A good level to look at is the S&P 500 2020 pre-Covid February peak, and the lows the following month. In a report earlier this week Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson put 2023 fair value at just under 3,200 or the pre-Covid peak. I think that still temains a very conservative downside target for this cycle, believing little other than liquidity from regional bank support
And when Mike Wilson's doomsday prediction of turbulent times in the market and a 2300 S & P never come to fruition, will you be back here saying he was wrong? Was HOZ wrong? Seriously, Igy. You have 10,000 predictions of a market collapse and when it doesn't come to fruition the doomsday predictors just go about with their business none the worse for wear.
Well at least I am consistent in what I believe. You on the other hand, like many posters here, once justified the market rise on “There is no alternative.” Now that T-Bill interest rates are 5% higher, it is the magic of AI. Really all you every do is mark the return to a 100 year time horizon and say that is your future. The era of free money is over, so using that metric is likely to be very disappointing to you. Not that I wish that for you, or anyone else. Heck, we have a bet, with six months to go. :-)
And when Mike Wilson's doomsday prediction of turbulent times in the market and a 2300 S & P never come to fruition, will you be back here saying he was wrong? Was HOZ wrong? Seriously, Igy. You have 10,000 predictions of a market collapse and when it doesn't come to fruition the doomsday predictors just go about with their business none the worse for wear.
Well at least I am consistent in what I believe. You on the other hand, like many posters here, once justified the market rise on “There is no alternative.” Now that T-Bill interest rates are 5% higher, it is the magic of AI. Really all you every do is mark the return to a 100 year time horizon and say that is your future. The era of free money is over, so using that metric is likely to be very disappointing to you. Not that I wish that for you, or anyone else. Heck, we have a bet, with six months to go. :-)
If something has consistently happened for 130 years without fail, I am fairly confident that it will happen again. The Dow has returned, on average, a return of about 11 or 12% (with dividends reinvested) over those 130 years. Anybody would be a fool to not go with that investment. Now, if there is something that happens where the return is no longer 11% over an extended period of time, I might abandon the Dow. But until then, I am happily enjoying my Dow returns (as well as the others).
That conventional view has won the day in recent years, driven by $Trillions in Fed liquidity, low interest rates, and $Trillions in Government stimulus and transfer payments. But you neglect to factor inflation not only in goods and services, but the affects on asset prices. It would be nice to isolate variables into a vacuum where one can pick or choose the ultimate outcome. There are many things people believe today as truths. Beyond the social costs of unhinged monetary policy, remains the fundamental balance of “you get what you pay for.”
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Igy - this clown HOZ predicted a year-end 2023 for the S & P of 1800-950 (currently at 4345) and a NADAQ 100 of around 6500 year-end 2023 (currently at 14,700). I would highly recommend you ignoring anything this guy says.
So, adding to my shorts this morning was a bad idea?
I feel so sorry for the people who have to share in the burden of your bad investing. There's other reasons I feel sorry for them, but I won't get into that here.
That conventional view has won the day in recent years, driven by $Trillions in Fed liquidity, low interest rates, and $Trillions in Government stimulus and transfer payments. But you neglect to factor inflation not only in goods and services, but the affects on asset prices. It would be nice to isolate variables into a vacuum where one can pick or choose the ultimate outcome. There are many things people believe today as truths. Beyond the social costs of unhinged monetary policy, remains the fundamental balance of “you get what you pay for.”
Isn’t the goal of investing to make money? In that case, one would be a fool not to take advantage of government monetary policy that results in positive investment returns. Sure, we can bemoan the possible social affect these policies may have, but from a pure investment point of view, these policies are good. Count me in.
That conventional view has won the day in recent years, driven by $Trillions in Fed liquidity, low interest rates, and $Trillions in Government stimulus and transfer payments. But you neglect to factor inflation not only in goods and services, but the affects on asset prices. It would be nice to isolate variables into a vacuum where one can pick or choose the ultimate outcome. There are many things people believe today as truths. Beyond the social costs of unhinged monetary policy, remains the fundamental balance of “you get what you pay for.”
Isn’t the goal of investing to make money? In that case, one would be a fool not to take advantage of government monetary policy that results in positive investment returns. Sure, we can bemoan the possible social affect these policies may have, but from a pure investment point of view, these policies are good. Count me in.
