Weird how insistent the Fed is about more hikes. They think inflation is running at 3.0%, PCE, on a quarterly basis. Sure, core is higher. But seems to me the Fed is jawboning, trying not to get people so excited about a pivot that assets inflate and force more rate hikes.
Leaving Texas Fourth day of July Sun so hot, clouds so low The eagles filled the sky
Confirmed, we are living in a simulation; the Head of the most important Central Bank in the World is Deadhead!
Rep. Nickel shares his appreciation for Grateful Dead with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and asks how the Chair enjoyed the band's live concert as their recent iteration, Dead & Company.
Deny it as “strenuously” as you like it was obviously a bailout, and of the wealthy and connected.
You can argue it was a necessary bailout and you’d be wrong, but at least consistent and more honest. But you can’t argue it wasn’t one. https://t.co/kHMpZzRXFu
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2023 (with 10 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 9 S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 6 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Two months ago hedgies were, well, hedged up the wazoo. Not a great stance - market is up 5% from then and only traded a tiny bit lower from April 24, the date of this tweet. Hedge funds are destroyers of capital, on average. They deliver a product to consultants who need to appear smart, basically. With some exceptions.
Hedge Funds longest short $SPX Futures positioning since 2011. Historically everyone's a winner. Unfortunately shorts have to act quickly and if profitable incur that short-term capital gains tax. Longs just sit tight
Hedge Funds longest short $SPX Futures positioning since 2011.
Historically everyone's a winner. Unfortunately shorts have to act quickly and if profitable incur that short-term capital gains tax. Longs just sit tight $SPY$ES_F$NDX$DIApic.twitter.com/dAMyMajXPy
Here's Larry Summers in Oct 2022 saying it was foolish to say that inflation was cooling, esp in regards to thinking housing prices would bring down the overall inflation rate. he calls out Krugman by name for being too dovish and for bad methodology.
Not a huge fiasco of a prediction, but I think we all know that inflation has been subsiding and housing prices are a piece of that. But there is a big gap between core and headline inflation so this is a tough one to determine.
But the Fed thinks headline inflation is running at around 3.0% per year. that's pretty good.
Larry Summers thinks he is way smarter and better than he actually is.
I am disappointed by the tendentious & selective analysis of team transitory acolytes who keep finding new arguments for their conclusion that inflation is @ to subside & policy should be dovish. I focus on @paulkrugman because he is so clear & smart. 1/N https://t.co/hCEI9uEzWO
Here's a review of many institutional predictions for the SP500 for year-end 2023. Only halfway through the year so far but notable that we are already above most of the predictions. Been a remarkable year.
"My impression is that the current advance is a narrow, selective speculative blowoff – a bear market rally driven by fear of missing out on the resumption of a bubble that is actually in the early stage of collapse."
Here's a review of many institutional predictions for the SP500 for year-end 2023. Only halfway through the year so far but notable that we are already above most of the predictions. Been a remarkable year.
YTD for S & P about 13%. We pretty much always have a monster year after a year like 2022. I think we should see the S & P around 4700 year-end exceeding all of those predictions, except maybe one.
Here's a review of many institutional predictions for the SP500 for year-end 2023. Only halfway through the year so far but notable that we are already above most of the predictions. Been a remarkable year.
Igy - this clown HOZ predicted a year-end 2023 for the S & P of 1800-950 (currently at 4345) and a NADAQ 100 of around 6500 year-end 2023 (currently at 14,700). I would highly recommend you ignoring anything this guy says.
Here's a review of many institutional predictions for the SP500 for year-end 2023. Only halfway through the year so far but notable that we are already above most of the predictions. Been a remarkable year.
Igy - this clown HOZ predicted a year-end 2023 for the S & P of 1800-950 (currently at 4345) and a NADAQ 100 of around 6500 year-end 2023 (currently at 14,700). I would highly recommend you ignoring anything this guy says.
Igy - this clown HOZ predicted a year-end 2023 for the S & P of 1800-950 (currently at 4345) and a NADAQ 100 of around 6500 year-end 2023 (currently at 14,700). I would highly recommend you ignoring anything this guy says.
Here's a review of many institutional predictions for the SP500 for year-end 2023. Only halfway through the year so far but notable that we are already above most of the predictions. Been a remarkable year.
Igy - this clown HOZ predicted a year-end 2023 for the S & P of 1800-950 (currently at 4345) and a NADAQ 100 of around 6500 year-end 2023 (currently at 14,700). I would highly recommend you ignoring anything this guy says.
This guy just takes a red marker and draws a deep slant indicating a huge loss. Without fail. AAPL is at 186. He is predicting AAPL to be around $35 in 2024 or 2025. I would love to see that he is shorting AAPL right now.
A good level to look at is the S&P 500 2020 pre-Covid February peak, and the lows the following month. In a report earlier this week Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson put 2023 fair value at just under 3,200 or the pre-Covid peak. I think that still remains a very conservative downside target for this cycle, believing little other than liquidity from regional bank support justifies this bear market rally. If index earnings get as low as I think they will, as higher interest rates begin to bite, then the Covid lows of 2,300 become a more likely downside target. I think corresponding stock prices from that period give you reasonable downside target for stocks like Apple. This implies the greatest risk in the markets lies in the growth names, especially high multiple names like NVDA, TSLA, and AMZN.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
A good level to look at is the S&P 500 2020 pre-Covid February peak, and the lows the following month. In a report earlier this week Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson put 2023 fair value at just under 3,200 or the pre-Covid peak. I think that still temains a very conservative downside target for this cycle, believing little other than liquidity from regional bank support
And when Mike Wilson's doomsday prediction of turbulent times in the market and a 2300 S & P never come to fruition, will you be back here saying he was wrong? Was HOZ wrong? Seriously, Igy. You have 10,000 predictions of a market collapse and when it doesn't come to fruition the doomsday predictors just go about with their business none the worse for wear.
