Down goes the Dow

This is epically moronic. I’m embarrassed for this guy.

Likely path:

The responses are great!

"Good to know crazy bears still exist. RIP your account"

"Sounds like someone missed the huge run recently. Thoughts and prayers"

"Did u predict this exponential upclimb in stock mkt?
If no, then do not ruin other people's account"

"The copium is real for bears"

David Rosenberg is a respected economist - 240k followers on twitter. That's a lot for an economist.

Here he was in feb 23 saying we'd be in recession in the 2Q. he even used the word 'dustbin' in terms of the 'no landing' crowd. Which, in retrospect, was unwisely arrogant.

Instead we are cruising a long at a sweet spot of around 2% real econ growth.

To be fair, he did say 3Q could be the recession quarter. And labor is starting to weaken so that could happen.

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
The yield curve leads the econ cycle with a classic lag of just over a year. It inverted last summer, which means Q2 &/or Q3 have a bullseye on their foreheads. Our models peg GDP contraction next quarter & all these calls of “no landing” will be relegated to the dustbin.
7:35 AM · Feb 15, 2023
·
145.6K
Views

This analyst said on May 17 2023 that the NASD was at the level of exhaustion and issued a sell order. I think. The article is full of babble that I don't have the patience to unwind so I might be wrong.

But this is the kind of article that gets clicks and scares people into selling.

Instead of falling, the index rose a mighty 9.5% from this sell recommendation. If that is what it was. Apologies if I got it wrong.

The financial press costs people enormous amounts of money.

marketwatch.com

The Nasdaq is on the verge of exhaustion, says famed technical strategist Tom DeMark

@MKTWgoldstein

Stocks have climbed a mountain of worries this year, ranging from lingering inflation to bank collapses, to the possibility the U.S. Congress might just...

Link:www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-i...

3m

GME +47%

TSLA +42

ai Stocks +24

Tech +20

Comms Sector +18

Cons Discr +16

ARKK +15

Long Jim Cramer +15

SP500 +13

EM ex China +13

Developed Non-US +11

Sm Caps +10

Indus sector +10

Materials +9

Financials +9

COWZ +8

Value +8

Emerging +8

Energy +6

Healthcare +6

60/40: +6

REITs +5

Div Stocks +5

Junk +4

Short term junk +4

Cons Staples +4

Retail +4

Corp Bonds +1

Utils +1

TIPS 0

Treas -1

Gold -1

BTC -6

Hussman -7

SARK -15

Weed -16

PTON -19

This is just three months to get a sense of recent trends.

Emerging ex-china is very strong+13%. China really seems to be going through some things. I hope that brings it closer to the West as it needs econ ties. But more likely it means China will become bellicose as its government stirs nationalism to hide economic problems.

Obviously the tech rally is the biggest US trend, with ai stocks leading.

Bonds hanging in there despite rising rates...a 5% coupon covers up a lot of problems. So glad to be able to get that 5%...although it;s going to retard government spending on stuff, which may hurt stocks eventually.

Value still lagging, but catching up a bit.

All in all a very strong quarter.

Selected year to date

Tesla +112%

BTC +60%

ARKK +42

ai stocks +41

Tech +38

Cons Discr +27

SP500 +16

Non-US developed +13

EM ex-china +12

60/40 +9

Small caps +8

Emerging +8

Treasuries +2

Value +2

Energy -7

Hussman -10

Tech tech and more tech. But hard not make a lot of money in 2023 so far.

Apple was at around $42 5 years ago. It is around $185 now = you missed out big time.

We gave up reading anything from Hussman many years ago. Won't say he is a clown but his funds have been horrendously bad. Why would anyone trust this guy?

“The Nifty Fifty appeared to rise up from the ocean; it was as though all of the U.S. but Nebraska had sunk into the sea. The two-tier market really consisted of one tier and a lot of rubble down below. What held the Nifty Fifty up? The same thing that held up tulip-bulb prices long ago in Holland – popular delusions and the madness of crowds. The delusion was that these companies were so good that it didn’t matter what you paid for them; their inexorable growth would bail you out.”
– Forbes Magazine, 1977, The Nifty Fifty Revisited

Nice list but you forgot Hussman Strategic - it is tanking = hopefully Igy can get out before he loses everything.

If my fading memory serves me well, there just might be a bet that goes thru year end. :-)

I’m still waiting for my payoff from this February 2022 bet.

Euro markets tanked today