Oh, Damn It and that Damned Fed, Brandon, Yellen, and the rest!
Another up day - Nasdaq +1.65% and S&P +1.15% today.
Isn’t the goal of investing to make money? In that case, one would be a fool not to take advantage of government monetary policy that results in positive investment returns. Sure, we can bemoan the possible social affect these policies may have, but from a pure investment point of view, these policies are good. Count me in.
Oh, Damn It and that Damned Fed, Brandon, Yellen, and the rest!
Another up day - Nasdaq +1.65% and S&P +1.15% today.
I took advantage of the sale prices to add to SOXS and TECS. :-)
Well at least I am consistent in what I believe. You on the other hand….Really all you every do is mark the return to a 100 year time horizon and say that is your future.
Sounds like you are saying Sally is consistent too.
I took advantage of the sale prices to add to SOXS and TECS. :-)
SOXS is down 70% YTD. TECS is down 61% YTD. I am not sure I would be adding to those.
SOXS up 4% after market close on chip export restrictions. Meanwhile:
Reality check via @MorganStanley * 29% w/federal student loans confident they'll have enough money to start making payments w/o adjusting spending in other areas * 37% will need to cut their spending in other areas * A whopping 34% said they won't be able to make payments AT ALL https://t.co/Mn50XztinX
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) June 28, 2023
Here's a big one. 2.8 million views! Made on January 28, predicted a recession by now. Did not happen. Glossy pictures with circles and arrows on the back of each one...but no. No recession.
Alf @MacroAlf In 4-5 months, I expect the US to be in a recession. A thread. 1/
In 4-5 months, I expect the US to be in a recession.
Here's a quality prediction. In october 2022 B of A predicted CPI below 4% by now. The Fed thinks we're at around 3.2% on that number so we have a winner! This was probably considered a wildly optimistic prediction in october 2022.
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi BofA: Based on both the original and the updated forecasts YoY headline CPI inflation should fall below 4% by mid2023 and below 3% by Dec-2022 / early 2023.
BofA: Based on both the original and the updated forecasts YoY headline CPI inflation should fall below 4% by mid2023 and below 3% by Dec-2022 / early 2023. pic.twitter.com/rm732RcFRp
on 9/19/22 a morgan stanley analyst targeted SP500 at 3900 by today. We're a mighty 13% higher than that today. No bueno.
Seth Golden @SethCL Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson: 🔹Probability of our bear market bottom price targets of 3,400 (50%) 🔹And 3,000 if recession (40%) 🔹June 2023 price target remains 3,900
I took advantage of the sale prices to add to SOXS and TECS. :-)
SOXS is down 70% YTD. TECS is down 61% YTD. I am not sure I would be adding to those.
I wouldn't either, Sally. And triple leveraging on top of daily rebalancing can wreak havoc that is hard to recover from.
The little bounce that the chip export announcement afforded looks to have largely disappeared and markets just seem to be grinding higher still.
S&P and Nasdaq both in the green for another day.
EDIT: for clarification, the chip export announcement refers to limitations the WH placing on exports of semiconductor chips, and was a bounce (move up) for those shorting that sector.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 26, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 25.31%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 13.20% while France's CAC 40 finished in third with a YTD gain of 8.46%.
Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 26, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 25.31%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 13.20% while France's CAC 40 finished in third with a YTD gain of 8.46%.
Thought you might like to know this (courtesy of Kevin O'Leary) - over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return has been by dividends, not by capital appreciation. He said he would never buy a stock that doesn't pay dividends.
Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 26, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 25.31%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 13.20% while France's CAC 40 finished in third with a YTD gain of 8.46%.
Thought you might like to know this (courtesy of Kevin O'Leary) - over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return has been by dividends, not by capital appreciation. He said he would never buy a stock that doesn't pay dividends.
Balance that thought with Kevin O’Leary wearing a cheesy medallion while selling wine on QVC.
For More Information or to Buy: https://qvc.co/3GXiDA6Vintage Wine Estates Kevin O'Leary 3 or 12 Bottle Reserve Wines***SEE INDIVIDUAL ITEM NUMBERS FOR PRODU...