamond says stocks might have another 20% to fall and we'd be in a recession in mid 2023. Stocks have risen strongly from that point and there is no sign of recession. There are no wizards. We're all blind and feeling around the elephant in the dark.
WSJ:
Jamie Dimon said he thinks the U.S. is heading for recession in the middle of next year and that stocks have much further to fall.
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO has for months been warning that booming consumer spending would collide with Federal Reserve rate hikes to throw the economy for a loop. The war in Ukraine, he has said, only adds to the uncertainty.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Mr. Dimon said in a CNBC interview Monday.
The S&P 500, he said, could fall another 20%. Still, the bank’s customers are still spending and borrowing at a healthy clip, he said, defying recession fears.Not only was he (and others) wrong - markets did not drop another 20% from there - the markets went exactly the other direction and the S&P is up a whopping 22%. The Nasdaq logging an even more impressive 27%!
The big question is can this continue. With the low inflation numbers coming in today and the likelihood of recession dimming, it seems that the markets are feeling that it may (continue).
Sally, your inclination to go all in with that portion of your portfolio is looking more reasonable with each passing session.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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Nasdaq has the best first half of the year since 1983!
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.10 -
seattle prattle wrote:
Nasdaq has the best first half of the year since 1983!
The people who got out of high-tech last year when NASDAQ was down 33% last year are definitely hurting now. Buy and hold!
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agip wrote:
Here's a fun one. Literally AT THE BOTTOM on October 10. Almost to the very day and minute of that bottom, none other than Jaime Diamond says stocks might have another 20% to fall and we'd be in a recession in mid 2023. Stocks have risen strongly from that point and there is no sign of recession. There are no wizards. We're all blind and feeling around the elephant in the dark.
WSJ:
Jamie Dimon said he thinks the U.S. is heading for recession in the middle of next year and that stocks have much further to fall.
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO has for months been warning that booming consumer spending would collide with Federal Reserve rate hikes to throw the economy for a loop. The war in Ukraine, he has said, only adds to the uncertainty.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Mr. Dimon said in a CNBC interview Monday.
The S&P 500, he said, could fall another 20%. Still, the bank’s customers are still spending and borrowing at a healthy clip, he said, defying recession fears.If Jamie Dimon's prediction had come to fruition, he would have been praised as a genius. Instead people will just forget he made that prediction in the first place.
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Better than Savers IPO?
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Sally Vix wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Nasdaq has the best first half of the year since 1983!
The people who got out of high-tech last year when NASDAQ was down 33% last year are definitely hurting now. Buy and hold!
Yeah, and you have to consider that tech has been the macro-story of the last 10 years, and that downturn was one of the few enticing entry points for those wanting in, but not wanting to do so at an all-time-high.
Sure looks obvious in retrospect. Like it always does.
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seattle prattle wrote:
.Looks like a good time to sell. Remember that Igy said AAPL will bottom out by the end of October and he’s never wrong. 😉
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Interesting comparison of Apple performance relative to other tech and nasdaq since the start of the downturn at the end of 2021.
Tech. as a sector is just now rebound to where it was before the downturn, almost exactly. Nasdaq as an index is still below that threshold. Tesla is under. A high flier AI stock like Nviidia is up by quite a bit. But Apple is also up also since then. Which to me is surprising because Apple actually withheld the downturn much better than the rest of the sector.
Apple stock appreciation has been very impressive, even relative to its sector. This is a bit of a surprise to me since it's more of a bellwether stock in the sector. And new products being announced haven't been all that greatly received or anything of that sort.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
At the beginning of this year, when the S & P was around 4,000, he talked about how the S & P could fall 50% to below 2000. It is at 4,450 now.
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Well, it is not earnings:
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seattle prattle wrote:
.I remember a while back when Wal Mart and Exxon were fighting it out for the company with the highest market cap - I think they both were around $400 billion then. Now we have a $3 trillion company.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
At the beginning of this year, when the S & P was around 4,000, he talked about how the S & P could fall 50% to below 2000. It is at 4,450 now.
A couple of points, Fed increased liquidity upon regional bank collapse, and Government still spending at a level that far exceeds tax receipts. Cost of money and labor remains high. It is still likely to be a very severe bear market, and the entire AI mania will pass like so many of these memes in recent years.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.01 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well, it is not earnings:
Oh?
Apple 2022 annual EPS was $6.11, a 8.91% increase from 2021.
Apple 2021 annual EPS was $5.61, a 71.04% increase from 2020.
Apple 2020 annual EPS was $3.28, a 10.44% increase from 2019.20 -
Apple spent $563 Billion in stock buybacks since 2010. Revenue growth since 2021 minuscule. So, all that is going on is multiple expansion. Hype basically. I do like my seven year old iPad and five year old iPhone.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Apple spent $563 Billion in stock buybacks since 2010. Revenue growth since 2021 minuscule. So, all that is going on is multiple expansion. Hype basically.
Apple annual revenue for 2022 was $394.328B, a 7.79% increase from 2021.
Apple annual revenue for 2021 was $365.817B, a 33.26% increase from 2020.
Apple annual revenue for 2020 was $274.515B, a 5.51% increase from 2019.20
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